Earnings call transcript: Churchill Downs beats Q2 2025 forecasts, stock rises

Churchill Downs Incorporated (CHDN) reported its second-quarter earnings for 2025, showcasing a notable performance that exceeded market expectations. The company reported an earnings per share (EPS) of $2.99, surpassing the forecasted $2.96, marking a 1.01% surprise. Revenue also outperformed projections, reaching $934.4 million against the anticipated $919.53 million, a 1.62% surprise. Following the announcement, the stock rose 4.3% to $111 in pre-market trading, reflecting positive investor sentiment. According to InvestingPro analysis, CHDN currently appears undervalued, with a perfect Piotroski Score of 9, indicating strong financial health.

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Key Takeaways

• Q2 2025 revenue and EPS both exceeded expectations.
• Stock price increased by 4.3% in pre-market trading.
• Record net revenue and adjusted EBITDA achieved in Q2.
• New $500 million stock repurchase program announced.
• Continued growth anticipated in HRM markets and international expansion.

Company Performance

Churchill Downs reported an impressive quarter with all-time record figures in both net revenue and adjusted EBITDA. The company continues to leverage its dominant market position in horse racing and is actively expanding its presence internationally. Strategic investments in technology and venue improvements have kept the company on a growth trajectory, despite broader market challenges.

Financial Highlights

• Revenue: $934.4 million, up from forecasted $919.53 million
• Earnings per share: $2.99, exceeding the forecast of $2.96
• Adjusted EBITDA: $451 million, setting a new record for Q2
• Free cash flow in the first half of 2025: $455 million ($6.29 per share)
• Stock repurchase: Over $250 million in Q2, with a new $500 million program announced

Earnings vs. Forecast

Churchill Downs outperformed market expectations with an EPS of $2.99, compared to the forecast of $2.96, and a revenue of $934.4 million versus the expected $919.53 million. The EPS surprise of 1.01% and revenue surprise of 1.62% indicate a strong quarter, aligning with the company’s historical trend of exceeding forecasts.

Market Reaction

Following the earnings announcement, Churchill Downs’ stock rose by 4.3% to $111 in pre-market trading. This movement reflects investor confidence, bolstered by the company’s robust financial performance and strategic initiatives. The stock’s performance is notable given its 52-week range of $85.58 to $150.21. Analysts maintain a strong buy consensus with a median price target suggesting significant upside potential. The company’s Financial Health Score of 2.74 (GOOD) from InvestingPro supports this positive outlook.

Outlook & Guidance

The company anticipates continued growth in its HRM markets and is focusing on expanding its presence in New Hampshire. Looking forward, Churchill Downs expects a step-function growth for the Derby in 2026 and is targeting $50-60 million in tax savings from a new federal tax bill. The company has maintained dividend payments for 51 consecutive years and plans to maintain its current dividend growth of 7% per year, demonstrating a strong commitment to shareholder returns.

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Executive Commentary

CEO Bill Carstanjen emphasized the company’s commitment to shareholder value, stating, "We work for you. Our job is to drive shareholder value, to drive improvement." He also highlighted the importance of partnerships, saying, "This is about building win-win partnerships." CFO Marcia Dahl expressed confidence in the company’s growth prospects, stating, "We are well positioned to continue to grow through the remainder of 2025 and into 2026."

Risks and Challenges

• Market volatility and economic conditions could impact consumer spending.
• Regulatory changes in gambling and racing industries may pose challenges.
• Competition from other entertainment and gambling options.
• Potential operational disruptions from ongoing renovations and expansions.
• Dependence on the success of key events like the Kentucky Derby.

Q&A

During the earnings call, analysts inquired about the potential of the New Hampshire market and the company’s sponsorship strategy. Executives highlighted the growth runway for HRM markets in Kentucky and Virginia and addressed questions about the impact of prediction markets on their business strategy.

Full transcript - Churchill Downs Incorporated (CHDN) Q2 2025:

Conference Operator: Day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Churchill Downs Incorporated twenty twenty five Second Quarter Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen only mode. Later, we will conduct a question and answer session and instructions will be given at that time. We ask all question and answer participants to please limit themselves to one question. As a reminder, this conference call is being recorded.

I would now like to introduce your host for today’s conference, Mr. Sam Ulrich, Vice President, Investor Relations.

Sam Ulrich, Vice President, Investor Relations, Churchill Downs Incorporated: Thank you, Andrew. Good morning, and welcome to our second quarter twenty twenty five earnings conference call. After the company’s prepared remarks, we will open the call for your questions. The company’s twenty twenty five second quarter business results were released yesterday afternoon. A copy of this release announcing results and other financial and statistical information about the period to be presented in this conference call, including information required by Regulation G, is available at the section of the company’s website titled News located at churchilldownsincorporated.com as well as in the website’s Investors section.

Before we get started, I would like to remind you that some of the statements that we make today may include forward looking statements. These statements involve a number of risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially. All forward looking statements should be considered in conjunction with the cautionary statements in our earnings release and the risk factors included in our filings with the SEC, specifically the most recent reports on Form 10 Q and Form 10 ks. Any forward looking statements that we make are based on assumptions as of today, and we undertake no obligation to update these statements as a result of new information or future events. During this call, we will present both GAAP and non GAAP financial measures.

A reconciliation of GAAP to non GAAP measures is included in yesterday’s earnings press release. The press release and Form 10 Q are available on our website at churchilldownsincorporated.com. And now I’ll turn the call over to our Chief Executive Officer, Mr. Bill Carstangean. Thanks, Sam.

Good morning, everyone. With me today are several members of our team, including Bill Mudd, our President and Chief Operating Officer Marcia Dahl, our Chief Financial Officer, and Brad Blackwell, our General Counsel. I will share an update on growth plans for our company, including with respect to the Kentucky Derby and our HRM businesses,

Bill Carstanjen, Chief Executive Officer, Churchill Downs Incorporated: And then Marsha will provide insight into our financial results as well as an update on our capital management strategy. After she finishes, we will take your questions. First, regarding our second quarter results. We delivered all time record net revenue of $934,000,000 and all time record adjusted EBITDA of $451,000,000 This is the fifth consecutive second quarter that we have set records for net revenue and adjusted EBITDA. Now let’s talk about our growth plans for the company, both near term and long term.

First, regarding our plans to grow Derby Week and Churchill Downs Racetrack. Over the last decade, we have expanded the Kentucky Derby into a weeklong celebration. In 2024, we delivered 20% growth, dollars 30,000,000 of incremental adjusted EBITDA in one year. Given 2024 was our one hundred and fiftieth running of the Derby, it proved to be a strong comparison for us to beat this year, particularly given the weather we then experienced on Derby Day. And yet, we achieved nearly the same level of adjusted EBITDA in 2025 for Churchill Downs Racetrack as we did in 2024.

We expect to show meaningful growth with the Derby in 2026 and beyond based primarily on five catalysts. The first is ticketing revenue driven by unique premium experiences. Derby week begins with opening night on the Saturday before the Kentucky Derby. We then have three days of racing and events on Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday, each separately themed and promoted before culminating with the Kentucky Oaks on Friday and the Kentucky Derby on the May. This year, we had over 370,000 people attend Derby Week.

This is comparable to hosting five Super Bowls over the course of one week. Shaping the Kentucky Derby experience to be a week a week of spectacular racing and events gives us a range of different price points over the various days to attract, develop, and segment our customers with the finale, the Kentucky Derby itself, where we have proven our ability to design and segment customer experiences at an entirely different level. The demand for the Kentucky Derby and for Derby Week tickets is growing. We will continue to deliver special customer experiences while selectively and thoughtfully pricing them based on rising customer demand, especially for our premium offerings. We expect that this approach will continue to generate meaningful adjusted EBITDA growth for Derby Week going forward.

The second driver of long term growth for Derby Week is our broadcast rights. We have had a long standing successful relationship with NBC. This year, that partnership delivered record breaking results. Average viewership for the broadcast reached nearly 18,000,000, a 6% increase over 2024, and peak viewership climbed to almost 22,000,000 people, up 8% from last year’s record. These are the highest Derby viewership numbers we’ve seen in decades, highlighting not only the strength of our media partnership, but also the continued growth in the cultural relevance and reach of the event.

We also had over 285,000,000 social media impressions during Derby Week, a 67% increase from 2024. The interest in Derby Week has simply never been higher. In April, we negotiated a new seven year contract with NBC that begins next year with the one hundred and fifty second Derby. This will provide a $10,000,000 increase in adjusted EBITDA for 2026. We were thrilled to announce that NBC will, for the first time, broadcast the Kentucky Oaks race during prime time on national television in 2026.

The race will be run during the 08:00 to 09:00 hour on Friday night, May first. Previously, the race had been run between five and 6PM and televised on an affiliated cable network with more limited distribution and viewership. We believe the move to prime time coverage on NBC will serve as a catalyst for increased viewership and wagering. This enhanced visibility also strengthens the events appeal to current and prospective sponsors. Positioning the Oaks in prime time also creates a compelling lead in to the Kentucky Derby, further amplifying awareness, engagement, and wagering around our flagship event.

The third driver of long term growth is wagering. This year, we once again set all time records for wagering on the Derby race, the full Derby Day program, and Derby Week as a whole. Wagering on the Derby race was up 11% over last year’s all time high. Derby Day wagering increased 9% over the previous record, and wagering for derby week rose 6% above last year’s benchmark. By continuing to attract the best horses from around the world and benefiting from the derby’s expanding cultural relevance, we are seeing consistent growth in wagering across the week.

This also helps our TwinSpires horse racing business to attract both serious as well as casual betters. TwinSpires horse racing set records this year for wagering, new registrations, and active players during Derby Week. Our partnerships with FanDuel and DraftKings also set new Derby Week wagering records. We intend to continue building on these positive trends. The fourth driver of Derby Week growth is sponsorship and licensing.

Sponsorships of the Derby grew in 2025, and we expect it will continue to grow as we expand our national and global reach through our on-site attendance, television and online audiences, social media reach, and other growth initiatives. And finally, the fifth driver is selective renovations and expansions through capital investment. Over the last decade, we have made a series of strategic capital investments at Churchill Downs Racetrack aimed at elevating the guest experience during Derby Week and broadening our appeal to new audiences. These investments have and will deliver best in class returns for our investors. We successfully completed the Starting Gate Pavilion and Courtyard project on time and on budget for this year’s Derby.

Feedback from our guests in these newly remodeled areas has been overwhelmingly positive, with many noting the significant elevated experiences. We are confident this project will generate strong returns for our shareholders as our customers experience and then spread the word about the improvements we’ve made to this section of our venue. We are making excellent progress on the renovations of two of our most prestigious and exclusive areas, the Finish Line Suites and the Mansion. We expect both previously announced projects to be completed on time and on budget for Derby Week twenty twenty six. We are also deep into planning for our next project, which will be focused on the area between the First Turn Building and the Sky Terrace.

This is an exciting undertaking for us, and we will have more to share with you on our next earnings call, so stay tuned. Strategic investments will remain a key part of our long term strategy for the Kentucky Derby as we seek to constantly improve our guest experience. In summary, we anticipate that we will generate step function growth for Derby Week in 2026 based on growth in ticket revenue, from pricing, and from the strategic investments we have made, as well as from the new NBC contract, increased wagering, and growth in sponsorships and licensing. Churchill Downs Racetrack and the Kentucky Derby remain the crown jewel in our portfolio, and we’re excited about the strong foundation these growth catalysts provide for a vibrant and successful future. Next, turning to our HRM progress, first in Virginia.

As expected, we have seen continued progress during the second quarter from the Rose. It’s really encouraging because we are still in the early innings. HRM facilities in new markets like Northern Virginia take time to attract, develop, and retain customers. We saw meaningful growth in the gross gaming revenues each month during the quarter when normalized for calendar differences, and we are continuing to build our customer database. In Central Virginia, we are on schedule and on budget with our growth project at the Richmond HRM venue.

We expanded our gaming floor in May and expect to complete the remaining phase in just a few weeks. We continue to make great progress in building the Roshire gaming parlor in Henrico County. We are excited for the planned opening of this upscale entertainment venue in October, ahead of schedule and on budget. In Kentucky, we are progressing well on the Marshall Yards HRM facility in Calvert City. This will be an important addition to our portfolio of entertainment properties in the Commonwealth.

We are planning to open this venue during the 2026 on budget and on time. In New Hampshire, we were thrilled to announce last week the execution of definitive transaction documents to acquire 90% of the Casino Salem project located in the mall at Rockingham Park in Salem, New Hampshire, close to the Massachusetts border at Exit 2 on Interstate 93. We intend to develop a state of the art gaming and entertainment destination to draw patrons to Salem from across the significant New England market and to support charitable organizations throughout New Hampshire. Currently, there is a temporary facility operating 100 HRMs and 13 table games. We are targeting to close the transaction in the third quarter and then we’ll share more details on our future development plans.

In the near term, we anticipate continuing to operate our Chasers poker room in Salem and we have retained the rights to the associated HRM license. We will evaluate and pursue viable alternative uses for the second HRM license, which will potentially be an exciting additional opportunity. Turning to Exacta. Our Exacta business has grown through the expansion of our HRM operations in Kentucky and Virginia, as well as through our third party relationships in Kentucky, New Hampshire, and Wyoming. For our HRM operations, the X ACTA technology enables us to better optimize our gaming floor and reduce the technology fees charged to our venues.

For our third party relationships, the X ACTA technology enables state of the art HRMs with a high level of service from our team to support their ongoing expansion and growth. We will grow our X ACTA business in New Hampshire as part of our Salem Casino development. X ACTA technology is already supporting the temporary facility. Our technology also be will also be utilized in a new third party facility in Wichita, Kansas, which is projected to open later this year or early next year. We are excited to support the expansion of HRMs in this new market.

We continue to seek the right to implement HRM based electronic table games. We have developed a new HRM roulette product with Interblock and look forward to expanding our suite of games with them. We believe this will be a great enhancement to the guest experience and will provide additional support for the horse racing industry in the future. We are working to gain approval with the appropriate state authorities. In summary, the second quarter delivered another strong performance with record financial results and we believe the best is still to come.

Churchill Downs Racetrack and the Kentucky Derby are truly unique trophy assets with powerful growth catalysts for the future. Beyond that, we see important growth drivers across our HRM properties and jurisdictions and our Wagering Services and Solutions segment. And as we are demonstrating with the Salem project, we continue to identify and execute high quality growth initiatives that strengthen our business and generate strong returns for our investors. Our strategic decision making, disciplined capital allocation, strong balance sheet and diversified portfolio of high performing assets have positioned us well to drive sustainable long term growth. With that, I’ll turn the call over to Marcia, and then we will take your questions.

Marcia?

Marcia Dahl, Chief Financial Officer, Churchill Downs Incorporated: Thanks, Bill, and good morning, everyone. I’ll start with a few insights into our financial results and then provide an update on capital management. First, regarding second quarter financial results. As Bill shared, we delivered all time record second quarter revenue and adjusted EBITDA. Our Live and Historical Racing segment delivered all time record second quarter revenue and adjusted EBITDA.

This segment represented nearly two thirds of our adjusted EBITDA for the quarter. The $17,000,000 or 6% growth in adjusted EBITDA compared to the prior year quarter was driven primarily by our HRM growth in Kentucky and Virginia. Churchill Downs Racetrack was down $1,000,000 which is less than 1% driven by a very high prior year comp as a result of running the one hundred and fiftieth Kentucky Derby last year. The Derby delivered tremendous growth in 2024 And as Bill discussed, we expect the Derby to deliver step function growth and adjusted EBITDA again in 2026. All of our HRM properties in Kentucky delivered growth in the second quarter compared to the prior year.

We had especially strong performance from our Northern Kentucky and Louisville HRM venues and we also benefited from the opening of the Owensboro, Kentucky HRM venue in February. The consumer trends in these markets were strong for the quarter. In Virginia, our Northern Virginia, Richmond and Emporia properties collectively delivered over 8,000,000 of growth compared to the prior year. As expected, our Virginia handle tax rate was higher for the quarter compared to the prior year quarter due to the gaming tax structure and the increase in the number of HRMs we have since we opened the Rose in November. Our handle tax rate will transition from 1.39% to 1.3% effective July 1.

Collectively, our remaining Virginia properties were down $3,000,000 reflecting a comparison to a strong second quarter in 2024, as well as marginally from competition near a few of our properties that reduced the level of unrated play. It is important to note that rated play at these Virginia properties reflected strong growth across all our metrics. Overall, we generated a combined 52% margin during the quarter for our same store Virginia properties. Our Wagering Services and Solutions segment also delivered record second quarter revenue and adjusted EBITDA. Adjusted EBITDA grew by nearly $2,000,000 or 4% compared to the prior year quarter.

The Exacta business contributed over $3,000,000 of this increase from both third party customers and growth from our Virginia and Kentucky HRM properties. Our TwinSpires horseracing revenue benefited from a record level of wagering on Derby Week. Adjusted EBITDA for TwinSpires was down slightly due to higher legal expenses compared to the prior year quarter. And last, regarding our gaming segment, our wholly owned regional gaming properties performed relatively well in the second quarter. Regarding our Terre Haute Casino and Resort in Indiana, it is important to note that we benefited from the initial gaming tax rate in the second quarter of the prior year due to the tiered structure of Indiana’s gaming tax rates in the state’s fiscal year ending June 30.

The gaming tax rate has since normalized at the expected long term rate. Regarding Louisiana, we’ve moved approximately 500 HRM machines from Louisiana to our HRM properties in Virginia and Kentucky. This will impact the comparability of our Louisiana results to the prior year. Our adjusted EBITDA for our eight other wholly owned gaming properties decreased $3,100,000 As a result, the casino margin for these properties was down 1.3 points compared to the same period in 2024. Regional gaming consumer behavior in second quarter improved.

Overall, for our same store regional gaming properties, we saw increased spend per trip from rated players with the high end of our player database delivering growth, while unrated player trends were comparable to the prior quarter. Turning to capital management, we generated $455,000,000 or $6.29 per share of free cash flow in the first half of the year, primarily from the strong cash flow generated from our businesses. We spent $31,000,000 on maintenance capital in the first half of the year. And based on a review of our maintenance capital plans for the year, we’ve reduced our 2025 maintenance capital projection by $10,000,000 to $80,000,000 to $90,000,000 We spent $133,000,000 on project capital in the first half of the year and continue to expect to spend between $250,000,000 and $290,000,000 in 2025. Turning to share repurchases, we repurchased over $250,000,000 of our stock in the second quarter under our share repurchase program.

This week, we announced that our board approved a new common stock repurchase program of up to $500,000,000 This reflects our strong belief in the future growth of our company. At the end of second quarter, our bank covenant net leverage was 4.2 times. Based on our capital investments and anticipated share repurchases, we expect our bank covenant net leverage to remain in the low four times range for the remainder of the year. We then expect our bank covenant net leverage to decline below four point zero times in 2026 as our investments in Virginia and Kentucky continue to deliver meaningful adjusted EBITDA and free cash flow and given our expected level of share repurchases. We also expect improvement in our free cash flow from favorable cash taxes because of the federal tax bill that was signed on July 4.

The new tax provisions include making the 21 business tax rate and 100% bonus depreciation rule permanent. The federal tax bill also reinstates a 30% of EBITDA based interest deduction limitation. The additional interest deductions, combined with 100% bonus depreciation will reduce our cash taxes and increase our free cash flow this year and in future years. We expect that the impact of lower cash tax payments in 2025 will be $50,000,000 to $60,000,000 Overall, we are pleased with the record results that our team delivered in the second quarter. We are well positioned to continue to grow through the remainder of 2025 and into 2026 and beyond, fueled by the tangible pipeline of growth initiatives that Bill discussed and supported by our strong balance sheet.

With that, I’ll turn the call back over to Bill so that he can open the call for questions. Bill?

Bill Carstanjen, Chief Executive Officer, Churchill Downs Incorporated: Thanks, Marsha. Okay, everyone. We’re ready to take your questions.

Conference Operator: And our first question comes from the line of Barry Jonas with Truist.

Barry Jonas, Analyst, Truist: Hey, guys. Good morning. I really appreciate all the commentary around the setup for growth at the Derby next year. As we think about the setup for 152 year over year, maybe talk about your expectations around pricing at the lower end, specifically at the starting gate pavilion?

Bill Carstanjen, Chief Executive Officer, Churchill Downs Incorporated: Sure. Thanks. Thanks for the question, Barry. So, last year was the introduction of the starting gate, pavilion, and and it received rave reviews. So consistent with with what we often see, the word gets out.

People have now had a chance to experience, the improvements, and there’s a chance for for word-of-mouth to spread and and that’ll show up, we expect, in in demand and pricing for for that section. So in general, we’re excited about that and expect that to be consistent with what we see when we do introduce new areas of our facility.

Conference Operator: Thank you. And our next question comes from the line of David Katz with Jefferies.

Barry Jonas, Analyst, Truist: Morning. Thanks for taking my questions. Bill, appreciate all the commentary around New Hampshire. I’d love to get just a little bigger discussion around how you see that market evolving in terms of the magnitude of investment, the opportunity for returns, What’s the competitive landscape look like? What’s the vision there?

Bill Carstanjen, Chief Executive Officer, Churchill Downs Incorporated: Good morning, David. Thanks for the question. So first, I’d say that when that deal is closed, we’ll be able to explain a lot more about our plans. But since we’re in this stage where the transaction documents are signed, but we’re going through the various approval processes, There’s some restriction of my ability to talk completely about our plans, but I promise as we get the deal closed, we’ll disclose quite a lot about our plans. But let’s talk in general.

When you think about our location in, Salem, we’re on Exit 2 on I-ninety 3, which is a major interstate artery, coming out of Downtown Boston and running up through the suburbs. And when we think about that market in general, while there are lines on the map delineating the New Hampshire border from Massachusetts, that’s all one market. So this is an opportunity for us to tap in not only to the New Hampshire, suburbs, but also to the Massachusetts, suburbs, for Boston. So we think it’s a very strong market. The demographics both in terms of the number of people and the wealth are there.

Our location at the Rockingham Park Mall is a great location with us with a dedicate dedicated ingress and egress, off the freeway. So it’s easy to reach. It’s a powerful mall that services, the Massachusetts suburbs. So we couldn’t be more excited about the location and and and the the ease of access to the facility. So for this, it will be an HRM facility, but also we have full table games.

So we’re very competitive with what, what you have with the Wynn property in the Boston market and with other facilities in the region. So we just think we have, the best and brightest spot on the New Hampshire side from which to conduct our business.

Conference Operator: Thank you. And our next question comes from the line of Chad Beynon with Macquarie.

Barry Jonas, Analyst, Truist: Hi, good morning. Thanks for taking my question. Bill, I wanted to just circle back on some of the stats and kind of the outlook for the Derby. Focusing more on international attendance, which I think we’ve talked about now for for a couple years. How is what is the plan going forward and what’s the focus to grow that and maybe a sidebar of that When you spoke about some of these impressions on social media, I’m guessing most of those were domestically.

But does it feel like just kind of the international marketing has improved over the past couple of years? Thank you.

Bill Carstanjen, Chief Executive Officer, Churchill Downs Incorporated: Yeah. Thanks, Chad. So one of the advantages of Thoroughbred racing is it’s a global game. In most large industrialized societies that you go to around the world, you see thoroughbred activity. So that’s a huge start head start for us as we build the international component of the Kentucky Derby because they’re already familiar with the Derby.

They know it’s America’s greatest race and arguably the greatest race in the world. So this isn’t a product or this isn’t a brand that we have to introduce to the market, but it is one we have to develop in these different markets. And, that’s a multiyear process, it started with our roads to the Derby, you know, the European and now the European and Middle Eastern road to the Derby, the Japanese road to the Derby. These have all been steps, to solidify our connection to some of these other markets and to build, inroads to not only consumers there, particularly, high end consumers. That’s really the basket of consumers we’re most focused on internationally, but also to sponsorships, and potential sponsors.

So this is, an initiative internally that’s very, very important to us. That’s, a real focus for us, and I hope will show, real progress as early as 2026. So, with respect to social media, yes, the stats we tend to cite are US stats, but we are also, building and developing, social media inroads internationally as well. And as as we have stats on those going forward, we’ll certainly share those with you.

Conference Operator: Thank you. And our next question comes from the line of Dan Politzer with JPMorgan.

Dan Politzer, Analyst, JPMorgan: Hey, good morning, everyone. Thanks for taking my question. I wanted to touch on the federal tax bill. Marcia, it was helpful you laid out some of the impacts in 2025. I think you said 50,000,000 to $60,000,000 in cash tax savings.

Is this a bit of a two parter? One, is there can we just kind of extrapolate that and kind of for 2026 or the best way to think about it? And then along those lines, in terms of your cash flow and capital allocation, obviously, you announced a $500,000,000 repurchase. You were active in the second quarter. How are you thinking about returning capital to shareholders from here, just given that that Derby CapEx is still paused?

Thanks.

Marcia Dahl, Chief Financial Officer, Churchill Downs Incorporated: Great. Dan, thank you for the question. When we think about the taxable impact for 2026, we will benefit from the fact that we get 100% bonus depreciation again in 2026, And we will also benefit from the fact that we believe nearly all 100% of our interest will be deductible as well for tax purposes in 2026. So our current estimates and obviously it could change is that it will be comparable to the number that I shared regarding the 2025 impact of 50,000,000 to $60,000,000 Regarding share repurchases, as Bill talked and as we’ve talked in the past, we have a great strategy around capital management overall. Our real focus is investing in the Derby over the long term.

We’re investing very strategically to create great HRM venues, especially in Kentucky and in Virginia and now in New Hampshire. We’re very excited about that opportunity. We are very thoughtful about strategically buying and selling assets over our journey together over the last ten years. And we have a very significant focus on making sure we grow our dividend seven percent per year. That’s been a pretty consistent track record for us.

And then after all of that, we think about share repurchases in particular around investing and returning capital to our shareholders when our stock isn’t reflective in the market of what we believe the true long term value is and generally, definitely where it’s accretive to EPS and free cash flow. So we’re very focused on making all of the right choices to support the long term growth and returns for our shareholders.

Conference Operator: Thank you. And our next question comes from the line of Daniel Guglielmo with Capital One Securities.

Daniel Guglielmo, Analyst, Capital One Securities: Hello, everyone. Thank you for taking my question. On the HRM side of things, Kentucky had a really strong quarter and Virginia is ramping. Can you just give us a sense of how long the runway is for those two states to continue to grow demand? When thinking about those markets, is the maturity phase even on the horizon?

Bill Carstanjen, Chief Executive Officer, Churchill Downs Incorporated: Dan, thanks for the question. I think there’s still a substantial runway that’s for us to prove in the future, but our metrics look really good, and there’s a lot of cause for optimism. So we’ll keep executing. Our teams are really strong in both those jurisdictions, and, we have our game plan. We have our our processes, and and we’ll keep firing ahead.

But so far, when we look at our metrics, we see lots of cause for optimism and evidence that we need to keep doing more of what we’re doing.

Conference Operator: Thank you. And our next question comes from the line of Jordan Bender with Citizens.

Jordan Bender/Jeff Stanchell, Analyst, Citizens/Stifel: Good morning, everyone. Thanks for taking the question. I want go in a direction here that maybe isn’t talked about as much with your company, and that’s the prediction markets in horse racing. Bill, there’s laws out there like the Interstate Horse Racing Act to protect the industry. So curious with the direction that prediction markets are headed, kind of what’s your view around that offering, particularly around how it might impact the Derby?

Thank you.

Bill Carstanjen, Chief Executive Officer, Churchill Downs Incorporated: Sure, Jordan. Happy to talk about that. That’s a that’s a subject that I I personally pay a lot of attention to. It’s a fascinating subject, and I’m on the executive committee of the American Gaming Association, and that’s an audience where we where we talk about those sorts of things. With respect to the Kentucky Derby and horseracing, we haven’t seen it.

And I think the nature of of pari mutuel wagering on horse racing doesn’t make it as an attractive target for prediction market activity. So we haven’t really seen it, and it isn’t something that, we’re real concerned about. And certainly, there is also, the important element of the Interstate Horse Racing Act, which essentially gives us an intellectual property right and the wagering rights around our product. So in essence, you need the approval of the content producer if you wanna take wagering or conduct wagering activity on on our races or other pari mutuel, horse races. So I think that’s an impediment to that activity happening on that platform.

But the platform in and of itself, it’s subject of a lot of discussion in the country, and certainly we watch it, but it’s not a risk or particular concern for what we do with the Kentucky Derby and current mutual wagering on horse racing.

Conference Operator: Thank you. And our next question comes from the line of Ben Shakin with Mizuho.

Jordan Bender/Jeff Stanchell, Analyst, Citizens/Stifel: Hey, good morning. Thanks for taking my question. Just going back to New Hampshire, understanding the deal is not closed, maybe more holistically in the region, does this represent a pipeline of M and A we could see more of in the region or just more of a one off for one reason or another? Thanks.

Bill Carstanjen, Chief Executive Officer, Churchill Downs Incorporated: Thanks, Ben. Appreciate appreciate the question. We’re focused on what we think is the best opportunity for our company in the region, which is which is, Salem. So we’re we’re gonna go out and execute that and and establish for our company and for our investors that that’s a smart investment and a and a and a profitable one for for our our company. I do think it’s an area, a state where there’ll be lots of changes and lots of development over the next couple of years, and we’ll certainly keep our eye on that and certainly are working hard to build our expertise in that region of the country and in that state so that we understand and can evaluate effectively the market in general.

Conference Operator: Thank you. And our next question comes from the line of Joe Stauff with Susquehanna.

Joe Stauff, Analyst, Susquehanna: Thank you. Good morning, Bill, Marsha. I thought the Oaks schedule change was interesting. I know a lot of people coming in certainly for for the race get there pretty late on Friday. And I’m wondering strategically what you know, the goal of doing that, is it to drive attendance?

You know, can can you generate incremental, you know, say, ticket sales and attendance? Or is it more about what you talked about, the promotional value of the lead in into Saturday?

Bill Carstanjen, Chief Executive Officer, Churchill Downs Incorporated: Thanks for the question, Joe. It’s designed to move everything in a positive direction. But within that positive direction, points of emphasis, the opportunity to be on national television is a chance to build the national profile of of the Oaks, which is a pretty special race. But certainly, it’s the case that a lot of folks come to the Derby, and it’s all about the Derby. And and they don’t have a much as much of an understanding of the historical relevance and the specialness of the Kentucky Oaks.

So a chance to build that brand with a national, broadcasting platform is really, really important for driving wagering, for driving sponsorship opportunities, for driving sponsorship awareness. So among all our growth catalysts, we think they’ll move in the right direction. We expect them to move in the right direction. But as a particular point of emphasis, we wanna drive handle. We wanna drive national awareness.

We wanna drive, sponsorship opportunities, and we think it’s a great springboard to remind people that the Kentucky Derby is the next day. So come see the Oaks Friday night on NBC, and it feeds right into, the next day when we have the Kentucky Derby.

Conference Operator: Thank you. And our next question comes from the line of Brandt Montour with Barclays.

Brandt Montour, Analyst, Barclays: Good morning everybody. Thanks for taking my question. I was hoping you could talk a little bit more about the plan for the area between the first Turn and the Sky Terrace and I don’t know how much you’re going to be able to say but I guess the question would be is this sort of going to is this replacing the three year plan in a way and how is the scope sort of different than what you had been thinking for this area in the old plan? And then lastly, you know, do you think it you know, do do we think it’ll be ready for ’27, and and and would it and would it potentially disrupt ’26 in any way? I know that’s a lot.

Bill Carstanjen, Chief Executive Officer, Churchill Downs Incorporated: That was a multipart question, Brandt. So let me make sure I I

Brandt Montour, Analyst, Barclays: can’t remember you want. Pick what you want out of there.

Bill Carstanjen, Chief Executive Officer, Churchill Downs Incorporated: Okay. So so first, we have a lot of opportunity at our facility for capital improvement to to grow our event. And so this space is a clear and obvious one. This is one where there isn’t currently a major structure that we would have to take down. There are seats there, but there isn’t a major structure.

We are very, very focused as a team in refining our cost estimates, refining our timing, refining our plans. Because when we explain what we’re going to do to the market, we really want it to be locked down and certain and stress tested, so that we are sure we will deliver. So I expect that we will do that at the next earnings call. We are in the process of doing it now. But as an area of the track, it’s not an area where there’s a significant structure there.

Now this is what we call affectionately in the company, the gap and the smile. So, I don’t expect it. It will not be disrupted for the twenty twenty six Derby. We’ll explain 2027, 2028, 2029, etcetera, in good time. But, I promise, and it is my expectation that this will be an exciting project for everybody to digest and understand, and there’ll be a lot to be enthusiastic about when they see it.

Conference Operator: Thank you. And our next question comes from the line of Shaun Kelley with Bank of America.

Daniel Guglielmo, Analyst, Capital One Securities: Hi, good morning everyone. Thanks for taking my questions. Bill, you made some interesting points around as you expand or think about expanding Derby Week or the reach thereof around sponsorships. And I was just wondering if you could kind of go back and remind us a little bit of how does some of these sponsorship relationships work? How long in duration are they?

What’s your ability to kind of up level some of that as the reach of the event and maybe the global experience continues to grow? We continue to see a pretty significant demand for sort of these luxury unique experiences. I’m wondering if there’s room for your sponsorship opportunity to keep up with that.

Bill Carstanjen, Chief Executive Officer, Churchill Downs Incorporated: Yeah. Thanks, Sean. That that’s a that’s a fascinating topic for me, and I’ve I’ve been in the company for for twenty years now. I’m 11 as the the CEO, and I’ve really seen sponsorships evolve and change over that period of time. At this point in our in our, history with sponsorships, this is now more and more about intentionality.

It’s about curating, our sponsors to make sure that we select and work with partners that are great fits for us as well as us being great fits for them. So as we look internationally and as we look to develop, not just internationally, but with our current sponsors, with other categories of sponsors that we haven’t filled, It’s not about putting somebody in that seat. It’s not about it’s not about just finding somebody. This is about especially being being particularly careful and focused about, building relationships that are win wins for both parties. So there’s a level of sophistication and focus for our sponsorship approach, that’s really evolved and become more sophisticated over time, and that’s where we are today.

So this isn’t about just taking phone calls and and, whoever comes to the front door. This is about building win win partnerships. And, it’s really encouraging that we’re seeing increased international, interest from from folks. But those are relationships and and partnerships to to to build and explain over time.

Conference Operator: Thank you. And our next question comes from the line of Jeff Stanchell with Stifel.

Jordan Bender/Jeff Stanchell, Analyst, Citizens/Stifel: Hey, good morning, Marcia, Bill. Thanks for taking our question. I wanted to ask on the ROSE specifically, Bill, can you just expand a bit further on more specifically on strategies and process underway to drive trialing and repeat visitation to keep ramping top line? And then similarly on the margin side, do you think that that property already has the right labor and cost structure to sort of ramp into? Or is there still some work to be done optimizing fixed costs?

Thanks.

Bill Carstanjen, Chief Executive Officer, Churchill Downs Incorporated: Jeff, thanks for the question. I remain incredibly bullish and excited about The Rose in Northern Virginia. It’s a very large market and generating awareness and trial is a multiyear process. So, we’re well underway. It’s about building our brand in that market, driving awareness, driving sampling, and then getting, our database built out.

So it’s progressing really well. Really proud of the team. You’ll see our margins improve when we’re at a stage. You’ll see them improve constantly, but we’re not trying to maximize margins on a per quarter basis at this moment. This is about building trial, building awareness, and building database, and that’s the investment that you have to make.

This isn’t this is about making an investment in that market so that we can can build the relationships with the customers. As wonderful as it is to be in a market like that with the demographics we see, it’s also a complex market. There’s a lot going on. There’s a lot of entertainment options. So driving awareness, driving participation, we have the right plan.

We have the right team, and you’ll see consistent we believe you’ll see consistent improvement, and gain, for an extended period of time going forward.

Conference Operator: Thank you. I would now like to turn the call back over to CEO, Bill Carstanjen, for any closing remarks.

Bill Carstanjen, Chief Executive Officer, Churchill Downs Incorporated: I just wanna thank everyone for their time today and for their interest and investment in our company. We take your trust in us and your investment with us very, very seriously. We work for you. Our job is to drive shareholder value, to drive improvement, and we take that very, very seriously. This is an exciting time for us.

This is

Brandt Montour, Analyst, Barclays: an

Bill Carstanjen, Chief Executive Officer, Churchill Downs Incorporated: exciting path that we’re on. So, we’re happy to get after it and, looking forward to getting after it. And I look forward to talking to you, next quarter. Thanks very much, everyone.

Conference Operator: Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for participating. This does conclude today’s program, and you may now disconnect.

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