Earnings call transcript: Galp Energia Q1 2025 sees solid performance amid market volatility

Galp Energia’s first-quarter earnings call for 2025 highlighted a robust performance despite challenging market conditions. The company reported maintaining its EBITDA guidance above 350 million euros, with upstream cash breakeven at approximately $20 per barrel. According to InvestingPro data, the company’s trailing twelve-month EBITDA stands at €3.27 billion, demonstrating significant operational scale. The stock reacted to the earnings call with a decline of 2.43%, closing at 13.98 euros, reflecting investor concerns over market volatility and pressures on refining margins. Current analysis suggests the stock is trading below its Fair Value, presenting a potential opportunity for value investors.

Key Takeaways

• Galp Energia maintained its EBITDA guidance above 350 million euros.
• Upstream cash and dividend breakeven set at $20 per barrel.
• The stock price fell by 2.43% following the earnings call.
• Successful divestment activities raised 870 million pounds.
• The Brazil Bacalau project remains on track for oil production later in 2025.

Company Performance

Galp Energia described Q1 2025 as a "solid quarter," with significant contributions from its midstream business. The company successfully navigated a volatile market environment, maintaining a strong presence in the Iberian mid/downstream markets. The company’s disciplined capital allocation strategy and low production costs have fortified its competitive position.

Financial Highlights

• Revenue: Not disclosed in the transcript.
• Earnings per share: Not disclosed in the transcript.
• Upstream production reached 104,000 barrels.
• EBITDA guidance maintained above 350 million euros.

Outlook & Guidance

Galp Energia reaffirmed its financial guidance for 2025, expecting refining margins to improve to around $6 per barrel for 2025-2026. The company is also exploring potential CapEx optimization of 10-20% and continues its Namibia farm-down process. The Brazil Bacalau project is anticipated to add 40,000 barrels, generating approximately 400 million euros in operating cash flow annually. Analysts tracked by InvestingPro maintain a positive outlook, with price targets ranging from €15.92 to €28.43, suggesting potential upside. The company’s strong financial health is reflected in its current ratio of 1.72, indicating solid liquidity management.

Executive Commentary

Jean Diogo, Co-CEO, stated, "Q1 was a solid quarter for Galp, particularly when facing increased market volatility." Marie Joao, Co-CEO, emphasized the company’s resilience, noting, "We have a dividend breakeven of approximately $20 per barrel."

Risks and Challenges

• Market volatility and geopolitical uncertainty could impact future performance.
• Refining margins are currently under pressure, below $4 per barrel.
• Execution risks associated with the Brazil Bacalau project and other strategic initiatives.
• Potential challenges in the ongoing Namibia farm-down process.

Q&A

Analysts focused on the Namibia Mopane asset, with questions about the ongoing farm-down process. Positive early indications from the Mopane 3X well were highlighted, with Co-CEO Marie Joao noting, "Mopane has the potential to be worthy of a first track development."

Full transcript - Galp Energia Nom (GALP) Q1 2025:

Conference Operator: Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. Welcome to Galp’s First Quarter twenty twenty five Results Presentation. I will now pass the floor to Joao Gonvalvesh Pereira, Head of Investor Relations.

Joao Gonvalvesh Pereira, Head of Investor Relations, Galp: Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Galp’s first quarter twenty twenty five analyst Q and A session. In the room with me, I have both our Co CEOs, Marie Joao and Jean Diogo and the executive team. But before passing the mic for some quick opening remarks, our usual disclaimer. During today’s session, forward looking statements are based on our current estimates. Actual results could differ due to factors outlined in our cautionary statements within the materials we released this morning.

Jean Diocque, the mic is yours.

Jean Diogo, Co-CEO, Galp: Thank you as well. Good morning, everyone. Q1 was a solid quarter for gout, particularly when facing increased market volatility. Geopolitical scenarios are evolving rapidly and uncertainty remains high. In this scenario, Galp’s highly resilient asset base is reassuring.

As you know, our upstream operating base runs on cash breakevens of $20 per barrel, and the Iberian mid downstream businesses are running lean and should be reasonably resilient cash flow providers. It is of course fundamental to ensure disciplined execution and capital allocation, returns focused and adapted to the market circumstances. Early this year, we already guided for a tighter net CapEx spending, showcasing that discipline. It is important to always maintain a lean and efficient organization to potentiate agile but robust decision making. Lastly, we recently reconfirmed officially our executive structure.

Marie Joao and I appreciate the board’s confidence and we’ll continue to be fully focused on Galp’s plan execution and long term value creation. Madis Raou?

Marie Joao, Co-CEO, Galp: Thank you, Jean Diogo. Good morning, everyone. Let me just highlight on a couple of the topics you’ve mentioned. So Q1 has indeed been a solid start of 2025 for Galp, as we’ve had robust contributions across our Iberian businesses offset the slightly weaker upstream performance. This was caused by the concentration of planned maintenance.

We’ve had turnarounds in four units. This has added up to a number of stoppage days that is already over 40% of our full year plan. And with this, of course, production stood at 104,000 barrels. Still in Upstream, we continue to execute on our disciplined portfolio management, successfully completing divestments of our stake in Mozambique Area 4. Together with the final earn out from Angola, this translated into an £870,000,000 cash in and has placed Galp in what I’d call a privileged position to ensure solid financials in light of the current market circumstances.

In Namibia, well number five was safely drilled. This is another successful well unlocking now the Southeast region of the Molpane Complex, an exciting area for us. We are now focused on integrating all the data collected and working towards evolving the ongoing feasibility and development concept studies. The natural step in Namibia is, of course, to advance on the partnership. We are already engaging with several parties that have been signalling interest, all highly credible top tier operators.

At this time, GALP is initiating data sharing. We’re mindful of the fact that the alignment necessary for a value accretive partnership will likely take time, as we’ve always expected, and with no delays to our game plan. And to be clear, no procrastination but also no rush. All in all, our base expectation is a firm decision only later in the year, even though we’re not committing to a strict timeline. So looking forward to now take your questions.

Operator, shall we start Q and A?

Conference Operator: Thank you. As a reminder, to ask a question, you will need to press 11 on your telephone and wait for your name to be announced. Thank you. We will now take the first question. And your first question comes from the line of Josh Stone from UBS.

Please go ahead.

Josh Stone, Analyst, UBS: Yes, thanks. Hi, good morning, Marie Joao, Gerard Diego. Thanks for your time and congratulations on your appointments as Co CEO of Galp. Two questions, please. Firstly, I appreciate the extra comments on the Namibia farm down process and the time line on that.

Maybe just expand a little bit on the competitiveness of the process so far. How many bidders or potential bidders have you got in the data room? And have you actually received any revised bids yet and how you see that’s going? And maybe just expand a little bit on how you weigh up the process in terms of getting a partner in now versus the risk of leaving money on the table by transacting too early? And just maybe expand a little bit on that, that would be helpful.

Thank you. And then the second comment on guidance. You’ve refrained from updating your financial guidance today, which I think seems sensible given the uncertainty in the market. But maybe just talk a little bit about how, given the recent downturn, how you’re thinking about capital priorities inside the business and the level of flexibility in your financial frame, if you have, if it was needed to be tapped into. Thank you.

Marie Joao, Co-CEO, Galp: Thank you, Josh. So let me start with Namibia. On the process so far, I’ve just mentioned that partnership is our natural and preferred next step. So what we’re doing is to a very large extent re engaging with the interested parties that we’ve had conversations before. And that has been our priority.

Again, a set of potential partners that tick the boxes, if I may say so, in terms of their experience, their potential role as an operator, their manifested interests and their availability towards exploring the assets at the right pace. So data is now being shared. We expect to be sharing data until mid summer. Priority is ensuring the alignment of interests. So that’s what we are going for.

So making sure that we get a fair valuation and we have a good understanding of the assets to make sure that we align interests. We don’t really have a firm timeline here. We again, I think expression of no procrastination is clear to us at this stage, but it’s also clear to us that maintaining the right exchange in terms of information as we are ourselves still analysing is going to be critical for the deal to be a value accretive one. So no firm timeline. Base expectation is on Q4.

No procrastination. All in all, this is an asset that we like. We are maintaining our risk appetite and our exposure, but we expect that the deal will be completed as soon as possible, but very much looking forward to making sure that it is a value accretive one for both parties. Now on your second question on our unchanged guidance, if I take it correctly, we have a rather resilient base case. So in light of how hard it is currently to call on the macro and taking into consideration the fact that we look at our core businesses in upstream, for instance, we have a cash breakeven of approximately $20 per dollar.

So even though we registered the current uncertainties on the macro, what we’re seeing is the resilience of our base case, but together with the fact that, as we’ve also mentioned, we’ve had the first cargo from Venture Global coming in, so that gives us a little bit of an upside. But all in all, putting the two effects together, we feel that now is not the moment to revise our guidance. So we’ve already looked into our CapEx. You’ve seen the numbers of our revised guidance for this year. This is already 20% down from what was the case in previous period.

We’re maintaining our disciplined approach. We do see just a bit of room to further optimize CapEx should it be needed, but at this stage fundamentally we are holding off to see to what extent the current volatility actually is brought down and we see clear roads ahead. We think we have the right balance sheet and the right resilience to withstand what’s ahead of us without having to move the guidance right now. Thank you.

Josh Stone, Analyst, UBS: That’s very clear.

Analyst: Thanks for the comments.

Conference Operator: You. Your next question comes from the line of Alessandro Pozzi from Mediobanca. Please go ahead.

Joao Gonvalvesh Pereira, Head of Investor Relations, Galp: Good morning. Thank you for taking the questions. The first one is on the the farm out process. I was wondering whether there is any development work that’s being done in the background. And what I mean by that is, maybe, purchasing long lead items or prebooking construction vessels or space in yards for potential, FPSO work, whether there’s any of that potentially that is ongoing.

And also on the farm out, was wondering, you mentioned the seismic, the three d seismic will probably take a year to be fully integrated. I was wondering whether that could be an important milestone for the, farm out and whether any potential buyer would want to wait for that before, putting a firm bid on the table.

Marie Joao, Co-CEO, Galp: Thank you, Alessandro. So I think I think these are two questions that go hand in hand. Let me try and take them out. So on the on the what the type of work we’re doing right now, I think we’ve been very clear that we’ve conducted our drilling, our exploration in a very fast pace. So those were five wells in a little over a year.

And that’s, of course, now requires that we catch up and that we actually drive the data that we’re still getting out of that drilling activity into our models and into our understanding of the assets. So even though, you know, again, the partnership is the natural way forward, but that requires the ability for us to conduct a productive dialogue with the potential partners. So our focus right now is very much so on getting through all of this data, making sure that we bring it forth into what could be a proposed development concept. We’ve proved that the best way forward for GALP is to have a positive view, our own view on the assets and that’s what we want to be sharing. That requires that we look at this data.

So we’re both analysing it and sharing it with potential partners and that is very much the focus of our work so far. So we keep a little bit of an eye out on the market, so having had an operator stance in the previous stage has proved value accretive for GALT, so we are indeed keeping our teams attentive to the market. But our focus right now, again, to be very clear, is to make sure that we bring all that data into what is the natural way ahead for the assets and that is a negotiation with a potential partnership. The seismic is one of those data points, but again let me be clear, that is not going to be a roadblock, that is not in the way of our conversations. Information is valued.

It will be brought in. It will be incorporated into the models and into a potential development concept, but it does not stand as a roadblock as of now.

Joao Gonvalvesh Pereira, Head of Investor Relations, Galp: Thank you. And maybe just a final one, if I can, on working capital. Should we expect the, the bills to to reverse, next quarter or throughout the year?

Marie Joao, Co-CEO, Galp: Yeah. Absolutely. Very contextual to a very large extent related to the extreme bad weather we experienced in Portugal. So that didn’t allow us to follow our regular schedules in terms of cargoes unloading and had an impact in terms of inventories. You know, we expect over 60% of it, which is the part related to this bad weather circumstances, this will be naturally diluted as we process and the refinery and our shipping resumes natural conditions.

Totally circumstantial. Thank you.

Conference Operator: Thank you. Your next question comes from the line of Biraj Bhakataria from RBC. Please go ahead.

Biraj Bhakataria, Analyst, RBC: Hi, thanks for taking my questions. The first one is on the Midstream. You had another really strong performance in Q1. It looks like you quite heavily derisked the full year guidance already, and you mentioned in your prepared remarks around the Venture Global volumes not being reflected in guidance. So I just wanted a little bit of help in terms of the materiality of these volumes.

If you were to assume spot prices or forward curve, should the run rate for the Midstream be more like €600,000,000 EBITDA? Is that in the right ballpark? So any color on that would be helpful. And then secondly, just going back to Namibia. Firstly, thank you for all the incremental color.

That’s very helpful. Just wanted to get a sense of the magnitude of the spending this year. I think last year CapEx to Namibia was just over EUR300 million. I suppose if you’re pausing the campaign from here, what’s embedded in the budget for this year? Some color around that would be helpful too.

Thank you.

Jean Diogo, Co-CEO, Galp: Thank you, Bijaj. On your first question, so we are clearly expecting a continued robust contribution with supportive performance from our activities all across all the commodities. Surely, it is a key milestone bringing venture global. We are confident that the current sourcing and supply portfolio will continue to enable a robust contribution to Gulf results. Know that well, and Gulf’s first cargo was leased on the April 15.

However, no volumes from Venture Global were assumed in the 2025 guidance. So, we are at this point keeping our 2025 EBITDA guidance above $350,000,000 and that’s all for now.

Marie Joao, Co-CEO, Galp: I’ll take down let me take down the question on Namibia. Biraj, I believe you’re looking for how much we have in our plan for 2025 concerning further CapEx in Namibia. We have around 100 to 155 that concern both the well and the seismic, so no further major CapEx spend expected there. So all in all, the number you are looking for is in the hundreds, a bit over 101 hundred, €150,000,000 in our projections for ’25.

Biraj Bhakataria, Analyst, RBC: Great, thank you both.

Conference Operator: Thank you. Your next question comes from the line of Giacomo Romeo from Jefferies. Please go ahead.

Giacomo Romeo, Analyst, Jefferies: Yes, thank you. Two questions for me. The first one is on again on the farm out process, apologies for that. The no procrastination appears also to be the position of the Namibian government. So I was wondering what’s the alternative route if you don’t get the offers to the level valuation you actually think Mopane deserves.

Would you consider progressing into taking FID on the first unit on your own? Second question is, there has been a lot of discussion around the contingent resources you disclosed for Namibia in your annual report. Obviously, I understand this number doesn’t include the majority of the latest the data collected on the latest drilling campaign. And where would you see this number going if all the wells all the incremental wells were included in this? And on this, are you still confident in your above EUR 10,000,000,000 BOE in place resource estimate?

Thank you.

Marie Joao, Co-CEO, Galp: Thank you, Giacomo. It’s clearly a lot of road ahead for us with this asset for us to be considering alternatives. We do look at the decision tree with all the alternative plays, but I think what we see right now in terms of the interest that we’ve had on the assets, the predisposition of Namibian authorities, what we have in terms of incoming information on the asset and what we already know and how we’re incorporating it into a potential development plan. If you add to what we had already found with the first Northwest complex that we’ve had in Lopin, if you now have the results of our latest well, the 3X, there’s quite a lot of exciting information there as well. So really early days for us to be walking away from the focus that we have right now.

I think this is an asset that will benefit from having the right pace of development and that’s very much what we’re focused on right now. What we’re seeing in terms of interest and predisposition is positive in that direction, so that’s what we’re exploring and that’s what we’re keeping all the focus of our teams on. So that’s way too early for us to be actively discussing alternatives moving ahead. On your question on the contingent and the numbers that we’ve reported, the 10,000,000,000 barrels still stands. They refer to the total of Milpane, and you have to take into consideration that the DMACC information that was public referred to November.

So actually it was kind of halfway through the campaign that we had ongoing at the time. So they’re consistent as we see it. There are of course, know, mean risks in our estimates, and they have the methodology of VMAC, which is different from our models and our internal analytics, but we see them as consistent. We’ve shared with a focus on three Cs precisely because all the work that we have, that we’re doing in terms of development will bring further substance to any 2C figures that we don’t see yet as the most relevant ones to explain the full complex. I think it’s positive to give a few additional notes.

So, if you look at DMACC, those were stated for our share. If you look at the 100% basis, it’s actually 900,000,000 barrels. So I think it’s actually positive that this is an extrapolation for analog discovery. So fundamentally what this tells us is that, you know, there’s reassurance in knowing that there is this type of contingency in our findings with the little information that was known back in November. So, all in all, our 10,000,000,000 barrels still stands, but a lot to learn about the complex.

Biraj Bhakataria, Analyst, RBC: Thank you. Very clear.

Conference Operator: Thank you. Your next question comes from the line of Matt Smith from Bank of America. Please go ahead.

Matt Smith, Analyst, Bank of America: Hi there, good morning. Thanks for taking my questions. I had one on Namibia and one on Brazil. So the first on Namibia, was hoping you could maybe provide some additional color on the Mopane 3x result. You noted higher than expected pressures in your press release.

There’s been a lot of sort of discussion in industry press that it was ahead of expectations or perhaps better than previous wells drilled. Just wondered if you were able to talk to any of that and pull out any other notable characteristics beyond just the pressures, please. And then the second one turning to Brazil and your turnaround progress, noting that you’re 40% through that turnaround progress, for the year already. So just wanted to ask, how is the work program and the unit restarts also gone so far versus expectations? And how has that developed your confidence in the full year guidance, please?

Marie Joao, Co-CEO, Galp: Okay. Thank you. Thank you, Matt. On extra color on 3x. So we’ve indicated that I think I call it exciting.

It’s good characteristics what we’ve found and what we’re still discovering so far. And again, I keep going back to the fact that this well was ended halfway through the quarter, so there’s still a lot of information coming. Having said this, all the information we’re getting is still confirming what we saw and shared initially. So high permeabilities, good porosities, we had higher than expected pressures, which we see as a good sign, very low CO2, no H2S concentration. So all in all, results.

We’re still integrating and analyzing all the income data. I think it’s fair to say that if you look at the Southeast Region where Mopane 3X took place vis a vis the Northwest, what we see in the Southeast is in line with our expectations, and it’s certainly oilier than the Northwest Region. So, oilier with good permeability, higher than expected but manageable pressures. So good indications, hence my, you know, exciting objective for the fine if you’re talking about color. On Brazil, indeed, 40%.

We don’t guide on yearly seasonality of maintenance. So overall, this was to a large extent expected. Maintenance has been going well with no significant events to Highline. So, we’re maintaining our guidance of 105 barrels. So, this, of course, in terms of you know, guidance includes a little bit of caution.

There’s always, to some extent, unplanned events. So far, we’ve had very few of those, so very low unplanned events so far. So all in all, all according to plan, the concentration was to some extent expected, but we’re not revising our guidance in terms of production overall.

Matt Smith, Analyst, Bank of America: Perfect. Thank you very much.

Conference Operator: Thank you. Next question comes from the line of Paul Redman from BNP Paribas. Please go ahead.

Analyst: Hi, guys. Thank you very much for your time. I have one quick question on the management structure now. Congratulations to both of you for the co CEO roles. But I just want to work out how you’re managing, the business at the moment.

I feel like I’m getting a bit of a Namibia side from Maria Zhao. Let me know if that’s right. And then my second question is there’s been some talk about a potential third hub. So we’ve got the Northwest, the Southeast. Is there any more color you could give me on how many additional hubs there could be at this asset and if you agree there is potential for a third hub right now?

Marie Joao, Co-CEO, Galp: Thank you, Paul. So no, this is a co CEO role. It’s precisely about sharing and about being able to establish dialogue. So no allocation of Namibia, if you’d like. We have Nunu, who’s just recently joined our ex com.

He’s head of upstream, and he is, of course, leading the day to day operations and the teams that are dealing not just with Namibia, but with the remainder of of upstream. Other than that, we’re very, you know, we’re very focused on making sure that we, we get the good things out of this model and we do live through those good things as being very much about stability and execution. So this allows us focus without having to transition, without having to move away from what is a strategic guidance that we find valid, and making sure that that strategic direction is deployed in a way that helps us navigate through the current volatility in the market instead of being a further hindrance. So it’s governance wise, I understand, not a very conventional solution, but we’re very committed to making it work and we’ve had very good support from the board and in particular from our colleagues in the ExComm. So it just speaks to how we complement each other in terms of capabilities, and we’re navigating through it, of course, but so far I think we’re enjoying it and we’re adding value to GALP in doing so.

On third herb in mopane, I believe, well, way too soon to talk about that. There is great potential in mopane, a large number of AVOs, but right now, again, we’re very focused on making sure that we get the right development concept for what we already know about the Northwest Region and for the Southeast Region. We are not at this stage moving forward towards the third hub so far. We believe that making sure that we catch up with all the information we got from the first initial exploration and appraisal campaign is critical and that’s what stands in our decision tree at this moment as being the more value accretive approach for the asset. Thank

Joao Gonvalvesh Pereira, Head of Investor Relations, Galp: you.

Conference Operator: Your next question comes from the line of Alejandro Vigil from Santander. Please go ahead.

Alejandro Vigil, Analyst, Santander: Hello and good morning. Thank you for taking my questions. The first question is about Brazil.

Biraj Bhakataria, Analyst, RBC: If you

Alejandro Vigil, Analyst, Santander: can give us an update on the Vaca Muertau project and also on the potential extension of the plateau for 2P. And the second question is about these comments you made about the potential optimization of CapEx in the context of lower oil prices. If you can elaborate on that, some areas where you are expected to delay CapEx or to, as you said, optimize?

Biraj Bhakataria, Analyst, RBC: You.

Marie Joao, Co-CEO, Galp: Starting with Brazil on Bacalao. So again, we’re continuing to align with the operator in guiding for first oil later in 2025. So as I’m sure you’re all aware, we’ve been discussing it before, the FPSO is already in Brazil. Still works ongoing. So all the mooring, I think mooring is to a large extent mostly completed, but now there’s carryover.

And once that is done, there’s still significant hookup activity. So everything there is moving. We are relatively modest in terms of how that will translate into our P and L in 2025, so we do see this as being later in the year. We then see the ramp up as being also critical to make sure that we drive value out of this new asset. Ramp up will happen throughout 2026 according to our current expectations.

So you’ll only reach plateau according to our current expectations in 2027. That will be another 40,000 barrels, which is significant in our portfolio. So our current estimate is at plateau, so again, ramping up all the way through to 2027. But once we reach it, we expect that to be an addition of approximately $400,000,000 I believe, in terms of OCF, that’s on a per annum basis. In terms of 2P, some great assets, it’s had a remarkable performance.

And it’s one of the assets where the good decline rates that we see in Brazil, we’re talking about approximately 5% decline rates in an ultra deepwater setting where the expected reference is approximately 8%. So this is a great performing asset and of course we want to make sure that all that potential continues to be extracted. We were asking for an extension and, you know, the whole Petrobras Brazil team is very keen on making sure, very engaged and working through that request for an extension. So again, great assets, forward to make sure we get all the value out of it. We see it as one of the hallmarks of our Brazil portfolio.

Now, in terms of optimization of CapEx, in terms of flexibility, as mentioned before, I think the line under the current macro circumstances is very much the same line we’ve been sharing with you before. It’s a line of disciplined investment decisions. And that to an extent was already present in the way we planned for 2025. So we know 2025 is a year where we have still significant CapEx lined up. So we have our investments in seams with the H2 and the HVO facilities being at full steam ahead in terms of construction work.

Bacalau is still using up some of our CapEx. So it’s very much value accretive investment what we’re talking about in terms of 2025. Now, having said that, we are conducting the same disciplined exercise and that tells us that if look at our current CapEx estimates, there’s a bit of room, let’s say 10% to 20% in terms of possible optimization. We will take each of those decisions and we will consider each of those opportunities very much in light of how well we’re performing. Let me remind you, we’re not revising guidance at this stage.

So we believe we have sufficient comfort in our current plan to make sure that even though macro is indeed proving challenging, we have the necessary conditions to maintain our strong financial position. We have a dividend breakeven of approximately $20 per barrel. So that does give us sufficient flexibility. So it’s again the trade off between being very conscious of the need to optimise CapEx to be ahead of the curve in terms of knowing where that room for optimisation is, but tend to take those decisions to the extent that they don’t hinder our ability to continue the growth in our portfolio forward. So every investment that’s value accretive, we will continue to consider it and it’s still within our estimates for the year.

Thank you.

Alejandro Vigil, Analyst, Santander: Thanks, Vinay. Over to you, Alain.

Conference Operator: Thank you. Your next question comes from the line of Michele Della Vigna from Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.

Joao Gonvalvesh Pereira, Head of Investor Relations, Galp0: Thank you very much. Sorry to keep asking about Namibia, but I wanted to ask you for a slightly different thing. We’ve seen wells being drilled around your acreage, a dry well from Chevron, what looks like a successful well from Azul. I was wondering if there is any learning on your acreage that comes from these wells, perhaps does it open up new prospects in the block beyond Moppane? And then I wanted to ask you about your biofuel project and whether you still expect the SAF plant effectively to start up in 2026 despite what has probably been a bit of a slower start in that market from a margin and pricing perspective year to date?

Thank you.

Marie Joao, Co-CEO, Galp: Thank you, Michele. On what we see happening in the basin and on our potential partners and peers, we don’t really have access to privileged information. So let me start there. So what we do see, and we normally don’t really comment on peers’ assets, but generally what we see as a whole, it’s a relatively large basin, a lot of work being done there, a lot of information still being input, but all in all, we’re generally happy for other players’ success of course, because we believe that that reinforces Namibia’s potential as a future oil hub, which we do see the basin as having such characteristics. In our case, if anything, if I can just mention and point out one example, if you look at the results that Rhino recently obtained, those are consistent with a notion that the basin is oilier closer to shore.

So that’s kind of the level of inference that we can take from what we’re seeing happening around us without being overly prescriptive and without this taking away any of the focus that we need to have and making sure that we are continuing the full analysis of the data, the actual drilling data that we’re getting from what we collected in the campaign that we conducted. So very focused on our excited about what we saw in the assets, also being very analytical about how to look at it at this stage. So no other read across than reinforcing our view that Namibia has all the potential to be a future oil hub. Joao, maybe on the question on biofuels?

Jean Diogo, Co-CEO, Galp: Yeah, so it’s confirmed our best estimation is that the startup will go later 2026. You may know that three reactors arrived year end 2024. And in fact, all detailed engineering is by now concluded. So long lead items allocated, a very flexible unit between HVO and SAF. And well, we are keeping our guidance and hopefully 2026 will go live.

Josh Stone, Analyst, UBS: Thank you. Thank you.

Conference Operator: Thank you. Your next question comes from the line of Alastair Syme from Citi. Please go ahead.

Josh Stone, Analyst, UBS: Hi. One more question on Namibia, I’m afraid. We went through this farm out process last year. And I just wonder if you can reflect on why that didn’t work and what you’re doing differently with the farm out this year. Is it essentially that you’ve just drilled this southeast corner of the field or there more to it than that?

Thank you.

Marie Joao, Co-CEO, Galp: Thank you, Alex. I think the fact that we’re reengaging with, to a large extent, some of the players that were in conversations before speaks to how we see what happened in 2024. I think we came to a mutual understanding that there was still information to be obtained about Mopane and about our block as a whole, and that it would be productive for all parties interested, that information would be obtained. I think there was to a large extent agreement that what we were proposing to do, because we saw it ourselves as the plan moving ahead with the asset in terms of E and A, but it was well received by proposed partners and it was mutually acknowledged that we could run through those activities that would give all parties a clearer view, and that’s where we’re standing right now. So that’s hence finding it natural to not re engaging.

We’ve come to what we have agreed to do in terms of further understanding the asset. We’re now sharing that information. When we look at our decision tree concerning the asset, this is the right moment for us to re engage and to have information actually feeding a productive discussion. So I guess that’s what I would comment. It’s not necessarily a classification or a note on what happened differently or what happens differently now versus 2024.

The information and the maturity of our knowledge of the asset has changed. So we expect that to drive us forward. Thank you.

Josh Stone, Analyst, UBS: Thank you.

Conference Operator: Thank you. Your next question comes from the line of Sasikanth Chilukuru from Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.

Joao Gonvalvesh Pereira, Head of Investor Relations, Galp1: Hi, Thanks for taking my questions. I had two, Fred, both on Namibia again. First one was starting some recent comments we’ve seen from the new President of Namibia and also the Petroleum Commissioner stressing the importance of local content for any potential developments there and also calling for synergies and collaboration between the partners of all the discoveries in Namibia so far, including some gas only discoveries. I was just wondering how this was affecting your planning for the development in the Northwest Region of Mobain. Any thoughts on this would be helpful.

The second one was on the reserves. I was wondering if you could give some color on the recovery factors and the gas oil ratio used for the 900,000,000 3C resources that you’ve added so far. It appears to me that there is significant proportion of gas in these resources added, which is which is done by the auditor. Just wanted to check whether it was true. Thanks.

Marie Joao, Co-CEO, Galp: Thank you, Sassy. So on, the recent address to the nation, from the madam president in in Namibia, we we’ve had very productive, very constructive conversations with Namibian government so far. We understand the relevance of the asset and we understand a stance that is focused on making sure that the conditions for the asset to be developed are in place and that the conditions for the Namibian people to actually share in the value of that asset to be there. So we look at local content and synergies as something that is normal. We see it across many other basins.

This has to an extent been computed into all the partners and all the entities that are working there. If anything, we’ve had an extremely productive relationship in Brazil, and I think Brazil is where we’re closer at home and experiencing the quality of local content and how that can actually be decisive in bringing an asset of the relevance that we believe Namibia can aspire to be, bringing that forward. So it’s a long way ahead. It’s important that these things and that these intents are clear from the start. We see them as natural to an extent.

We welcome an open dialogue about them, and we see them as a way to move forward in terms of making sure that the common, the shared interest, which is keeping pace in delivering the value of these assets is actually met. So no big additions to make on that topic. On the recovery factors and the gas to oil ratio on the 3Cs, So again, very different methodologies, DMACC and our models, and again very different scope, and I think that is critical to always keep in mind. This is the information that DMACC has, which refers back to November, so again that is very partial. Mopane is a rather large system.

What we’re finding is that AVOs have different characteristics, so we don’t have a discomfort or find an inconsistency in the numbers that DMAC presented, but they do not stand for the whole of the complex, the whole of mopane. And again, they’re compatible with our models, but they’re very, very partial and they’re early days in terms of estimates. So I would leave it at that. Thank you.

Josh Stone, Analyst, UBS: Thank you.

Conference Operator: Your next question comes from the line of Matt Lofting from JPMorgan. Please go ahead.

Joao Gonvalvesh Pereira, Head of Investor Relations, Galp2: Thanks for taking the questions. I wondered if you could remind us of the main criteria Galp’s thinking about or focusing on when it looks to establish, as you’ve said, a value accretive partnership in Namibia and your sense of whether current market volatility is having any impact on the reengagement process for what’s clearly a longer term rather than nearer term asset? Secondly, you talked about the midstream business earlier. I wondered if you could just come back on refining as well. 1Q margins, I think, modestly below the full year plan that you framed in February.

How are cracks trending now, year to date, or in April. I’m just wondering the extent to which you’re seeing any positive integration effect or offset against recent downward pressure on oil prices. Thank you.

Marie Joao, Co-CEO, Galp: Thank you, Matt. So on what is a value accretive partnership, I think we’ve already been explicit about the fact that we value the notion of establishing a partnership with an experienced operator. What we see in the asset size and in the assets characteristics leads us to believe that this is a good set of skills to have to make sure that we drive the asset forward in best possible way. So then once you’ve established that, I think the second criteria for us has clearly got to do with the pace at which we develop the asset. We’d like a partnership to be established with someone that within their portfolios does not bring mopane to a second layer or to a non priority level.

This is relevant for us. Mopane has the potential to be worthy of a first track development, and we would like to find a partner that looks at Mopane in that same way. We believe that if these two are aligned, then it is of course very, very much an issue of making sure that we conduct a fair evaluation, we share information, and we align our interests. Hence, some of my comments about the fact that we do not want to close a timeline. These things take time.

It’s as relevant to us to close a deal as it is to make sure that the deal is closed in a way that is conducive to the value of the asset to explored. If I believe you mentioned the potential impact of the current context, there’s an element of course of long term investment here. So this has to be an interest that manifests through the cycle and that’s what we’re seeing in terms of the potential partners that have come forth. Now having said that, nobody dropped off the conversation, so there was no disengaging, there was no reaction to macro context and to geopolitics context in this sense. So, so far what we see is this shared vision that this is an asset worth through the cycle approach, so no major impacts so far.

On refining margins, Raul, can you take this one?

Jean Diogo, Co-CEO, Galp: Yeah, let me take that part and Matt. Yeah, indeed, April to date, we’ve seen refining margins pressured just below $4 per barrel, reflecting weaker support on the middle distillate cracks. On the first Q, if we look at our refining margin, it was slightly higher Q on Q despite all the volatility that we are facing on the correct environment, but also the suboptimal, let’s call it like that operation given the bad weather conditions that we’ve suffered on the first couple of months this year. Looking going forward, well, we are expecting refining margin on circa $6 per barrel 2025, ’20 ’20 ’6. That’s our guidance.

We are not changing our guidance at this point. As we know, we are facing a very uncertain outlook with volatility impacting demand dynamics, but we will remain focused on optimizing our processes, on optimizing cost saving initiatives. That’s where we will put all our efforts at this point. Thank

Joao Gonvalvesh Pereira, Head of Investor Relations, Galp1: you.

Conference Operator: Thank you. Your next question comes from the line of Irene Himona from Bernstein. Please go ahead.

Joao Gonvalvesh Pereira, Head of Investor Relations, Galp3: Thank you very much and congratulations to both on your appointment. My first question back to Namibia, if I may. As you stated that the farm down may or may not happen this year, there is no rush. And you’re analyzing all the data and working on the development concept. If we don’t get the farm down this year, what can the market expect in terms of Galp articulating any further information on Namibia over the rest of this year?

So is there a next step for the market aside of the farm down? And my second question, point of detail on the upstream P and L, aside of your disclosed lifting costs, royalties, DD and A, there is this category of other costs not related to production. And that number that amount with the Namibian campaign has obviously gone up materially versus history. Is there any guidance you can provide, any sense you can give us of that amount for the of other costs for the full year ’25, please? Thank you.

Marie Joao, Co-CEO, Galp: Thank you, Irene. So, again, our base case for the farm down is to position it as expecting to take place within this year. Other than that, again, no procrastination. So we see if the conditions are there for a productive dialogue to be established for the terms to come to an agreement between ourselves and a potential partner before that, we see no reason to delay this process or to have it take longer than necessary. It’s a balance between not rushing and again missing out on the conditions for the adequate development of the asset in the future.

So we’re simply acknowledging that for an asset this size, the complexity will require time. This is not a week’s deal. This is probably going to take longer than that, and we want to make sure that the market is aware that we will take that time if it is necessary, but only if proves to be value accretive. Again, if it proves that the conversations are moving and that this is a way for us to come to the right terms. So again, our focus is on that.

I will not comment on whether if the deal doesn’t come through, we don’t see any reason for that to be the case at this stage. So we’ll work from that hypothesis and make sure that we firm up the closure instead. Thank you for a non Namibia question. So the detail or the clarification on the upstream P and L, I believe you were referring to the other costs. So, we don’t normally guide on that.

That has a set of elements. These other costs normally include a multitude of things such as SG and A costs, insurance expenses, SEM accounting, so successful efforts method accounting. It did include a lot of geophysical and geological expenditures, so it did hike up given our activities in Namibia in late ’twenty four and early ’twenty five. But don’t take it as guidance, but our expectation is that given all the other elements it contains, it should be something in the magnitude of 100 to 150 tops, but let’s place it within that order of magnitude for 2025 as a whole. Thank you.

Joao Gonvalvesh Pereira, Head of Investor Relations, Galp3: Thank you. Thank you.

Conference Operator: We will now take our final question for today. One moment please. And your final question comes from the line of Matt Cooper from Barclays. Please go ahead.

Joao Gonvalvesh Pereira, Head of Investor Relations, Galp4: Thanks very much. So in February, Total announced that the Venus permeability was in the range of two to four millidarcys. I just wondered that given the amount of data that you now have, are you able to give some high level color on the range of permeability you’re seeing at Mopane? Given you say good to high permeability, would it be unfair to say that equates to around 500 millidarcens in that region? And then secondly, could you run through the advantages for the development of the higher permeability that you’re seeing at Mopane?

Thank you.

Marie Joao, Co-CEO, Galp: Can you hear me? Yes. Thank you. Thank you, Matt. So, on what we’re seeing in terms of permeability, we’re not really being specific about the numbers.

Are seeing indeed permeability ranges, which are significantly higher from what we’ve seen other of our peers announce and discuss. We see that, of course, as an upside the development, but we’re not adding any further information on that topic right now. Thank you.

Joao Gonvalvesh Pereira, Head of Investor Relations, Galp4: Okay, thank you. And on the second question?

Marie Joao, Co-CEO, Galp: So on the advantages of the mopane development, so what we’re seeing that is we’re seeing water depths that in terms of the 1,500 to 12,000 metres, and we are looking at those as being clearly less expensive than what we see in greater depth. So that’s one of the topics that I guess I would highlight. Again, this is early days. We’re still very much working around the development concept. So all these things come together.

So the water depth, but also the fact that we’re seeing no evidence of water, the permeabilities, as I’ve mentioned before, all of that needs to come together into an actual development concept. Each of these pieces of information on itself can be very misleading and have very little meaning. Hence, again, we’ve stopped drills halfway through the quarter. So these are very early days. You’ve seen a lot of our peers take at least a year to bring all this information, maybe even two years to bring all this information into something that actually speaks to commerciality, that actually speaks to a development concept that brings all of this together.

So we see good signs. We really want to bring them all together before we actually take meaning out of each of those individual signs. Thank you.

Joao Gonvalvesh Pereira, Head of Investor Relations, Galp4: Thank you and appreciate all the information on the call.

Conference Operator: Thank you. This concludes today’s conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

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