Earnings call transcript: Invesco Mortgage Q3 2025 EPS meets forecast, revenue falls short

Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc. (IVR) reported its third-quarter earnings for 2025, meeting the earnings per share (EPS) forecast of $0.58 but falling short of revenue expectations. The company reported actual revenue of $17.61 million against a forecast of $36.21 million, resulting in a revenue miss of 51.37%. Following the earnings release, the stock showed a modest increase in premarket trading, rising by 1.26% to $7.26.

Key Takeaways

• Invesco Mortgage met its EPS forecast of $0.58 for Q3 2025.
• Revenue fell short by 51.37%, with actual figures at $17.61 million.
• The stock price increased by 1.26% in premarket trading.
• The company projects a constructive outlook on agency mortgages.
• Debt-to-equity ratio increased slightly to 6.7x.

Company Performance

Invesco Mortgage Capital’s performance in Q3 2025 was marked by stability in earnings but a significant shortfall in revenue. The company managed to maintain its EPS forecast, which aligns with its strategic focus on agency mortgages and capital deployment. Despite the revenue miss, Invesco Mortgage’s book value per common share increased by 4.5% to $8.41, indicating solid asset management and financial health.

Financial Highlights

• Revenue: $17.61 million, down from the forecast of $36.21 million.
• Earnings per share: $0.58, matching the forecast.
• Book value per common share increased by 4.5% to $8.41.
• Positive economic return of 8.7% for the quarter.
• Debt-to-equity ratio increased to 6.7x from 6.5x.

Earnings vs. Forecast

Invesco Mortgage Capital met its EPS forecast of $0.58, with no surprise in earnings. However, the significant revenue miss of 51.37% highlights challenges in meeting market expectations. This discrepancy between revenue and EPS indicates potential areas of operational or market inefficiencies that the company may need to address.

Market Reaction

Following the earnings announcement, Invesco Mortgage’s stock price rose by 1.26% in premarket trading, reaching $7.26. This movement suggests a cautiously optimistic investor sentiment despite the revenue shortfall. The stock is currently trading between its 52-week high of $9.06 and low of $5.855.

Outlook & Guidance

Invesco Mortgage Capital maintains a positive outlook on agency mortgages, anticipating broader investor demand due to lower interest rate volatility. The company expects three more rate cuts by the Federal Reserve before the end of next year, which could positively impact its financial performance. Future EPS forecasts suggest stability, with projections of $0.55 for Q4 2025 and $0.58 by Q3 2026.

Executive Commentary

CEO John Anzalone expressed confidence in the company’s strategic direction, stating, "We remain constructive on agency mortgages, and we view near-term risks as balanced." CIO Brian Norris highlighted the company’s financial returns, noting, "Levered gross returns were in the upper teens." Norris also emphasized the anticipated benefits of monetary policy changes, saying, "We believe further easing of monetary policy will lead to a steeper yield curve and lower interest rate volatility."

Risks and Challenges

• Revenue shortfall indicates potential operational or market challenges.
• Increased debt-to-equity ratio could raise financial risk.
• Economic factors such as inflation and unemployment may impact future performance.
• Regulatory changes could affect market dynamics.
• Interest rate volatility remains a concern despite current declines.

Q&A

During the earnings call, analysts focused on the company’s hedge portfolio strategy and capital structure optimization. Questions also addressed the relative value between agency RMBS and CMBS, with management confirming that current investment returns support dividend levels.

Full transcript - Invesco Mortgage (IVR) Q3 2025:

Operator: Welcome to the Invesco Mortgage Capital third quarter 2025 earnings call. All participants will be in listen-only mode until the question-and-answer session. At that time, if you would like to ask a question, please press star followed by one on your telephone. As a reminder, this call is being recorded. Now, I would like to turn the call over to Greg Seals in Investor Relations. Mr. Seals, you may begin the call.

Greg Seals, Investor Relations, Invesco Mortgage Capital: Thanks, Operator. To all of you joining us on Invesco Mortgage Capital’s quarterly earnings call, in addition to today’s press release, we have provided a presentation that covers the topics we plan to address today. The press release and presentation are available on our website, invescormortgagecapital.com. This information can be found by going to the Investor Relations section on the website. Our presentation today will include forward-looking statements and certain non-GAAP financial measures. Please review the disclosures on slide two of the presentation regarding the statements and measures, as well as the appendix for the appropriate reconciliations to GAAP. Finally, Invesco Mortgage Capital is not responsible for, and does not edit, nor guarantee the accuracy of our earnings teleconference transcripts provided by third parties. The only authorized webcasts are located on our website. Again, welcome and thank you for joining us today.

I’ll now turn the call over to Invesco Mortgage Capital CEO, John Anzalone.

John Anzalone, CEO, Invesco Mortgage Capital: Good morning and welcome to Invesco Mortgage Capital’s third quarter earnings call. I’ll provide some brief comments before turning the call over to our Chief Investment Officer, Brian Norris, to discuss our portfolio in more detail. Also joining us on the call this morning for Q&A is our President, Kevin Collins, our COO, Dave Weil, and our CFO, Mark Gregson. The strong momentum that began in mid-April continued throughout the third quarter as expectations for easing monetary policy, strong corporate earnings, and improved economic growth fueled rallies across the financial markets. Financial conditions remained accommodative as volatility measures declined sharply and equity markets performed well, with the S&P 500 index and the NASDAQ both posting strong gains.

Inflation measures continued to run hotter than the Federal Reserve’s 2% target over the quarter, with the headline consumer price index rising to 3% in September, up from 2.7% in June, while the core CPI increased from 2.9% to 3%. Investor expectations for future inflation, seen through TIPS break-even rates, increased modestly, reflecting concerns about the potential impact of fiscal and trade policies on consumer prices. Meanwhile, prior to the pause in data caused by the government shutdown on October 1, labor market data pointed to continued sluggish growth. The economy added an average of 51,000 jobs in July and August, down slightly from 55,000 per month in the second quarter, while the headline unemployment rate increased to 4.3% in August. Despite persistent inflation above the Fed’s target, the FOMC lowered its benchmark federal funds target rate by 25 basis points in mid-September, citing signs of a weaker labor market.

On Wednesday, the FOMC cut its target rate an additional 25 basis points to a range of 3.75% to 4% and announced the end of quantitative tightening. Futures pricing now indicates that investors expect three more cuts before the end of next year. Interest rates declined across the Treasury yield curve during the quarter, with shorter maturities leading the way. This also reflected market expectations for a more accommodative policy stance from the Federal Reserve and continued weakness in the labor market. Interest rate volatility declined notably throughout the quarter on growing consensus for easing monetary policy. As a result, agency mortgages performed well during the third quarter, benefiting from the persistent decline in interest rate volatility as well as the overall supportive environment for risk assets.

While demand from commercial banks and overseas investors remained relatively subdued, the steepening of the yield curve in the front end improved investor sentiment for agency mortgages. GAAP performance was broadly distributed across the 30-year conventional mortgage coupon stack, with discount coupons recording the largest gains. Performance in higher coupons was dampened by elevated prepayment risk as 30-year mortgage rates declined approximately 50 basis points during the quarter. Positively, premiums on specified pool collateral improved in higher coupons as investors sought prepayment protection. Agency CMBS risk premiums declined quarter over quarter as investor demand increased with broader financial markets. These factors led to a 4.5% increase in book value per common share to $8.41 at quarter end. When combined with our $0.34 dividend, it resulted in a positive economic return of 8.7% for the quarter.

Leverage ticked up slightly as our debt-to-equity ratio increased to 6.7% at the end of the quarter, up from 6.5 times as we continued to reduce the percentage of our capital structure comprised of preferred stock and position the company to further benefit from positive agency RMBS performance. During the quarter, we raised $36 million by issuing common stock through our ATM program, maintaining a disciplined approach to ensure that this activity benefits existing shareholders. At quarter end, our $5.7 billion investment portfolio consisted of $4.8 billion agency mortgages and $0.9 billion agency CMBS, and we retained a sizable balance of unrestricted cash and unencumbered investments totaling $423 million. As of last night’s close, we estimate book value was up approximately 1.5% since quarter end.

Given the notable decline in interest rate volatility, we remain constructive on agency mortgages, and we view near-term risks as balanced following its recent strong performance. Our longer-term outlook for the sector remains favorable as we expect investor demand to broaden given lower interest rate volatility, a steeper yield curve, attractive valuations, and the end of quantitative tightening. In addition, agency CMBS continues to offer attractive risk-adjusted yields and diversification benefits relative to our agency mortgage holdings, supported by its stable cash flow profile and lower sensitivity to interest rate fluctuations. Lastly, we believe anticipated changes to bank regulatory capital rules would increase investor demand for agency mortgages and agency CMBS, providing further tailwinds for both sectors. Now, I’ll turn the call over to Brian to provide some more details.

Brian Norris, Chief Investment Officer, Invesco Mortgage Capital: Thanks, John, and good morning to everyone listening to the call. I’ll begin on slide four, which provides an overview of the interest rate markets over the past year. As depicted in the chart on the upper left, despite further easing of monetary policy in September, Treasury yields declined only modestly during the quarter as the deterioration in employment data was offset by robust economic growth, fueled in part by the boom in AI investment. Positively, the yield curve continued to steepen, with two-year Treasury yields falling 11 basis points while 30-year yields were down just four basis points. The difference between two-year and 30-year Treasury yields ended the quarter at 112 basis points, roughly 65 basis points steeper than a year ago, and remained supportive of longer-term investments such as agency RMBS and agency CMBS.

The chart in the upper right reflects changes in short-term funding rates over the past year, with the third quarter highlighted in gray. While financing capacity for our assets remained ample and haircuts unchanged, one-month repo spreads began to indicate funding pressures in late September and continued into October, widening approximately five basis points. Steady issuance of T-bills caused dealers to become very low on collateral, squeezing balance sheets and putting upward pressure on repo rates. We believe the FOMC announcement on Wednesday to end quantitative tightening at the end of November was largely in response to this pressure, but further adjustments may be necessary before repo spreads can unwind the recent widening. Lastly, the bottom right chart highlights the significant decline in implied interest rate volatility since the middle of April.

This improvement has provided the tailwind for risk assets in recent months, particularly agency RMBS, and is largely driven by diminishing tail risk across fiscal, monetary, and trade policies, as well as potential deregulation measures that should encourage greater investment in fixed income securities. Slide five provides more detail on the agency mortgage market. In the upper left chart, we showed 30-year current coupon performance versus U.S. Treasuries over the past year, highlighting the third quarter in gray. Agency mortgage performance was impressive during the quarter as the decline in interest rate volatility supported persistent demand for money managers and mortgage rates while net supply continued to undershoot expectations. Although bank and overseas demand remained subdued, steady inflows into money managers and robust capital raising by mortgage REITs helped offset the weakness, resulting in strong returns for the sector.

30-year mortgage rates declined during the quarter as tighter mortgage spreads, lower interest rates, and compression in the primary/secondary spread led to a decline of nearly 50 basis points. This decline in mortgage rates dampened the performance of higher coupons relative to those lower in the stack as investors were reluctant to increase prepayment risk in their portfolios. While generic collateral and discount coupons outperformed Treasury hedges by 90 to 130 basis points, similarly, generic collateral in 6% and 6.5% coupons outperformed by a more modest 30 to 70 basis points. In the upper right-hand chart, we show higher coupon specified pool payouts, which are the premium investors pay for specified pools over generic collateral and are representative of the bonds that Invesco Mortgage Capital owns.

Positively, payouts improved during the quarter, offsetting a portion of their underperformance relative to lower coupons, given increased investor demand for additional prepayment protection and premium coupons. Although Invesco Mortgage Capital’s prepayment speeds were relatively unchanged during the quarter at just over 10 CPR, higher coupons did indicate a faster refi response to the decline in mortgage rates in September, and we expect a similar response in speeds this month. This recent increase in refinancing activity is expected to be somewhat short-lived, however, as increased refi efficiencies result in swifter responses and reduced flag times, with November speeds expected to decline. We continue to believe that owning prepayment protection via specified pools, particularly in premium price holdings, remains a beneficial way to hold attractively priced mortgage exposure. Slide six details our agency RMBS investments and summarizes investment portfolio changes during the quarter.

Our agency RMBS portfolio increased 13% quarter over quarter as we invested proceeds from ATM issuance and maintained leverage as book value improved. The majority of our net purchases occurred in 4.5% versus 5.5% coupons, with a decline in our 6% and 6.5% allocations a result of paydowns and the growth in the overall portfolio. Although we continue to focus our specified pool allocation on prepayment characteristics that are expected to perform well in both premium and discount environments, price appreciation in our holdings has resulted in a higher percentage of our pools valued at premium dollar prices. Therefore, while we remain most comfortable with lower loan balance specified pool stories, we increased our exposure to borrowers with higher loan-to-value ratios given our expectation for slowing home price appreciation, resulting in a reduced refi response for these borrowers.

Overall, we remain constructive on agency RMBS as supply and demand technicals are favorable and lower levels of interest rate volatility should continue to encourage strong demand for the sector. We believe near-term risks have become more balanced following recent outperformance, with nominal spreads tightening approximately 20 bps during the quarter. However, valuations remain attractive with the current coupon spreads to the five and 10-year SOFR blend ending the quarter near 170 bps, equating to levered gross returns in the upper teens. Slide seven provides detail on our agency CMBS portfolio. Risk premiums tightened during the quarter, consistent with broader financial markets. Given the more attractive relative value in agency RMBS, we did not add to our agency CMBS position during the quarter and maintained current holdings, with our allocation declining modestly due to the growth in the portfolio.

Despite the lack of new purchases, we continue to believe agency CMBS offers many benefits, mainly through its prepayment protection and fixed maturities, which reduce our sensitivity to interest rate volatility. Leveraged gross ROEs are in the low double digits and consistent with ROEs in lower coupon agency RMBS, and we have been disciplined on adding exposure only when the relative value between agency CMBS and agency RMBS accurately reflects their unique risk profiles. Financing capacity has been robust as we continue to fund our positions with multiple counterparties at attractive levels. We will continue to monitor the sector for opportunities to increase our allocation as the relative value becomes attractive, recognizing the overall benefits to the portfolio as the sector diversifies risks associated with an agency RMBS portfolio. Slide eight details our funding and hedging book at quarter end.

Repurchase agreements collateralized by our agency RMBS and agency CMBS investments increased from $4.6 billion to $5.2 billion, consistent with the increase in our total assets, while the total notional of our hedges increased from $4.3 billion to $4.4 billion as our hedge ratio declined from 94% to 85%. The table on the right provides further detail on our hedges at year-end. The composition of our hedges shifted modestly towards U.S. Treasury futures quarter over quarter, with 77% of our hedges consisting of interest rate swaps on a notional basis, while on a dollar duration basis, the allocation declined to 63%, given a higher allocation to interest rate swaps closer to the front end of the curve. Swap spreads widened during the quarter, unwinding a portion of the tightening experienced in the second quarter, serving as a tailwind for our performance.

Despite the recent widening, we continue to believe swap spreads are still historically tight and should continue to normalize, benefiting the company, and we maintain our preference for interest rate swaps over U.S. Treasury futures. Slide nine provides detail on our capital structure and highlights the improvement made in recent quarters to reduce our cost of capital. Further improvement in the capital structure remains a focus of our management team as we seek to prudently maximize shareholder returns. To conclude our prepared remarks, financial market volatility has declined notably since the beginning of the second quarter, resulting in strong performance for most risk assets in the last five months. IVR’s economic return of 8.7% during the third quarter is a result of that positive momentum, but also reflects our disciplined approach to capital activity and our focus on shareholder returns.

In recent years, we have taken significant yet prudent steps towards improving our capital structure and reducing the cost of capital to our common stock shareholders. We remain committed to that approach as we seek to further reduce expenses while enhancing returns and improving scale. We believe our liquidity position provides substantial cushion for further potential market stress while also providing sufficient capital to deploy into our target assets as the investment environment evolves. While we view near-term risks as somewhat balanced, we believe further easing of monetary policy will lead to a steeper yield curve and lower interest rate volatility, both of which will provide a supportive backdrop for agency mortgages over the long term. Thank you for your continued support for Invesco Mortgage Capital, and now we will open the line for Q&A.

Operator: We will now begin the question and answer session. If you would like to ask a question, please press star one. You will be prompted to record your name. To withdraw your question, you may press star two. Again, press star one to ask a question. One moment, please, for our first question. Our first question comes from Trevor Cranston with Citizens JMP Securities. Your line is open. You may ask your question.

Trevor Cranston, Analyst, Citizens JMP Securities: Hey, thanks. Good morning. You were just talking about the changes in the hedge portfolio moving a little bit towards Treasuries this quarter. Can you talk in general about kind of where your net duration exposure is at and if you have any general position with respect to the shape of the yield curve? The second question on the hedge portfolio is how you guys are thinking about potentially using options given the decline in the cost of volatility. Thanks.

Brian Norris, Chief Investment Officer, Invesco Mortgage Capital: Hey, sure, Trevor. Good morning. Thanks for the question. Yeah. I’ll tackle yield curve first. We’ve kind of had a bit of a steepener on for a while now, and we started to reduce that a little bit, preferring to move more of our hedges into the front end of the curve. Obviously, the Fed did cut rates on Wednesday. Chair Powell did express that future cuts are a little less certain than the market was expecting. I think that would result in a bit of a flatter curve than what we’ve been seeing, as potentially those cuts start to get priced out of the market. We like being—we’re still positioned for a bit of a steepener, but we did reduce that just a little bit.

As far as the overall net duration of the portfolio, we have historically preferred to have empirical duration as close to zero as we can get it. Given the fact that most of our pools—or a larger percentage of our pools—are now in premium prices, we do think that we have a little bit more risk towards a rally in interest rates. At least from a model duration perspective, we are running model duration just slightly long versus kind of being more historically flat. We still do prefer interest rate swaps. We do think that, like we said, we do expect swap spreads to continue to normalize. As that occurs, we’ll kind of continue to move more into U.S. Treasury futures, just given some of the benefits that we see there from a liquidity and margining perspective.

Right now, we still think that there’s—we still have a bit of widening to do in there, so we like to lean more heavily into swaps.

Trevor Cranston, Analyst, Citizens JMP Securities: Got it. Okay, that’s helpful. With the tightening that we saw in agency spreads in the last quarter, can you talk about where you’re seeing returns on kind of marginal capital deployment relative to the existing dividend level? Thanks.

Brian Norris, Chief Investment Officer, Invesco Mortgage Capital: Yeah. At the end of the quarter, levered gross returns were in the upper teens. Net returns were kind of mid-teen area. That’s pretty consistent with where our dividend to book yield is. We feel like it’s supportive of that level. We’ve seen a little bit of compression so far in October, just given further outperformance in mortgages. Recently, we have seen those levels kind of back up a little bit since the Fed meeting. I think mostly in line with what the earnings power of the portfolio currently is.

Trevor Cranston, Analyst, Citizens JMP Securities: Got it. Okay. Appreciate the comments. Thank you.

Operator: Thank you. As a reminder, if you’d like to ask a question, just press star one. Our next question comes from Doug Harter with UBS Investment Bank. Your line is open. You may ask your question.

Doug Harter, Analyst, UBS Investment Bank: Thanks. Good morning. Can you talk about your appetite for continuing to kind of change the capital structure with the buyback of the preferred and issuance of common? As you look at those transactions, the combined effect of that transaction, did that have any impact on book value in the quarter?

Brian Norris, Chief Investment Officer, Invesco Mortgage Capital: Yeah. Hey, Doug, it’s Sean. On the preferred buybacks, those are relatively small. Obviously, I think there is— The impact was pretty minimal on that. I think around $2 million we bought back. Those— It’s just harder sliding on those because the volume of trading is relatively low. We’ll continue to buy those back as long as that makes sense and they’re trading below $25, which didn’t have a big impact on the capital structure, although it went in the right direction. Oh, and then, yeah, issuing common—I mean, obviously, in terms of common stock, we’re trading in a—we’ve been trading at a discount. We’ve not issued any recently, which would go in the right direction for improving the capital structure. In terms of going the other way, in terms of buybacks, we have been active in the past buying back shares.

Typically, we look for times when the price-to-book ratio is persistently low over an extended period of time. It kind of bounces around quite a bit, and we look for consistent discount and also when investment opportunities are not accretive. Right now, we’re still seeing relatively accretive investment opportunities. We’re not buying back shares now, but certainly, if those conditions occur, we will certainly look at doing that.

Doug Harter, Analyst, UBS Investment Bank: Great. Moving back to the investment opportunities, just how you’re seeing the relative value between agency CMBS and agency RMBS today?

Brian Norris, Chief Investment Officer, Invesco Mortgage Capital: Yeah. Hey, Doug. It’s Brian. Yeah. I mean, agency RMBS continues to provide a more attractive ROE, I think. Agency CMBS, like I said in my comments, the return potential there is a bit more in line with what we would call lower coupon agency RMBS, and it continues to have a lot of benefits. I think to the extent that agency RMBS is still mid to upper teens, we would probably look to see a bit more compression between the two before we would look to significantly move more towards agency CMBS. We do like continuing to hold those securities as they do provide a lot of complexity benefits for the portfolio.

Doug Harter, Analyst, UBS Investment Bank: Great. Thank you.

Operator: Thank you. At this time, I’m showing no further questions. I’ll turn the call back over to the speakers.

Thank you, everybody, again for joining, and look forward to speaking to you next quarter.

Thank you. This does conclude today’s conference. We thank you for your participation. At this time, you may disconnect your line.

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