Earnings call transcript: Recruit Holdings Q2 2025 revenue beats expectations

Recruit Holdings Co. Ltd. reported its financial results for the second quarter of 2025, showing a positive performance with total consolidated revenue reaching ¥914.7 billion, a 2% increase year-over-year. The company’s stock experienced a modest rise, with a 1.25% increase in its share price following the announcement. The company also revised its full-year revenue and EBITDA guidance upwards, indicating a stronger outlook for the remainder of the fiscal year.

Key Takeaways

• Recruit Holdings’ Q2 revenue increased by 2% year-over-year, reaching ¥914.7 billion.
• The company revised its full-year revenue guidance to ¥3,598.5 billion, a 1.2% increase.
• EBITDA margin stood at 22.7% for the quarter.
• The stock price rose by 1.25% following the earnings announcement.

Company Performance

Recruit Holdings demonstrated solid performance in Q2 2025, with revenue growth driven by strategic innovations and market expansion. The company’s focus on operational efficiency and new monetization strategies in its HR technology segment contributed to its positive results. Compared to previous quarters, the company maintained a steady growth trajectory despite broader economic uncertainties.

Financial Highlights

• Revenue: ¥914.7 billion, up 2% YoY
• EBITDA Margin: 22.7%
• First Half Revenue: ¥1,793.5 billion, down 0.3% YoY
• Full Year Revenue Guidance: Revised up to ¥3,598.5 billion (+1.2% YoY)
• Full Year EBITDA Guidance: Revised up to ¥733.5 billion (+8.1% YoY)

Outlook & Guidance

Recruit Holdings has revised its full-year revenue and EBITDA guidance upwards, reflecting confidence in its growth strategies. The company expects continued revenue growth in the US and Europe, with a focus on expanding its premium job posting services and leveraging AI for job matching. The introduction of the US Average Revenue Per Job Posting (US ARPJ) as a new key performance indicator highlights its commitment to enhancing monetization.

Executive Commentary

Junichi Arai, a key executive at Recruit Holdings, emphasized the broad scope of the job market, stating, "The job market is huge. It is not specific to certain industries. It covers all industries." This statement underscores the company’s strategic focus on diverse market opportunities. Arai also highlighted the company’s cautious approach to mergers and acquisitions, noting, "We do not think of doing M&A to increase our revenue. Even if we do that, it is for the future."

Risks and Challenges

• Economic Uncertainty: Global economic fluctuations could impact recruitment and job market dynamics.
• Competitive Pressure: Intense competition in HR technology may affect market share.
• Technological Advancements: Rapid changes in technology require continuous innovation.
• Regulatory Changes: Potential changes in labor laws could alter operational strategies.
• Workforce Reduction: Recent workforce reductions may affect employee morale and productivity.

Q&A

During the earnings call, analysts inquired about the impact of AI on the job market and the company’s new US ARPJ metric. Executives addressed concerns about job market recovery, emphasizing the role of AI in redistributing rather than eliminating jobs. The discussion also covered the company’s monetization strategy, highlighting its focus on enhancing revenue through innovative solutions.

Full transcript - Recruit Holdings (6098) Q2 2026:

Mizuho Shen, Manager of Investor Relations and Public Relations, Recruit Holdings: This call is a simultaneous translation of the original call held in Japanese, provided solely for the convenience of investors. Thank you for joining the Recruit Holdings FY 2025 Q2 earnings call. I’m Mizuho Shen, Manager of Investor Relations and Public Relations. Today, I will give a brief talk about our business, then Junichi Arai, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, will give a presentation on results and guidance, followed by a Q&A session. Please note that today’s session, including the Q&A, will be posted on our IR website after the event. Starting this fiscal year, we have integrated HR Solutions from Matching & Solutions into HR Technology. Accordingly, the year-on-year comparison of segment results in this fiscal year’s financial presentation is based on FY 2024 pro forma figures, which assume that this integration had been effective as of April 1, 2024.

Unless otherwise stated, comparisons will be made year over year. Lastly, please note that all references to dollars in this presentation refer to US dollars. We have three business segments. HR Technology features Indeed and Glassdoor, which together create a global two-sided talent marketplace across more than 60 countries, with a focus on the US. As the core of our simplifying strategy, Indeed uses its broad reach, AI-powered matching, and tools for faster connections to make the hiring process more efficient for employers and help job seekers find jobs faster and more easily. This strategy is enhanced in Japan through the Indeed Plus job distribution platform and the integration of placement services, including Recruit Agent. Staffing consists of two major operations: Japan and Europe, US and Australia. Between 2010 and 2016, we expanded to our current scale and structure through multiple global acquisitions of staffing companies.

Marketing Matching Technologies, or MMT, consists of marketing solutions of the former Matching & Solutions. In Japan, MMT provides vertical matching platforms that connect individual users and business clients in areas like the lifestyle subsegment, which includes beauty, travel, dining, and SaaS solutions, as well as the housing and real estate subsegment and others. These platforms offer services including information and online reserving and booking services. Now, over to Arai-san. Thank you very much. We have a slightly longer presentation than usual, so I hope you could bear with me. I will discuss the following four highlights of the fiscal year 2025 Q2 earnings presentation. One, in HR Technology, revenue in the US for Q2 increased by 5.8% year over year to $1.33 billion. Two, we have upwardly revised the full year US revenue outlook in HR Technology from 0.3% year over year increase, basically flat.

Announced in May, to a 5.6% increase. Three. The full year consolidated financial guidance has been revised upward. Consolidated EBITDA +S for this fiscal year has been revised upward from JPY 697 billion to JPY 733.5 billion. Four. Net cash at the end of September 2025 was JPY 590.5 billion. We commenced a new share repurchase program of JPY 250 billion on October 17. This is in line with the policy we announced in May 2024 to reduce net cash to around JPY 600 billion by the end of FY 2025. After reviewing our consolidated results for Q2 and the first half, I will discuss the performance and outlook by segment, followed by our full year consolidated guidance, and finally, our capital allocation policy. Regarding FY 2025 Q2 consolidated results.

In HR Technology, our focused monetization efforts were the primary driver of revenue growth, successfully counteracting the impact of a softer job market in the US. Revenue in Marketing Matching Technologies, or MMT, increased, and revenue in Staffing remained flat. As a result, total consolidated revenue increased by 2% to JPY 914.7 billion. As a result of continued efforts across all segments to further enhance productivity, EBITDA +S margin was 22.7%, exceeding Q1 of this fiscal year, driven by margin expansion in HR Technology and MMT. EBITDA +S margin over gross profit was 38.2%, reflecting our underlying cash flow generating capability. Before adding back stock-based compensation expenses, EBITDA margin improved compared to the same period last year, reaching 21.3%. For the first half of FY 2025, revenue decreased 0.3% to JPY 1,793.5 billion. EBITDA +S margin continued to expand, reaching 22%.

Now, I will move on to the results and outlook by segment. I will start by the results for HR Technology. For Q2, segment revenue on a US dollar basis increased by 4.5% year over year, and 2.1% quarter over quarter to $2.41 billion. On a Japanese yen basis, segment revenue increased by 2.9% year over year to JPY 355.7 billion. As for revenue by region, turning to our US performance, despite an approximately 8% decline in job postings, US revenue increased by 5.8% year over year and by 5.6% quarter over quarter to $1.33 billion, exceeding our initial expectations. This was driven by successful monetization development of paid job ads, with a notable contribution from Premium Sponsored Jobs. This solution enhances our paid job ads by incorporating key features and leverages Indeed advanced matching and targeting technology.

Revenue in Europe and others increased by 14.7% year over year to $509 million. The U.K., Canada, and Germany together accounted for about two-thirds of Indeed revenue for Europe and others on a U.S. dollar basis. The revenue growth was primarily driven by the U.K. and Canada, where monetization development led to revenue growth of approximately 8% year over year, respectively, on a local currency basis, as well as by foreign exchange impacts. Starting this fiscal year, HR Technology Japan consists of job advertising services, placement services, and other hiring-related services after integrating HR Solutions of the former Matching & Solutions. Revenue in Japan decreased by 7.2% year over year to JPY 84 billion, or declined by 5.7% year over year on a U.S. dollar basis. Our job advertising service, Indeed Plus, which launched in January 2024, is performing above initial expectations.

However, our placement services fell short of the initial assumption. This shortfall occurred because we underestimated the business impact of the system migration processes that followed our recent organizational integration. Even excluding the impact of the difference between gross to net revenue recognition related to the transition to Indeed Plus, overall Japanese revenue came in below our initial expectations. Segment EBITDA +S margin expanded to 37.9%, driven by improved productivity and enhanced operational efficiency in the US and in Europe and others. Even in a business environment where the total number of US job postings continued to decline, the successful combination of a monetization development and improvements in operational efficiency and productivity was clearly reflected in segment EBITDA margin, which increased by 6.6 percentage points from the same quarter last year to 34.7%. As a result.

For the first half, on a US dollar basis, segment revenue increased by 4.1% year over year to $4.77 billion, and on a Japanese yen basis, decreased by 0.5% year over year to JPY 697.5 billion. As for revenue by region, in the U.S., revenue increased by 3.4% year over year to $2.59 billion. In Europe and others, revenue increased by 13.7% year over year to $985 million. In Japan, revenue decreased by 5.8% year over year to JPY 174.3 billion, or decreased by 1.3% year over year to $1.19 billion. Although placement services revenue fell slightly short of our initial expectations, job advertising services revenue performed above expectations, resulting in total revenue in Japan coming in slightly above our initial projections. Segment EBITDA +S margin was 36.5%.

For the first half, sales commission, promotion expenses, and advertising expenses in total amounted to approximately 13% of segment revenue, while employee benefit expenses and service outsourcing expenses totaled approximately 46% of revenue, reflecting the impact of the workforce reduction announced in early July, which began to take effect in the latter half of the first half. Now I will discuss the second half outlook. Before diving into the outlook, today I am introducing a new key performance indicator to track our monetization progress and serve as an important indicator of the future evolution of HR Technology in the US. The US average revenue per job posting on Indeed, or US ARPJ growth rate. Hereafter, we refer to the US average revenue per job posting as US ARPJ.

For clarity, the US ARPJ is calculated by dividing HR Technology US revenue by the total number of free and paid jobs in the US, including those posted directly to Indeed and those aggregated from the internet. It represents the average revenue generated per job posting on Indeed in the US. The US ARPJ is based not only on paid job ads, but the denominator includes all jobs listed on Indeed, regardless of whether they are paid or free. Its year-over-year growth rate is the US ARPJ growth rate. The revenue increase of 5.8% in the US during this Q2 was driven by the US ARPJ growth rate coming in at approximately 15% increase year over year, despite an approximately 8% decline in the total number of job postings.

For the first half, the US ARPJ growth rate was around 13% increase year over year, clearly demonstrating the progress and success of our monetization strategy. This chart shows the indexed trend in total number of US job postings on Indeed from February 2020 to the present, represented here by the Indeed Hiring Lab US Job Posting Index. This index is based on the total number of US job postings used in calculating the US ARPJ growth rate. It is important to understand that this index is based on both free and paid job postings on Indeed, which are sourced in two ways. Hosted jobs are posted directly on Indeed by business clients. Indexed jobs are aggregated by Indeed from employer websites and other sources across the internet. Our CEO, Dicko, stated in May 2024.

That we assume that hiring demand in the US will hit the bottom after decreasing for another 18 or 24 months, i.e., this second half. We will run our business based on that. Given the current US business environment, we still expect hiring demand in the US to be broadly in line with our assumption at the beginning of this fiscal year, which is to continue a modest year-over-year decline throughout the second half, with the trend bottoming out in Q4. Based on our assumption, we have revised our US revenue outlook for Q3 and Q4. This chart shows the quarterly trend of US revenue in HR Technology since Q4 FY 2019, together with the index chart that I mentioned earlier. On the far right, we have added HR Technology’s assumed trend for the IHL US Job Posting Index in the second half and the revenue outlook for Q3 and Q4.

Looking at these results through Q2, as you can see. Through FY 2023, HR Technology US quarterly revenue moved largely in line with this index. However, from the beginning of FY 2024 through the first half of the current fiscal year, meaning six quarters, HR Technology US revenue has decoupled from the declining trend in job postings. This divergence is the direct result of ongoing developments in monetization, which we have been successfully executing since our CEO, Dicko, announced the beginning of year zero in May 2024. A period of strengthening our foundation and preparing for a recovery in the business environment following the downturn. To provide clear insight into this divergence, we will report the US ARPJ growth rate as a new KPI.

This metric represents our continued progress in evolving our business, capturing the success of our entire product and monetization strategy built on Indeed’s foundation as a two-sided talent marketplace that connects job seekers and employers. Currently, paid job ads remain just under one quarter of the total number of US job postings on Indeed. As we increase this penetration and as more business clients adopt our other value-added subscription services, including sourcing, branding, and new AI products, the US ARPJ will rise, and its growth rate will accelerate, further widening the divergence from the IHL index growth rate. Now, turning to our US revenue outlook for Q3 and Q4 in US dollars, despite an anticipated year-over-year decline of around 7% in the total number of US job postings in the second half, we expect the US ARPJ to continue growing year-over-year at around 16% for the second half.

We expect revenue for Q3 to increase by 7.2% year-over-year and decrease by 4.8% quarter over quarter, reflecting the seasonality of the holiday period when both job seeking and hiring activities tend to slow down. For Q4, we expect revenue to increase by 8.6% year-over-year and by 1.6% Q1Q. Our second half outlook is based on exchange rate assumptions of JPY 145 to the dollar and JPY 172 to the euro. We expect segment revenue to increase by 7.8% year-over-year to $4.74 billion and to increase by 2.5% year-over-year to JPY 687.9 billion. By region in the U.S., based on the quarterly revenue assumptions I discussed earlier, we expect revenue to increase by 7.9% year-over-year to $2.56 billion and to decrease by 1.4% compared to the first half, reflecting normal seasonality. In Europe and others, we expect revenue to increase by.

21.5% year-over-year to $1.03 billion, reflecting ongoing developments in monetization. In Japan, revenue in placement services, as explained earlier, will continue to decline in the second half, and we expect revenue to decrease by 7.2% year-over-year to JPY 167 billion, or by 2.4% year-over-year to $1.15 billion. As I stated in the earnings presentation in May, in Japan, we are prioritizing the stable operation of our newly reorganized structure following personnel reassignments to facilitate future growth in the coming years. Since April, we have focused on maintaining stable operations for the integrated organization while launching a range of initiatives to drive business evolution and enhance efficiency, including actively leveraging AI to support future growth. Some of these initiatives are already yielding results, while others have required us to make adjustments.

For those that did not meet our initial expectations, we have identified the underlying causes and are working to rectify and improve them. We remain committed to pursuing innovation boldly without fear of failure. Although corrective measures have already been underway, placement services generally take more than six months from the time a job seeker is introduced to a position until a successful match is finalized and revenue is recognized. Therefore, we expect the impact of these corrective actions to begin contributing from the first half of next fiscal year. Segment EBITDA +S margin is expected to reach 35.1%, up 3.4 percentage points from 31.7% in the second half of last fiscal year, as we aim to balance monetization developments with further improvements in operational efficiency and productivity, even in a business environment where US hiring demand continues to decline modestly year-over-year.

Margin expansion in the US and in Europe and others is expected to continue, driven by upward revisions of revenue and progress in efficiency improvements, including the workforce reduction implemented in July. In Japan, we expect lower revenue due to the performance of placement services to contribute to a lower EBITDA +S margin. However, we also plan to control advertising and other promotional expenses carefully, which will partially offset the negative impact on margins. Based on the results for the first half and the outlook for the second half, the four-year outlook has been revised upward. We now expect segment revenue to increase by 5.9% year-over-year to $9.52 billion, up from the initial outlook of a 2.4% increase to $9.2 billion. On a Japanese yen basis, we have revised our outlook upward to 1.

JPY 385.5 billion, representing a 1.0% increase year-on-year from the initial outlook of a 2.8% decrease to JPY 334.4 billion. By region in the US, we have revised our outlook upward from the initial assumption of a 0.3% year-on-year increase to an increase of 5.6%, reaching $5.15 billion. In Europe and others, we have revised our outlook upward from the initial expectation of an 8.1% year-on-year increase to a 17.6% increase, reaching $2.01 billion. In Japan, we have revised our outlook downward from the initial expectation of a 2.7% year-on-year decrease to a 6.5% decrease to JPY 341.3 billion, and on a US dollar basis to $2.34 billion, representing a 1.9% decrease year-on-year. Segment EBITDA +S margin has been revised upward from the initial outlook of 34.5% to 35.8%, representing an increase of 2.8 percentage points from 33% in the last fiscal year.

Segment EBITDA margin is expected to be 31.1%, representing an increase of 3.7 percentage points from 27.4% in the last fiscal year. As for Staffing, segment revenue in Q2 increased by 0.8% to JPY 421.3 billion. In Japan, revenue increased by 6.1% to JPY 209.4 billion, driven by stable demand for Staffing. In Europe, US, and Australia, revenue declined by 3.9% to JPY 211.8 billion. This represents an improvement from the first quarter, driven by increased orders from large business clients, as well as the impact of the Japanese yen depreciation. Segment EBITDA +S margin was 6.6%. For the first half of the fiscal year, segment revenue decreased 1.3% to JPY 829.4 billion. Segment EBITDA +S margin was 6.6%. For the second half outlook, segment revenue is expected to increase 2.3% to JPY 846 billion. Segment EBITDA margin is expected to be 4.8%.

For the four-year outlook, we have revised segment revenue to JPY 1,675.4 billion and segment EBITDA +S margin to 5.7%, with only minor changes from the figures disclosed on May 9th. Next, I will discuss Marketing Matching Technologies, or MMT. Regarding Q2 results, segment revenue increased by 6.3% year-over-year to JPY 144.3 billion, with revenue growth across all subsegments. Revenue in lifestyle, which consists of beauty, travel, dining, and sales solutions, increased by 8.5% to JPY 76.9 billion, driven by the continued growth in new business clients in beauty. Revenue in housing and real estate increased by 4.3% to JPY 38.5 billion, driven by the growth in the number of contracts closed for custom homes through Suumo Counter, our face-to-face housing consultation service. Revenue in others, which includes car and bridal, increased by 3.5% to JPY 28.8 billion.

Segment EBITDA +S margin expanded to 32.3%, driven by appropriate cost control, principally related to service outsourcing expenses. For the first half, segment revenue increased by 6.7% year-on-year to JPY 281.2 billion, and the segment EBITDA +S margin was 31.9%. For the second half outlook, segment revenue is expected to increase by 3.7% to JPY 286 billion, driven by continued strong performance in lifestyle, including growth in new business clients in beauty and dining, and continued increases in the number of room nights and unit price in travel. Segment EBITDA +S margin is expected to be 22.2%. I will now explain the background behind the significant difference in EBITDA +S margins between the first half and the second half of MMT. The primary factor is the seasonality of advertising and sales promotion expenses in the Japanese market.

When planning for the next fiscal year, MMT carefully prioritizes these expenses across its subsegments, consolidating proposals submitted by the respective business units. Based on the latest performance outlook during the fiscal year, MMT allocates funds intensively and effectively in line with these priorities when the number of actions by individual users on our matching platform increases. Our Q4 coincides with the timing when the number of actions taken by individual users increases the most within the fiscal year, due to the start of the new fiscal year in Japan in April, particularly in housing and real estate. By concentrating our spending on these expenses during this period every fiscal year, MMT aims to maintain and increase the revenue recognized in Q4 and in Q1 of the following fiscal year. In the previous fiscal year.

Approximately 36% of total annual sales commission, promotion expenses, and advertising expenses, broadly defined as marketing-related expenses, were recorded in Q4. Approximately 58% were recorded in the second half. With an EBITDA +S margin of 28.6% for the first half and 22.4% for the second half in this fiscal year. In addition to the concentration of usual seasonal expenses in the second half, we will increase sales promotion expenses exceeding initial projections to support new growth initiatives across multiple areas aimed at realizing increased revenue in fiscal year 2026 and beyond. As a result, we expect approximately 60% of the annual marketing-related expenses to be recognized in the second half of this fiscal year. Moreover, we have a one-time impact from a planned update to MMT’s accounting system at the end of the fiscal year.

This upgrade will refine our revenue recognition policy, moving from a previous pro-rata monthly allocation method to a daily basis recognition. This one-time transition means approximately JPY 5 billion in revenue and associated profit, which we had expected to book in March, will not be recognized within the current fiscal year. Taking this into account, we expect EBITDA +S margin for the second half to be 22.2% compared with 31.9% in the first half. The full-year segment revenue outlook is largely unchanged, with an expected increase of 5.1% year-over-year to JPY 567.2 billion, compared to the initial outlook of +5.1% year-over-year to JPY 567 billion, even after reflecting the one-off impact from the revenue recognition refinement that I mentioned earlier. Due to the one-off profit impact, segment EBITDA +S margin has been revised downward from the initial outlook of 27.5% to 27.0%.

Regarding our segment EBITDA plus S margin, our future targets remain unchanged. MMT aims to reach segment EBITDA plus S margin of 30% in fiscal year 2026 and approximately 35% by fiscal year 2028. We plan to share specific details about initiatives to drive revenue growth in the next fiscal year soon. Now, based on the segment outlooks, let me turn to our consolidated outlook for the second half. For the second half, we assume exchange rates of JPY 145 per $1 and JPY 172 per EUR 1. As for the consolidated outlook for the second half of the fiscal year, revenue is expected to be JPY 1.805 billion. EBITDA plus S is expected to be JPY 339 billion, with the EBITDA plus S margin to be 18.8%. We have revised the full-year consolidated guidance, reflecting the first half results and the second half outlook for each segment.

Revenue guidance has been revised from JPY 3.520 billion, -1.1% year-over-year, to JPY 3.5985 billion, +1.2% year-over-year. EBITDA plus S has been revised from JPY 697 billion, +2.7% year-over-year, to JPY 733.5 billion, +8.1% year-over-year. EBITDA plus S margin is expected to be 20.4%, with EBITDA plus S margin over gross profit assumed to be 34.5%. Profit attributable to owners of the parent has been revised to JPY 448.3 billion, representing an increase of 9.8% from the last fiscal year, and basic EPS is revised to JPY 313, up 15.3% year-over-year, reflecting the impact of share repurchases. Consolidated full-year results will be expected to reach new record highs. Our capital allocation measures, I would like to cover this topic last. During the first half, we repurchased approximately 53 million shares for JPY 423.7 billion.

Consolidated net cash and cash equivalents as of the end of September was JPY 590.5 billion. A new share repurchase program with an upper limit of JPY 250 billion started on October 17th, and the market repurchase is currently being conducted through an appointed securities dealer with transaction discretion. The repurchase period is scheduled to continue until April 30th, 2026 at the latest. We note that following the commencement of the share repurchase program, we may consider and execute strategic M&A transactions. The Board of Directors resolved today to pay an interim dividend of JPY 12.5 per share. The total per share dividend amount is expected to be JPY 25.0. We retired treasury stock in March of both fiscal year 2023 and fiscal year 2024 using shares acquired during the respective fiscal years.

We will also consider retiring the treasury stock to be acquired through our share repurchase programs in fiscal year 2025 at the end of the fiscal year, taking into account market and business conditions. Finally, regarding the total payout ratio for the fiscal year, if we assume the currently ongoing JPY 250 billion share repurchase program is completed within the current fiscal year, in addition to the share repurchase results up to September 30 of this year, the total amount of shares repurchased this fiscal year will be JPY 677.9 billion. Additionally, taking into account the expected dividend for this fiscal year, the total payout ratio is expected to be approximately 159% based on our full-year consolidated earnings forecast announced today. This concludes my presentation. Now we’d like to proceed to the Q&A session. If anybody has a question, please click on the Zoom raise hand button.

Please unmute before asking your question. Please limit your question to one initial question and one follow-up question per turn. We would like to start the Q&A session. First, Nomura Securities, Ono, please. This is Ono from Nomura Securities. Thank you very much. My first question. US ARPJ. Second half plan. 16% increase, you said. Majority of that is Premium Sponsored Jobs contribution. Is that correct? Are there non-premium factors? Thank you very much. Thank you for the question. Of course, premium contribution is expected, but it is not only that. There are various factors that will contribute to this number. We have incorporated other factors. As I mentioned earlier, subscription sales have partially started. According to what we experience now, it seems like this is gaining traction. It is received positively. As I mentioned earlier, market will continue mildly expanding.

We want to harvest and exert this monetization impact. Whether you think this is questionable or aggressive or we can do more, I hope you could take a good guess. There are existing ones and the newly developed ones, newly launched ones. When we announce our Q3 results, we will share with you what contributed to the results. Thank you. My follow-up question is the current status of premium. If you could elaborate on that. I know it is difficult to disclose, but the breakdown between standard and premium, for example. What is the percentage of premium? The number of countries or regions that you have deployed this, where you stand. If you could give us a hint on penetration, it would be helpful. Today we focused on the U.S. How impactful a premium is in the U.S.

market and how things look like in Europe. I hope we can use a different parameter to explain going forward. Today we are focusing on the U.S. When we disclose these numbers, what is the revenue breakdown or hosted or indexed? All these breakdowns will continue. For today, we’d like to refrain from giving you the breakdown. The number of users using this is increasing as we speak. Thank you. Understood. I already used my right for one follow-up question, but in the premium, there are many functions. What is received well, particularly? The biggest reason for migration from standard to premium, merchant hiring or Dicko says, what we newly add on premium is what we often discuss. Any new things we can launch in the non-premium, what we include in the package, what we exclude from the package.

The combination thereof and how we deliver this, offer this to our users, and have received the payment, there are so many things, factors that we consider. Of course, we may add new functions to raise the price of premium package in some case, or do something else. I think the combination is diverse. We may add some new functions to increase the unit price or take another option, and that all determines the final result. We may share with you Q3, Q4 results on that. I hope you could look forward to it. The candidate and the targeting function, there are industries that like that and not so well in other industries. For the industries where this is popular, the numbers are showing. I cannot say this across the board. It’s difficult to make a general comment.

Markets are large and the needs differ from client to client. Thank you. Thank you. Next, Manakata San from Goldman Sachs Securities. Please go ahead. Hello. I am Manakata from Goldman Sachs. Thank you for this opportunity to ask questions regarding the second quarter. U.S. Indeed growth is quite strong, which is reassuring listening to your presentation. In addition, you have also disclosed the average revenue per job posting growth rate, which is very helpful. Here is my question. Comparing, you have the bar graph showing the index and the revenue overlapping. The divergence between the index and the revenue with more monetization developments, you mentioned that this would increase. Currently, the assumption for the growth rate is 16% for the second half, which is at a high level. From next fiscal year onwards, should we.

Expect that this growth rate, the US ARPJ growth rate, will be maintained or even be higher? Is that realistic? Also, more recently, Indeed, Talent Scout and other services have been announced. Monetization of these new services, I do not think will come in this fiscal year, but more so for the next fiscal year. Is that something we should expect? For the second quarter, the results, perhaps this is not something I should mention much to external parties, but I think the results have some of the DECO effects. Currently, DECO is on the ground leading various efforts, monetization developments, and perhaps there will be questions about this later from someone else. We are also working on increasing efficiency of the business. At such a high speed, we are working on both of these efforts in parallel.

Today, in my presentation, I talked about revenue outlook for the third and fourth quarters, and also our interpretation of the index, our expectation of the index. This is the latest information, latest data that we are sharing. At least for the third and the fourth quarters, we believe this is the level of impact of the monetization developments that we should expect. That is the pace that we are observing. For the next fiscal year, we’ve said that there will be many different things to be introduced on a subscription basis. There will be an AI tool to be offered. Things that are new that we have not done before will be introduced in the next fiscal year. For these new services to be translated into value and how we should monetize in tandem, these are some of the things that we are currently considering.

As for the market condition for fiscal year or calendar year 2026, we are making assumptions, and based on those assumptions, we are considering what should be the U.S. results that we can achieve for the next fiscal year. It is not simply based on what we currently have. There will be new things, things that we will be stopping. By combination of these various different pieces, we are thinking about how we can increase our KPI and to reach the numbers that we have disclosed. I consider these KPIs to be quite challenging, tough KPIs with a market recovery, with an increase in the number of jobs. Even if we achieve the same level of growth, the growth rate itself does not increase. Therefore, we have to always overachieve in order for the growth rate to increase.

Irrespective of the market recovery, we have to consider what are some of the pieces we need to introduce in order to increase and increase revenues that we receive from our clients. For next year, what will happen will be something we will be talking about in February and May. The fact that we have disclosed this this time shows our unwavering resolve and determination for this. Thank you. I think I personally felt that determination through your presentation. As a follow-up, in my recent conversation with investors on our side, generative AI services have become more common. Some investors have said that things like ChatGPT, these are generative AI services provided by others. Perhaps Indeed services may be replaced by services offered by other companies. That is a concern voiced by some investors. Could you elaborate once again on the strengths of Indeed?

For the past several months, when I met with investors, I myself have received the same questions from them. What I said, how I responded to those questions at the time was that when a job seeker uses things like ChatGPT, asking whether there’s any good job out there, the ChatGPT says, "What about this?" It also offers to write a nice resume. I think that’s a very plausible scenario. What would happen? Those are some of the questions that I actually received from the investors. At the time, what I said was that job seekers, if that were to happen, they would be able to apply to more jobs since it’s now easier. I think that’s something that we can expect to happen. If that is the case, how can we provide high-quality matching service.

To address both job seekers and business clients, to help them reach high-quality jobs or high-reach candidates, I think that is one direction that will certainly be important. Job seekers may be sending in hundreds of applications, but they are not getting any reply because this puts a lot of burden on the business client side, the employer side. DECO has said this from before. When matching becomes more difficult, how can we support the process is important. It is not simply placing advertisement or, rather, how can we help business clients discover high-quality candidates? How can we help them select better competitive candidates? I think these are the kind of services that will be in demand. In that sense, as I said, we have a two-sided marketplace. The fact that we have such a talent marketplace helps us increase the efficiency of matching.

That is how I responded to the questions from investors. Whether it is Yahoo, Google, or Facebook, there are already excellent platforms for jobs and technologies available for jobs. Other services have been in place. Maybe if it was 10 years ago, people thought that they already had these platforms and we would be no match. If we look at the reality, the story is different. Maybe some companies started and they were not successful. For e-commerce, rather than booking or e-commerce, there are things out there that are mass-produced. As long as you pay for them, you can acquire. Jobs are different. There is only one job, and selecting the right candidates, this is determined solely by the employers who are looking to hire people. This is where we are different from EC and booking. In other words, it is always two-way, two-sided. I believe.

The fact that we have the two-sided talent marketplace. This will continue to be appreciated by the two parties and to continue to be used by both sides. I think that’s the nature of our business. My answer might not have been concise, but I often talk about things like this whenever I receive those questions. I understand the concept well now. Thank you. How should I say. What can we offer to business clients? Simplifying hiring. Or helping clients determine whether a candidate is qualified or not. Whether this candidate is a real human person or not. I think in the future, there will need to be various aspects that need to be addressed. By strengthening these pieces, I believe we will be able to differentiate ourselves. That’s what DECO said. I see. Thank you very much. Thank you very much. Next, SMBC Nikko Securities.

Maeda-san, please. SMBC Nikko Securities. Maeda is my name. Thank you. You have this proprietary original investment improvement and generating results. It is great. The market model does not need to be worried, but every time we see the statistics, like you said, the job, we think will hit the bottom in Q4. As the stock market is having a more difficult view, maybe that is reflected in your share price. Once again, you think that the job trend will bottom out, will show signs of bottoming out in Q4. Any changes in your forecast? Are there any risks? When we say bottom, it is an image of ticking and turning upward. We tend to think of bottoming out that way. Even when there is a bottom, it does not necessarily mean a rapid recovery.

At the same time, it may not be overall. Trend. Industries may show different. Trends. We are starting to see many industries stopping their decline. The U.S. labor market is impacted positively. The decline in the labor supply in the U.S. is already impacting the market. We do not think it will continue declining sharply going forward. That said, it may not show a V-shaped recovery right away. To repeat my message, how we show our KPI, US ARPJ, how we raise our US ARPJ, our important KPI. This is our focus. Thank you. My follow-up question. If things go as expected, top line is growing as expected, but at one point in the future, you may shift gears to M&A. You are reducing cost through efficiencies. Once the projection changes, your cost will start rising again from Q4 to next fiscal year.

What is your basic thinking of investment in this business? As we’ve been mentioning from the past, we do not think of doing M&A to increase our revenue. Even if we do that, it is for the future. As we received questions earlier, how we improve our US ARPJ in the future will be the end goal. For that purpose, we may do M&A. We will not do M&A for a short-term increase in the revenue or improve the margin by reducing the headcount. We are not thinking of that at all. M&A will not have an impact in the short term, but will be impactful in the long run. It will not impact the performance in the short term. We will continue thinking on how we improve US ARPJ growth rate, same thing in the U.S. and further improvement in Japan. Once we see that.

Revenue will rise and cost can go down. I think that combination is to steadily pursue this organically. Thank you. Thank you very much. Yamamura-san from JPMorgan Securities, please go ahead. Thank you. This is Yamamura from JPMorgan. Can you hear me? Yes. Please go ahead. I just have one question for me. Regarding the outlook for the job postings, there may be two questions, actually. I have a question around that. In the second half, you’re expecting moderate recovery. There may not be a V-shaped recovery, but there should be a bottoming out in Q4, which is, I think, a good thing. As Maeda-san pointed out, it is true. The common debate, common discussion, there are two aspects. One is in North America, there has been restrictions on immigration, and if there is continued shortage of labor, it would put a lot of stress on recruits.

With the introduction of AI, of course, this would also impact Recruit’s business. These are the two points often raised whenever we discuss this. I would like to hear your views on these. With even more shortage of labor, perhaps business clients are more motivated to hire. With the introduction of AI, maybe some companies or some jobs will no longer require human labor, but for higher quality talent that companies are willing to pay for, I think there is a huge or even bigger demand for such talent. With the efforts that you are currently implementing, the monetization developments, perhaps it will positively mesh with these developments in the market. What is your view on the future state of your business? This is what DECO says. The U.S. market is becoming closer and more similar to the Japanese market. That is one thing.

That’s what he’s saying. Over the past decades, Japan, the Japanese market has experienced tightness. A labor population declining. The population aging, and others. We are seeing similar things in the U.S. market. He’s saying the market in the U.S. is becoming more similar to the Japanese market. As Yamamura-san said, things are happening in the market. What is happening today? What has happened? Perhaps if you trace them back to what has already happened in the Japanese market, you can certainly see the similar trend in the number of job postings is actually increasing. DECO today said this in one meeting. He, of course, looks at various stats, and he tries to explain them to us. He looked at the past examples of the U.S. market, and from the latter half of the 1990s to 2010s, over a 15-year period.

The number of workers in factories in the U.S. decreased from 17 million to 11 million. However, the production output actually increased over the same period. The white collar in the U.S. is said to be 30 million. With AI introduction, I think this is a segment of laborers that would be most impacted by AI. We may see some decrease, but as I said, things that happened in the factory workers could happen. The unemployment rate as a result of these things did not actually increase. Rather, workers were redistributed to other jobs, other types of jobs. I say, oh, is that right? The job market is huge. It is not specific to certain industries. It covers all industries. Therefore, the job market itself is enormous. I do not know what would be the analogies we would use as Japanese.

Maybe we would compare it to Lake Biwa. If you consider a huge lake and a small pond, just because AI is being introduced, it does not mean everyone will lose their job. I do not think that would happen. I do not think that is realistic. Maybe it will be the reality in certain areas. If you look at the entire pool, there may be more people working in other industries, people earning more in other industries. Perhaps those are the results that we can expect. If you consider all these things, in the U.S., the labor industry, or where we operate, are becoming more similar to Japan. If you look at what is in high demand in Japan, where business clients are paying to hire talent, if you look at the Japanese market, I think we should.

Reference that and consider them for what we are trying to do in the U.S. market going forward. With AI, I do not think there should be any immediate impact, but rather gradually things will start to change with AI. Let’s say the unemployment rate becomes 10%. If that were to happen, that is an extraordinary thing to happen. That is totally an extraordinary thing. I do not think that will happen. At least that is what we are saying internally. We are not trying to make any excuse here, but let’s say the unemployment rate becomes 10%, and that is something beyond our control. That is not something we can address. It is for the government, for the state to address. Of course, having said that, we want to help with no inflow of immigrants with the AI and so on. Of course, there are various factors, but they are localized.

You ask us questions about Recruit’s business being affected by these different pieces. I fully understand what you are saying, but we need to look at the entire pie, the number of jobs, the number of industries that exist. I become skeptical. With just these factors, would they bring a super huge impact on our business? It is like reducing the water in Lake Biwa by 10% or changing the color of the lake, what would it take? I think that is the kind of discussion that you are raising here. There may be people who say that the business is quite challenging. It may be difficult. I fully respect their opinions, but I do not fully agree. I do not think that is the extent of impact that we should expect. Going back to the question from earlier, should we expect a V-shaped recovery? No.

Even without such a V-shaped recovery, through efforts, I think we can go on. We want to go on. That is what I feel. Perhaps mobility will increase. The type of talent business clients want to hire may change. They need to change. People want to work where they are needed. I think that is the happiest situation for any worker. Of course, business clients who are looking to hire such people, I am sure there are clients out there who are willing to hire people who want to work with them. We want to help support these job seekers and business clients. What are the services that we need to offer to reach and realize those goals? You go to a restaurant in the U.S., you go some places, and they are experiencing a shortage of workers. Labor shortage is a serious issue. I see.

Whenever I have this, I talk with you, Yamamura-san, we end up having conversations like this, very casual chat. Mizuho, are we already over the time? It’s already been one hour, but I see more hands up, so maybe we can stay on until quarter two. We will go on to the next question. Morgan Stanley Securities, Tsusaka-san, please. Tsusaka speaking. Can you hear me? Yes. Thank you. Hello. I have a simple or maybe a complex question. Araisan, you talked about DECO impact. In one word. For Indeed, as an organization. DECO’s leadership is now incorporated. That resulted in a better growth than expected. Better pricing increase than expected. What is happening? Did the organization change or product change? I think all these factors are intertwined, but what? In what way did things happen? If you could elaborate, please.

I do not want to praise him so much that he blushes, but I did not hear directly from him. When I talk with Indeed headquarter people or the key office people, I understand that he is quick. When we work with DECO, it is quick. He knows what we want, and when things need to be decided, he decides right away. What we want to do is clearly communicated, so it is easy to work with him, people say. From the perspective of people working with him, I do not know, for lack of a better word, it is rewarding. It motivates you, gives you a sense of fulfillment. That is what I hear from people, especially the people in product and sales. They do very detailed meetings with DECO. If we make this kind of product, this is not good. This is what we want.

Sales, please do this. Very detailed requests come. And concrete answers come for questions and consultations. For sales increase and cost reduction, we can work on both sides in very concrete terms. The non-value-added products will not be focused. Focus is on their good results. Understand. This is the Recruit way. I understand. Thank you very much. Of course, job seekers are very important. How we offer value to job seekers comes first and foremost. That is the priority. At the same time, how we can be appreciated by our clients so that they use more money. DECO is the businessman. How we can bring a smile on clients’ faces, that is all he thinks about every day, day in and day out. Thank you very much. I’ll please ask him directly too. If there’s an opportunity, I will. Thank you.

Next, that will be the last question. Nagaoka-san from BofA Securities, please. Nagaoka-san. I don’t know if it’s a question or a comment. The ARPJ that you’ve disclosed, I have a question around that towards the second half. The ARPJ is going to increase. Looking at the formula, this is price-driven. If it is a price-driven increase, then that’s good. The algorithm has been improved. Product unit price is increased, and the profitability is enhanced. If the number of job postings is decreasing or free advertising, free jobs are increasing, we should see that this would contribute to the increase in the ARPJ as a residual effect. How should we interpret this for the second half? Arai-san, are you intending for this to be a price-driven increase? So far, we’ve had the Indeed model. If you continue to.

Have a very strong impression of the past Indeed model. If you look at the results six months from now or one year from now, you may think that the things are quite different from the expectations. I talked about subscription earlier for Indeed. This is a fairly new thing. We need to consider everything, including all these new things, divided by the number of jobs. We should see an increase in the ARPJ. As I said before, jobs that were not monetized in the past will bring in revenue, and the paid jobs in the past should enjoy higher efficiency. If clients are looking to reach better, more efficiently, then the clients can pay more. Changes of how the jobs change, irrespective of that.

If we have more clients who value and are willing to pay for these things, then the ARPJ should increase. Just because the number of jobs decreased doesn’t mean the growth rate increase is guaranteed. That is not the case. As I said before, this KPI is a quite challenging, tough KPI for us. The reason I say this is because we look at revenue for all jobs, so it includes jobs that we are not currently involved in at all. It is included in the denominator. It requires us to consider how we can start to monetize these jobs. That KPI includes all these things. That is why I say this is a very tough KPI. AI tools like screening, clients that are quite famous, they don’t need to advertise. They already get enough applications. They have too many candidates applying. Those are clients.

That did not pay for our services. Going forward, this is something we can offer and sell to these clients. These are clients that we were not able to do business with in the past. If we start to acquire these clients, then, going back to Nagaoka-san’s rather doubtful question, by doing things like this, we can increase. We can see an increase in the ARPJ. Perhaps I did not answer that question. No, I get it. With the economic downturn, the number of job postings decreased, but there are still clients who are struggling to hire, clients who are determined to hire people. They will use the company’s services and the paid advertisements or ARPJ. I do not know if it is going to be through subscription. In any case, the ARPJ will increase even in the economic downturn.

The more clients paying for your products and services, you can see a higher ARPJ. That’s certainly a realistic scenario. As a KPI, I understand that this is a very difficult, challenging KPI, that you’ve increased the hurdle rate yourselves. You are trying to take on this challenge yourself. I certainly see your determination, your resolve. It’s not that I’ve been doubtful. Sorry, because it’s you, Nagaoka-san. I was half-joking when I said your question was doubting our intentions. Going after new clients as part of our recent initiatives, we are starting to see positive results. That’s what we are discussing with the business side. DECO also wants to maintain this momentum and do even more. Since DECO is saying that we can do this, I think we can. At least that’s what I choose to believe. I see. Thank you very much.

Thank you very much for staying for a long time. With that, we will close the Recruit Holdings FY 2025 Q2 earnings call. Thank you very much for a late evening.

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