Earnings call transcript: Trex Q3 2025 Misses Earnings Expectations, Stock Dips

Trex Company Inc. reported its third-quarter 2025 earnings, revealing a notable drop in earnings per share (EPS) and revenue compared to forecasts. The company posted an EPS of $0.51, falling short of the anticipated $0.57, marking a 10.53% negative surprise. Revenue reached $285 million, missing the forecasted $301.55 million by 5.49%. Following the announcement, Trex’s stock price dropped 1.88% in after-hours trading, closing at $47.68.

Key Takeaways

• Trex’s Q3 2025 EPS and revenue both missed forecasts, leading to a stock price decline.
• Net sales increased by 22% year-over-year, reaching $285 million.
• The company maintained its market leadership in composite decking and railing.
• Trex launched new products, contributing to 25% of sales over the past year.
• The company authorized a $50 million share repurchase program.

Company Performance

Trex Company Inc. demonstrated substantial growth in net sales, which rose by 22% year-over-year to $285 million. The gross profit also saw a significant increase of 23.9%, reaching $115 million. Despite these positive metrics, the company faced challenges in meeting market expectations for EPS and revenue. Trex continues to hold a strong position in the composite decking and railing market, with no significant shifts in market share observed.

Financial Highlights

• Revenue: $285 million, up 22% year-over-year
• Gross profit: $115 million, up 23.9% year-over-year
• Gross margin: 40.5%, representing a 60 basis point expansion
• Net income: $52 million, or $0.48 per diluted share, up 27.7% year-over-year

Earnings vs. Forecast

Trex’s Q3 2025 earnings results fell short of expectations, with EPS at $0.51 compared to the forecast of $0.57, a 10.53% negative surprise. Revenue was also below expectations, at $285 million against a forecast of $301.55 million, resulting in a 5.49% shortfall. These misses contrast with the company’s historical trend of meeting or exceeding forecasts, highlighting a challenging quarter.

Market Reaction

Following the earnings release, Trex’s stock dropped 1.88% in after-hours trading, with the price settling at $47.68. This movement reflects investor disappointment with the earnings miss. The stock’s decline is notable given its 52-week range, with a high of $80.74 and a low of $46.32, indicating a challenging market environment for Trex.

Outlook & Guidance

Looking ahead, Trex provided guidance for Q4 2025 sales between $140 million and $150 million. The company anticipates a full-year adjusted EBITDA margin of 28% to 28.5%. Despite current challenges, Trex authorized a $50 million share repurchase program, signaling confidence in its long-term strategy.

Executive Commentary

CEO Bryan Fairbanks emphasized Trex’s competitive positioning, stating, "We are not seeing indications of share shifts at the ground level." He also highlighted the importance of maintaining brand presence despite increased marketing spend, noting, "Backing off on marketing and waiting for those tailwinds to start is not going to be an effective strategy."

Risks and Challenges

• Potential supply chain disruptions could impact production and delivery schedules.
• Increased competition and marketing spend from rivals may pressure market share.
• Macroeconomic factors, such as a slowdown in the repair and remodel industry, could affect demand.
• The need for economic tailwinds to stimulate project growth remains a concern.

Q&A

During the earnings call, analysts questioned Trex’s strategy in addressing softened sell-through after July and the impact of increased marketing expenditures. Executives reiterated their focus on converting wood decking to composite, underscoring the competitive nature of the market and the importance of maintaining brand visibility.

Full transcript - Trex Co. Inc (TREX) Q3 2025:

Conference Operator: Good day, and welcome to the Trex Company Third Quarter 2025 Earnings Conference Call. All participants will be in a listen-only mode. Should you need assistance, please signal a conference specialist by pressing the star key followed by zero. After today’s presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. To ask a question, you may press star, then one, on a touch-tone phone. To withdraw your question, please press star, then two. Please note this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Casey Kotary. Please go ahead.

Casey Kotary, Investor Relations, Trex Company: Thank you, everyone, for joining us today. With us on the call are Bryan Fairbanks, President and Chief Executive Officer, and Prith Gandhi, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. Joining Bryan and Prith is Amy Fernandez, Senior Vice President, Chief Legal Officer, and Secretary, as well as other members of Trex Management. The company issued a press release today after market close containing financial results for the third quarter of 2025. This release is available on the company’s website. This conference call is also being webcast and will be available on the investor relations page of the company’s website for 30 days. I will now turn the call over to Amy Fernandez. Amy?

Amy Fernandez, Senior Vice President, Chief Legal Officer, and Secretary, Trex Company: Thank you, Casey. Before we begin, let me remind everyone that statements on this call regarding the company’s expected future performance and conditions constitute forward-looking statements within the meaning of federal securities laws. These statements are subject to certain risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed in the forward-looking statements. For a discussion of such risks and uncertainties, please see our most recent Form 10-K and Form 10-Q, as well as our 1933 and other 1934 Act filings with the SEC. Additionally, non-GAAP financial measures will be referenced in this call. A reconciliation of these measures to the comparable GAAP financial measure can be found in our earnings press release at trex.com. The company expressly disclaims any obligation to update or revise publicly any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events, or otherwise.

With that introduction, I will turn the call over to Bryan Fairbanks.

Bryan Fairbanks, President and Chief Executive Officer, Trex Company: Thank you, Amy, and thank you all for participating in today’s call to review our third quarter results and discuss our business outlook. We anticipated 2025 would include some recovery in R&R spend based on historical trends. While there were indications of recovery in the second quarter and into July, consumer demand eased during the rest of the third quarter, resulting in third quarter revenues coming in 5% below the midpoint of our guidance range. But there were a number of positive takeaways worth noting. First, our positioning in the pro and home center channels continued to serve us well and remains a long-term advantage for Trex. Second, new products accounted for 25% of our trailing 12-month sales. This compares favorably with last year’s third quarter, when new products accounted for 18% of our 2024 nine-month sales, demonstrating how well aligned our new product launches are with consumer preferences.

Third, our railing strategy, now in its second full year, continues to yield positive results. In Q3, our sales were robust and in line with our expectations. And lastly, our profitability was strong, with gross profit benefiting from higher sales volumes and efficiencies gained from our continuous improvement projects and adjusted EBITDA increasing by 33%, inclusive of a 15% increase in SG&A spending. These results were achieved under mixed market conditions. As we look ahead, we believe these positive achievements in a challenging market will benefit Trex when the buying season begins in January 2026, in tandem with our early buy program. Trex continues to benefit from the strength of our channel positioning, being the leading company in our industry that serves the pro channel and is both on the shelf and available by special order at the leading home centers.

We continue to put priority on ensuring that Trex is present wherever the consumer is shopping for decking and railing products. Also, our new products, products we launched over the last 36 months, have shown impressive growth. While it generally takes about three years for new products to gain full traction, we are pleased with the early success of our most recent launches. This includes products we added to our Trex Select decking line. We launched three new colors featuring elevated aesthetics and performance, including the industry’s first mid-price deck board that includes SunComfort, our proprietary heat mitigating technology. In addition, Trex Select decking is submersible and rated for Wildland Urban Interface, making it ideal for marine applications in areas susceptible to wildfires. We now have the most differentiated mid-price product on the market.

And we continue to see strong demand across our railing portfolio, which we filled out in 2024 with the addition of our innovative Cable and glass railing systems and then added our new Enhanced steel system and Select aluminum systems in early 2025. Year to date, our railing sales are tracking to the double-digit year-on-year growth that was expected, and we are well positioned to continue on this path in 2026. We continue to elevate branding, marketing, and R&D spend in the third quarter to support future growth. Our new performance engineered for your Life Outdoors campaign launched earlier this year, and it highlights our leadership in delivering outdoor solutions that combine lasting beauty with real-world durability. These investments in branding and a refreshed marketing campaign have produced significant increases in early indicators of purchase intent.

Trex’s product sample program and website traffic are both up 50% year-on-year, and our improved cost calculator is driving higher completion rates and generating double-digit increases in lead generation for our contractors. Another highlight of the third quarter is the continued progress that we’re making at our new state-of-the-art plastic processing and decking facility in Arkansas. Production rates and yields in our plastic processing operations continue to surpass our initial expectations. These results support our expectation that once fully built, Arkansas will be our most efficient production hub, enabling us to capitalize on growth opportunities for years to come. Our level loading strategy, which is now completing its first full annual cycle, has allowed us to increase our operating efficiency and enabled us to work even more closely with our pro channel partners, positioning us to respond quickly when repair and remodel spend recovers.

As we noted in our earnings release today, we are anticipating a muted fourth quarter and have adjusted our production levels accordingly. Our fourth quarter sales guidance considers similar market sell-through as seen in the third quarter. Additionally, the fourth quarter is the seasonally lightest period of shipments for decking, railing, and accessories, and we expect that our channel partners will manage their year-end inventory to lower levels than in the prior year. Looking ahead, Trex is moving forward with strategies to design to capture an increasing share of the conversion from wood to composite decking. In addition to including our popular SunComfort heat mitigating technology and new decking colors to be introduced in 2026, we have new product launches planned for next year that will include features designed to expand our market penetration.

We support this increased level of activity and continue to strengthen the advanced consumer awareness of the benefits of Trex decking and railing. We expect that in future periods, our SG&A spending will return to pre-COVID levels of approximately 18% of net sales. Also, we expect the mixed impact associated with another year of double-digit growth in railing and additional depreciation related to the expansion of our Arkansas facility to reduce 2026 gross margin by approximately 250 basis points. Two-thirds of the 250 basis point impact is related to depreciation, with the remainder related to mix. In summary, while this year’s sales are coming in below our initial expectations of mid-single-digit growth, 2025 to date has been a year of significant accomplishment for Trex despite market headwinds. I’m confident that our strategy for long-term growth positions us to realize significant gains as R&R spending recovers.

Demonstrating this confidence, our board of directors has authorized a $50 million share repurchase program. I’m pleased to ask our new Senior Vice President and CFO to handle the third quarter financial review. Prith Gandhi only came on board a month ago, but he’s already making a positive difference at Trex. Prith?

Prith Gandhi, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Trex Company: Thank you, Brian, and good evening, everyone. I’m pleased to deliver my first financial review as Chief Financial Officer of Trex. I know many of you already and look forward to reconnecting and getting to know the Trex investors and other analysts who cover Trex. With that, I’ll now review our third quarter 2025 and year-to-date results. Unless otherwise stated, all comparisons are on a year-over-year basis compared to the third quarter and first nine months of fiscal 2024. In the third quarter, net sales were $285 million, an increase of 22% compared to $234 million in 2024, driven by growth across product range, which was led by strength in railing, as well as the lack of channel inventory destocking that we experienced in Q3 of last year.

Gross profit was $115 million, a 23.9% increase from $93 million, and gross margin was 40.5%, a 60 basis point expansion from 39.9% in the prior year. This increase is primarily the result of lower labor costs and production efficiencies from our continuous improvement programs. Our level loading program, which Trex has previously discussed, delivered a positive impact in Q3. Our strategic investments in the third quarter included one-time startup costs related to the Arkansas facility of $1.4 million and one-time railing conversion costs of $0.3 million. Excluding these items, adjusted gross profit was $117 million. Selling general and administrative expenses were $45 million, or 15.8% of net sales, compared to $39 million, or 16.6% of net sales in the prior year.

This increase is primarily related to higher spending on branding and IT as we continue to advance on our marketing strategy and new product innovation, two elements essential to our success as the category leader in composite decking and railing. In the third quarter, one-time expenses related to digital transformation activities and the startup of the Arkansas facility were approximately $2.4 million. Excluding these one-time expenses, SG&A expenses were $43 million, or 15% of net sales. Net income was $52 million in the third quarter, or $0.48 per diluted share, an increase of 27.7% from $41 million, or $0.37 per diluted share. Excluding the previously mentioned one-time charges incurred in the third quarter, adjusted net income was $55 million, or $0.51 per diluted share.

Adjusted EBITDA was $90 million, up 33% compared to $68 million in the prior year, led by sales growth across our product lines, expanded gross profit margin, and stable year-on-year SG&A expense. From a year-to-date perspective, net sales for the first nine months of 2025 totaled $1 billion, a 3% increase compared to $984 million in the first nine months of 2024. Net income was $188 million, or $1.75 per diluted share. A 13% decrease compared to $217 million, or $1.99 per diluted share. Excluding one-time charges incurred year-to-date, adjusted net income was $198 million, or $1.84 per diluted share, and adjusted EBITDA was $314 million. Year-to-date operating cash flow was $293 million compared to $152 million in 2024. The increase was primarily due to the timing of working capital changes related to our level loading and channel inventory strategy.

We anticipate ending the year with inventory levels at approximately the same level as the end of year 2024. Given our continued strong cash flow generation, we will look to repurchase up to $50 million in Trex shares through the end of 2025, depending on equity market conditions. We have invested $188 million in capital expenditure year-to-date, primarily related to the building out of the Arkansas facility. Now, turning to our guidance for the remainder of 2025. As noted in today’s earnings release, we now expect several factors to impact fourth quarter sales, bringing them well below our original expectations. As Brian mentioned, we expect consumer demand to remain muted in the fourth quarter, which is also the seasonally slowest time of the year. In addition, we expect our pro channel partners to lower their inventories through the end of the year.

Due to these factors, we are revising our full year net sales and adjusted EBITDA margin guidance ranges. We now expect full year net sales to range from $1.15-$1.16 billion, approximately flat with our reported sales in 2024. We also expect our full year adjusted EBITDA margin to range from 28%-28.5%. This net sales guidance implies a Q4 sales range from $140-$150 million. The implied low double-digit Q4 adjusted EBITDA margin considers the impact on gross margin of reduced capacity utilization rates and continued spending on branding and marketing to accelerate future growth. Full year guidance for our other financial metrics include. SG&A expenses to be approximately 16.5%-17% of net sales on an unadjusted basis, interest expense less than $2 million, and depreciation in the range of $60-$65 million for the full year. We are projecting an effective tax rate of approximately 26%.

And capital expenditures are projected to be approximately $210-$220 million for the full year as we continue the development of the Arkansas campus. The change is related to the timing of cash flows related to the completion of the projects. With that, I will now turn the call back to Brian for his closing remarks. Brian.

Bryan Fairbanks, President and Chief Executive Officer, Trex Company: Thanks, Prith. Our business landscape is changing. Recent merger and acquisition activity in both the pro channel and the home centers has increased the importance of brand recognition and product differentiation in capturing end market demand. As the market leader with the largest network of contractors, dealers, distributors, and home centers, Trex is best positioned and fully committed to gaining the greatest share of the industry’s long-term growth opportunities. Operator, I’d now like to open the call to questions.

Conference Operator: We will now begin the question and answer session. To ask a question, you may press star, then one, on your touch-tone phone. If you are using a speakerphone, please pick up your handset before pressing the keys. If at any time your question has been addressed or if you would like to withdraw your question, please press star, then two. We ask that you limit yourself to one question and one follow-up. At this time, we will pause momentarily to assemble our roster. The first question today comes from Ryan Merkel with William Blair. Please go ahead.

Ryan Merkel, Analyst, William Blair: Hey, everyone. Thanks for the question. Bryan, I want to start off with a sell-through. What was it in the third quarter? I know you said the fourth quarter, you’re assuming the same. But also, what was the surprise in the quarter? Where was the slowdown? Was it the pro channel? Was it retail? Just any more color there? And also on cadence, it sounded like it slowed after July.

Bryan Fairbanks, President and Chief Executive Officer, Trex Company: Yeah. On a year-to-date basis, we saw a low single-digit sell-through. As we had our last earnings call, we did see that accelerate June, July, giving us some confidence that that was going to continue as the year went on. Come August and September, we did not see that. Did not see that go on. And it wasn’t channel dependent. It was really across all of the channels. Now we expect on a full year basis from a sell-through perspective to be low single-digit. On the year, while revenue will be flat with the prior year, we do expect to see some inventory come out of the channel, which will support that growth.

Ryan Merkel, Analyst, William Blair: Okay. Got it. And then could you just clarify why now that you’re increasing the marketing spend and the SG&A? Is it the soft markets? Is it new products? Is it rising competition? And I just want to clarify if you’re guiding SG&A to 18% of sales in 2026. It sounds like you are, but just want to clarify.

Bryan Fairbanks, President and Chief Executive Officer, Trex Company: Yeah. We are guiding to 18%. And we feel that the marketing is extremely important, especially in a softer market, to make sure that we are getting the Trex name in front of anybody who may be building a deck. We are also seeing more competitive spending from others out there in the marketplace. So backing away from that in a weaker market, we don’t feel is the right thing to do. We’ve got some great messaging out there. We are starting to see improvements with that early indicator side of things. We just need a little bit better consumer confidence around that and a better feeling around R&R model. And I think we’ll start seeing some very attractive growth rates again.

Ryan Merkel, Analyst, William Blair: All right. Thanks for the caller. Pass it on.

Bryan Fairbanks, President and Chief Executive Officer, Trex Company: Thanks, Brian.

Conference Operator: The next question comes from Colin Baron with Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead.

Colin Baron, Analyst, Deutsche Bank: Good evening. Thank you for taking my questions. I guess just given the lower inventory in the channel in the fourth quarter and the weaker trends that you’re seeing, any kind of handle you can give around how you’re thinking about early 2026 and the load-in ahead of decking season for next year, just given the softer demand that you guys are seeing as we exit this year?

Bryan Fairbanks, President and Chief Executive Officer, Trex Company: I expect that we will see a robust early buy. I don’t worry as much about early buy per se. It’s about getting that product staged for when the season turns on. I’m more concerned about the overall growth for the year. We’ve got our normal programs put together, and we will get product staged out in the marketplace. We haven’t laid out those targets as of yet. We’ll give more detail in the end of the year call on that. But I expect the program to be similar to what we’ve seen in prior years.

Colin Baron, Analyst, Deutsche Bank: Okay. That’s helpful, Colin. And then on the SG&A spend, how quickly does that SG&A spend usually turn into sort of an acceleration in demand in periods past where you might have seen a little bit of a softer R&R and you ramp up that spending? I guess just curious as to how quickly you think you can see a return on that money.

Bryan Fairbanks, President and Chief Executive Officer, Trex Company: I think the best way to look at it is from an overall industry perspective. We’ve got a repair and remodel industry that’s going to be down low single digits. We expect our sell-through is going to perform up low single digits. So that spending that we’re doing from a branding perspective, as well as the industry that we’re in, the conversion opportunity against wood, does give us a better opportunity for payoff with that additional spending. And I mentioned to the last question that came up, we are seeing a more competitive market environment from a spending perspective related to others that are out there advertising. We need to make sure that Trex name is in front of buyers as they’re looking to make that decision. It’s more than just about having the product everywhere that consumer is going to be buying.

We want to make sure as they’re walking in the door to make the purchase or they’re sitting with their contractor, they’ve already made that Trex decision.

Colin Baron, Analyst, Deutsche Bank: All right. Thank you very much.

Bryan Fairbanks, President and Chief Executive Officer, Trex Company: Thanks.

Conference Operator: The next question comes from Susan McClary with Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.

Susan McClary, Analyst, Goldman Sachs: Thank you. My first question is on the pricing side. Bryan, you had talked about realizing some low single-digit pricing in the past. I guess given the environment that we’re in, are you still expecting that to come through? Or can you talk a bit about price cost and how that is coming together?

Bryan Fairbanks, President and Chief Executive Officer, Trex Company: We did take some pricing coming out of the second quarter. We also talked about not really realizing much of that pricing during the third quarter. We did have people buy ahead, and we went ahead and shipped that, of course, during the quarter itself. We saw a little bit come through in September. And then, of course, with lower revenue in the fourth quarter, you don’t see too much impact for that.

Susan McClary, Analyst, Goldman Sachs: Right. Okay. And then maybe turning back to brand, you obviously have a very well-established brand and something that is recognized by a lot of consumers. As you think about spending on the marketing and helping to drive that recognition, are there things that you’re changing in your approach to your ad and marketing spend? And how are you able to leverage some of the investments you’ve made in the last couple of years around digital and data gathering to further that and make sure that that spend is really effective?

Bryan Fairbanks, President and Chief Executive Officer, Trex Company: Yeah. Jody Lee, who is our Senior Vice President of Marketing, joined us, I guess, about five, six months ago at this point. And we’re already starting to see the benefits of some of the changes that she’s making from a messaging perspective, how we’re getting in front of those consumers. I expect as she gets a full year under her belt and we move into next year, that we even have more engaging programs related to that marketing message. So I’m pretty excited about the things that are on the plate as we move forward.

Susan McClary, Analyst, Goldman Sachs: Okay. Thank you. Good luck with the quarter.

Bryan Fairbanks, President and Chief Executive Officer, Trex Company: Thanks.

Conference Operator: The next question comes from Rafe Jadrosich with Bank of America. Please go ahead.

Rafe Jadrosich, Analyst, Bank of America: Hi, thanks for taking my question. Bryan, how do you feel about the conversion rate of wood to composite and your market share trend within the category today versus where it’s been historically or maybe year-to-date versus where it’s been historically?

Bryan Fairbanks, President and Chief Executive Officer, Trex Company: Yeah. Last quarter, we reported that through the end of 2024, there was 170 basis points of conversion from wood to composite. I don’t have new data since that time frame. We do have pieces of data that come in from the channel itself. And what we are seeing is that there is continued conversion that’s out there. I wouldn’t say it’s probably fine enough that I could put a basis point of conversion on it. But the data would indicate that consumers are still trending towards those composite products. Our strategy with our enhanced basics, which is really that wood fighter at about 2X the price of wood, and then our enhanced naturals product, roughly 3X the price of wood, giving that consumer the opportunity to see they can afford a Trex deck and be able to move up to a higher end aesthetic with that enhanced naturals.

That continues to be an effective strategy.

Rafe Jadrosich, Analyst, Bank of America: Okay. And then just with the conversion continuing, just kind of understanding the step-up in SG&A, you mentioned the release that you’re going back to sort of the pre-COVID level. I guess to go back to 2017 to get to around 18% of SG&A as a percent of sales, your sales base is two times higher than that point. Is this sort of this level of spend like a catch-up where there’s been underinvestment and this is an opportunity? Or do we think about it as this is sort of just an appropriate longer-term run rate?

Bryan Fairbanks, President and Chief Executive Officer, Trex Company: Well, recall, during COVID itself, we pulled way back on the marketing side of things. So we’re back to a more normalized type marketing. It’s really in reaction to two things. First, the weaker market condition. We believe that. Sales, excuse me, that marketing in conjunction with our sales effort can drive better opportunity for us in the marketplace. And longer term, as we move forward and we start getting back to the growth levels that Trex is normally used to, I expect that we’ll be able to see some leverage opportunities within SG&A again.

Rafe Jadrosich, Analyst, Bank of America: Okay. Okay. Great. Thank you.

Bryan Fairbanks, President and Chief Executive Officer, Trex Company: Thanks, Rafe.

Conference Operator: The next question comes from Keith Hughes with Truist. Please go ahead.

Rafe Jadrosich, Analyst, Bank of America: Thank you. Question. The sell-through is lower than you anticipated, as you said, but this seems like a pretty drastic reduction in production and ordering from your customers. Are they anticipating business to continue to deteriorate going into next year?

Bryan Fairbanks, President and Chief Executive Officer, Trex Company: We had an original expectation that we were going to be 5%-7%, and instead we expect that to be in low single-digit levels, so that difference is really what’s coming out. We’re seeing the largest piece of that, of course, in the fourth quarter of this year. I’m not expecting anybody to be building any inventories as we move into the end of the year. I think the other piece that’s important to note is the channel has gotten better in managing inventory. We have a lot of different SKUs between the different decking colors that we have, the different railing products that we have, and our channel partners continue to get more efficient each year in the way they’re running their supply chains, so that’s why we expect the inventory to be down.

As we move out into next year, we’re coming off of three years of down repair and remodel. More and more pent-up demand out there, and at some point, that’s going to break free, and we’ll be ready to take advantage of it.

Rafe Jadrosich, Analyst, Bank of America: If sell-through stays where it is, will you go back to some normal production in the first quarter?

Bryan Fairbanks, President and Chief Executive Officer, Trex Company: We will finish our inventory roughly in line with where we were last year, and we’ll keep that. We’ll be a little bit of an increase in the new year. If we see stronger market conditions, we’ll be able to bring on a couple more lines without any issue.

Rafe Jadrosich, Analyst, Bank of America: Okay. Thank you.

Conference Operator: The next question comes from Ketan Mamtora with BMO Capital. Please go ahead.

Colin Baron, Analyst, Deutsche Bank: Thank you. Bryan, can you just remind us some of the incremental costs that you had in the first half of 2025 related to enhanced retooling? Should we expect that to sort of reverse in 2026? And how much can you quantify that for us?

Bryan Fairbanks, President and Chief Executive Officer, Trex Company: We didn’t call that specifically out as a one-timer. It was under $5 million in the first half, the majority of it in the first quarter, and then a much lesser piece of it in the second quarter. But no, I would not expect that to repeat next year.

Colin Baron, Analyst, Deutsche Bank: Understood. Got it. And then any sort of early read into how CapEx would shake out for 2026, given that you are sort of almost at the end of the big Arkansas plant?

Bryan Fairbanks, President and Chief Executive Officer, Trex Company: Yeah. We still have $40-$50 million of Little Rock to go. That’ll be in next year. And the other side of our CapEx spending will be down considerably as well. So we’ve talked about maintenance of business CapEx being in the 5%-6%, but probably even the next few years because we have a new plant that it could be a little bit lower than that. So we’re probably looking around the $100 million range or so.

Colin Baron, Analyst, Deutsche Bank: That’s all in, Bryan?

Bryan Fairbanks, President and Chief Executive Officer, Trex Company: Yeah. Yeah.

Colin Baron, Analyst, Deutsche Bank: Perfect. Okay. Got it. Thanks very much, Kudla.

Bryan Fairbanks, President and Chief Executive Officer, Trex Company: Thanks.

Conference Operator: The next question comes from Tim Wjos with Baird. Please go ahead.

Amy Fernandez, Senior Vice President, Chief Legal Officer, and Secretary, Trex Company: Hey, guys. Good afternoon. Bryan, on the gross margin headwinds in 2026, the 250 basis points that you’re talking about with decking and just railing mix, are there any offsets to that that we should think about? Because I guess if we have a couple hundred basis points next year of margin compression, it does seem like it might be hard to actually generate gross profit growth or EBITDA growth. Just trying to kind of understand what might offset that mix headwind.

Bryan Fairbanks, President and Chief Executive Officer, Trex Company: We’ve got some other costs that are coming into the business as well. Of course, you’ve got higher labor costs, just general inflation that comes in. Our continuous improvement program should be offsetting that side of the business right now. We’re calling this out specifically because this depreciation is coming in. We don’t have an offset for it next year. The following year, as we get into production in Little Rock and we lay out the most optimum footprint for our production levels, then I think there is opportunity to be able to offset that. And then from a mix perspective, this is related to tariffs on many of the new products that we have coming in. Whether it’s aluminum or steel that’s being sourced here in the U.S., the prices of those products have gone up because of tariffs, or whether we’re bringing it in from overseas.

So we are not able to capture all of the revenue to offset those tariffs and the general market conditions at this point.

Amy Fernandez, Senior Vice President, Chief Legal Officer, and Secretary, Trex Company: Okay. Okay. Understood, and then I guess as you think about the sell-through numbers this year, just to clarify, the low single digits, does that include or exclude the double-digit growth that you’re seeing in railing?

Bryan Fairbanks, President and Chief Executive Officer, Trex Company: Includes.

Amy Fernandez, Senior Vice President, Chief Legal Officer, and Secretary, Trex Company: Okay. Okay. Sounds good. Thank you, guys.

Bryan Fairbanks, President and Chief Executive Officer, Trex Company: Thanks.

Conference Operator: The next question comes from Michael Rehaut with J.P. Morgan. Please go ahead.

Amy Fernandez, Senior Vice President, Chief Legal Officer, and Secretary, Trex Company: Thanks. Good afternoon, everyone. Just wanted to see if I could get a little more granular, if possible, on the 3Q, 4Q, the 3Q miss versus guidance, and 4Q reduction. In total, it’s about $65 million plus or minus a little, $15 million in the third quarter. Just trying to get a sense when you think about that. How much is just due to the softer market backdrop relative to your prior expectations versus the reduction in inventory? And also just trying to understand maybe by price point, there was some differentiation in the market earlier in the year in terms of low-end versus mid to high-end, and if you’re seeing any differentiation in the second half.

Bryan Fairbanks, President and Chief Executive Officer, Trex Company: Sure. Through the numbers that we already provided, we had assumed prior guidance, 5%-7% growth, same thing from a sell-through perspective. Now we’re talking about a low single-digit type growth. So let’s call roughly half of it a little bit more is coming from market weakness side of it. And the remainder is coming out of inventory within the channel. As it relates to the various product lines, if we look back the past couple of years, excluding 2025, we did see meaningful differences at the high end of the market versus the entry-level products. That has not been nearly as impactful. It’s really just been kind of broad-based at this point. Where there isn’t any one level of the product line that’s overperforming or underperforming. We’ve just seen it kind of across the entire decking and railing side of the business.

Now, we did mention with the new products, railing is growing nicely. But again, from a decking perspective, there’s really no major difference from a growth perspective, the high versus the low.

Amy Fernandez, Senior Vice President, Chief Legal Officer, and Secretary, Trex Company: Okay. No, I appreciate that, Bryan. Also, I just wanted maybe a little clarification, if possible, around the 18% SG&A number for next year. If that’s kind of a percentage that you would peg to any top-line number, or is it more of a comment on an absolute basis where you’re trying to peg a certain dollar number? And that 18% could be higher or lower based on how revenues actually come out?

Bryan Fairbanks, President and Chief Executive Officer, Trex Company: With the planning that we’re working on at this point, we believe 18% is the number we’ll be. Obviously, that could change if we see a considerably stronger market or a considerably weaker market on it. But it’s the best planning number we have for everybody right now.

Amy Fernandez, Senior Vice President, Chief Legal Officer, and Secretary, Trex Company: Okay. So maybe asked another way. Would that 18% reflect kind of like a low single-digit type top-line growth, which if you’re thinking maybe the market’s flat, and composite outperforms a little bit, is that a reasonable way to think about it?

Bryan Fairbanks, President and Chief Executive Officer, Trex Company: We’ll provide further guidance on revenue during the end-of-the-year call.

Amy Fernandez, Senior Vice President, Chief Legal Officer, and Secretary, Trex Company: All right. Thank you.

Bryan Fairbanks, President and Chief Executive Officer, Trex Company: Thanks.

Conference Operator: The next question comes from John Lovallo with UBS. Please go ahead.

Hey, guys. Thank you for taking my questions. The first one is any thoughts on your largest competitor gaining some business with Boise Cascade and if this at all changes your strategy with Boise?

Bryan Fairbanks, President and Chief Executive Officer, Trex Company: No, it does not change our strategy with Boise. I think what you’ve seen with various distributor announcements just recently here is just normal end-of-the-year type movements, as you see products coming into a location that really hadn’t been carrying much in the way of decking. And then in other cases, locations that are moving over to Trex, which are moving out of competitive product along the way. So I wouldn’t read too much into that.

Conference Operator: Okay. And then I know it’s tough to tell in a short period of time, but do you get any sense that you’re seeing share shifts among you and your largest competitors, keeping the wood side out of the equation just on the composite side?

Bryan Fairbanks, President and Chief Executive Officer, Trex Company: Our sales team, we’re very active in the market, tracking what our contractors are doing, understanding overall market growth of where we are. We’re not seeing indications of that at the ground level.

Conference Operator: Okay. Thank you, guys.

Bryan Fairbanks, President and Chief Executive Officer, Trex Company: Thanks.

Conference Operator: The next question comes from Trey Grooms with Stephens. Please go ahead.

Hey, good afternoon. So in kind of touching again, I know this has been discussed a lot, but the 18% SG&A next year, I think. Branding costs have historically run about 6% or so of sales, if memory serves me. And so is that roughly the way we should be thinking about branding spend as part of the kind of 18% SG&A mix? Or would it be higher here as you ramp?

Bryan Fairbanks, President and Chief Executive Officer, Trex Company: Absolutely. This year, you’ve seen a higher branding spend. Next year, we expect that will be elevated again in a weak market background. We haven’t provided a specific percentage on that. We can do that in the next call, but assume a good portion of that’s related to marketing.

Conference Operator: Yep. Okay. And then I think it was touched on just a bit here, but any way that you could maybe help us think about how this increase in branding or this ramp could translate into or maybe drive more demand, how quickly this spend could kind of translate into better dollars for you guys, revenue for you guys?

Bryan Fairbanks, President and Chief Executive Officer, Trex Company: Yeah. What we have seen is with the increased branding this year, we’ve seen the purchase indicators increase. We’ve not seen that turn into the level of sales growth that we’re satisfied with. But it definitely shows there’s consumer interest in doing decking projects in the marketplace. So we do need a little bit of an economic tailwind to start breaking some of these projects free. But backing off on marketing and waiting for those tailwinds to start is not going to be an effective strategy, especially when our competitors are out with very, very heavy marketing spend.

Conference Operator: Yep. Understood. Thanks, Bryan, for taking my questions. Best of luck.

Bryan Fairbanks, President and Chief Executive Officer, Trex Company: Thanks, Trey.

Conference Operator: The next question comes from Jeffrey Stevenson with Loop Capital. Please go ahead.

Hi. Thanks for taking my questions today. So, Bryan, given the step-down you’re expecting in 2026 CapEx expectation, could that give you some flexibility to increase other capital priorities such as share repurchases given the higher expected free cash flow generation next year?

Bryan Fairbanks, President and Chief Executive Officer, Trex Company: I think you’re already seeing the first example of that, where we do expect that we will be in the market depending upon market conditions to buy back $50 million of shares. We have been somewhat muted in being into the marketplace because there has been a lot of capital going into Little Rock, but over the longer term, we will be generating a significant amount of free cash flow, and if you look at the years when we generated that cash flow, in a lot of cases, we used it for buyback. So there’ll still be opportunities for that. So this is the first indicator of usage of that higher free cash flow.

Conference Operator: Got it. No, that makes sense. And I was wondering if you could give additional color on the recent expanded partnership with Weeks Forest Products, which helps further strengthen your relationship with Snavely. Can you talk about how this strengthens your Midwest distribution footprint? And could there be additional opportunities to further expand partnerships with key distribution partners after the Boise announcement caught some investors by surprise?

Bryan Fairbanks, President and Chief Executive Officer, Trex Company: Yeah. We’re really pleased with the furthering of our relationship with Weeks. Minneapolis marketplace is a significant marketplace, and we felt that they’d be a great addition. Beyond that, I’m not going to get into any of the other commercial agreements we may be working on.

Conference Operator: Okay. Thank you.

Bryan Fairbanks, President and Chief Executive Officer, Trex Company: Thanks.

Conference Operator: The next question comes from Trevor Allinson with Wolfe Research. Please go ahead.

Amy Fernandez, Senior Vice President, Chief Legal Officer, and Secretary, Trex Company: Hi. Good evening. Thank you for taking my questions. First question related to your long-term EBITDA margin targets with the increased expectation for SG&A spending. You’ve called the new level of SG&A spend as being normalized. So should we think of the long-term EBITDA margin target still being around 34%, or did the prior margin target assume a little less competition in the market and thus a higher SG&A spend reduces your long-term target from that 34% level?

Bryan Fairbanks, President and Chief Executive Officer, Trex Company: That 34% assumed a much stronger underlying repair and remodel marketplace at a mid-single-digit type level. We haven’t seen that in three years. Hopefully, we’ll see it next year, but I would say the indicators aren’t great. I’d be happy if we start to see growth back in repair and remodel as we get into next year. So it’d be a real challenge to be able to achieve that level by original target dates. But we do need to see that underlying economic strength to be able to get to those kind of numbers.

Amy Fernandez, Senior Vice President, Chief Legal Officer, and Secretary, Trex Company: Okay. Makes sense. And then second question on year-end inventory. I think we’ve been at or somewhat below normalized inventory exiting the year the last few years. Can you talk about where you’re expecting days of inventory in the channel to be exiting 4Q this year versus more normalized levels? Thanks.

Bryan Fairbanks, President and Chief Executive Officer, Trex Company: Yeah. We’ve talked in the past about weeks supply. Generally, end of the year tends to be a little bit higher just because you’ve got lower demand in that six- to eight-week type range, and then during the busy part of the season, you’re going to be right around that four-week range or so, so we think that six- to eight-week probably is on the lower end of that part of it. I’m not all that worried about it from an inventory perspective because it is a slower part of the season, and I expect our distributors as well as dealer partners will take advantage of the early buy opportunities that are presented.

Amy Fernandez, Senior Vice President, Chief Legal Officer, and Secretary, Trex Company: Thank you for all the color and good luck moving forward.

Bryan Fairbanks, President and Chief Executive Officer, Trex Company: Thanks.

Conference Operator: The next question comes from Anthony Pettinari with Citi. Please go ahead.

Good evening. You mentioned the mix in railing and Arkansas depreciation reducing the gross margin next year by 250 basis points. I was just wondering if there’s any kind of cadence for that in terms of the year-over-year headwind. Is it weighted pretty evenly over the four quarters of the year? Could it potentially kind of dissipate into the end of the year? Or is there any kind of cadence we should keep in mind when we model it out?

Bryan Fairbanks, President and Chief Executive Officer, Trex Company: I mentioned a two-thirds, one-third flip. The one-third is going to be pretty consistent by quarter. The two-thirds of it will build over the course of the years as we check out all of the lines that depreciation will turn on, so you’ll start to see that late in Q1, building in Q2, and then into Q3.

Conference Operator: Okay. Okay. That’s helpful. And then I’m just curious. I mean, when you talk to channel partners and contractors, is there any common theme in terms of the consumer, the end buyer, in terms of what maybe has created this sort of extra caution? Are there increased concerns around job loss or tariffs? Obviously, you have a lot of partners and channels, but I’m just curious kind of qualitatively if there’s any theme that kind of came up as you saw this just increased caution from buyers.

Bryan Fairbanks, President and Chief Executive Officer, Trex Company: Yeah. I do hear all of those, more from just a general economic perspective of people stepping back, making sure that they have job security. When I talk to our contractors, the biggest thing that we hear back from their perspective, it is a more competitive marketplace. And when they’re out and they have job opportunities, generally speaking, that consumer, where a couple of years ago, they might be getting one or two contractors coming in, now in many cases, they’ve got four coming in to give them bids. So people are really looking for the best deal that they can get on the projects. And I’m sure not all of them are coming to fruition if they don’t get to the numbers they’re expecting.

Conference Operator: Okay. That’s very helpful, Carl. I’ll turn it over.

Bryan Fairbanks, President and Chief Executive Officer, Trex Company: Thanks.

Conference Operator: The next question comes from Phil Ng with Jefferies. Please go ahead.

Amy Fernandez, Senior Vice President, Chief Legal Officer, and Secretary, Trex Company: Hey, Bryan. In the past, you guys would give us an early look on EBITDA margins for next year. If I kind of take your framework you’ve given us for this year, call it 28.5% EBITDA margins, you called out a few headwinds, 80 basis points on mix, on the gross margin side, 30 rounding basis points, give or take, on SG&A. Is that the right way to think of it, just taking the 25 and those would be the drags? Is there any offset we should be mindful of? I mean, certainly, volume leverage will be impactful, and you’re obviously taking some downtime in the fourth quarter to work down inventory. But help us think through what EBITDA margins could look like next year, at least directionally.

Bryan Fairbanks, President and Chief Executive Officer, Trex Company: Yeah. I’d love to give you some additional detail on that, and you’re right. Normally, we would provide some commentary on that during our third-quarter call. Given the difficulty in understanding where the consumer is, what things are going to look like for next year, we’re not going to try to do that in this call. We will definitely give more detail as we get into the end-of-the-year call.

Amy Fernandez, Senior Vice President, Chief Legal Officer, and Secretary, Trex Company: I mean, I guess let me ask differently. Do you have any offsets that we should be mindful of on the continuous improvement side that should kick in that you guys are looking to tackle, or?

Bryan Fairbanks, President and Chief Executive Officer, Trex Company: I did mention earlier that we will have continuous improvement activities that will be underway. Those activities will offset other inflation, other costs that are coming into the business. We’re calling out this 250 now because we don’t have this 250 covered.

Amy Fernandez, Senior Vice President, Chief Legal Officer, and Secretary, Trex Company: That’s helpful. Any early read in terms of the placement with the channel, whether it’s on the pro wholesale side or retail? I know there’s been some consolidation on the distribution side in the West Coast. That might be an opportunity for you guys. You had one of your bigger retail channel partners. But just any early look front? And you talked about competition being more elevated on the market side. Anything on the rebate side we should be mindful as well?

Bryan Fairbanks, President and Chief Executive Officer, Trex Company: Yeah. There’s always going to be commercial discussions underway with all of the larger partners that are out there. We do expect that there will be some additional pressures from an incentive perspective in the marketplace as well, especially with some of the larger providers of sales opportunity.

Amy Fernandez, Senior Vice President, Chief Legal Officer, and Secretary, Trex Company: Okay. Appreciate it, Colin. Thank you so much.

Bryan Fairbanks, President and Chief Executive Officer, Trex Company: Thanks, Phil.

Conference Operator: The next question comes from Kurt Yinger with D.A. Davidson. Please go ahead.

Amy Fernandez, Senior Vice President, Chief Legal Officer, and Secretary, Trex Company: Great. Thanks. Just one question for me. On the railing side, I believe there were certain retail shelf space ads this year that have been beneficial. How do you think about the ability to sustain this year’s momentum into 2026 as you potentially lap that? And is the pro channel performance pretty comparable as we look between the two?

Bryan Fairbanks, President and Chief Executive Officer, Trex Company: What we tend to see with new product launches and shelf space wins, whether it’s in the pro channel or within retail, that it continues to build over the first couple of years, so we’ve been very pleased with what we’ve seen with the new products this year. We expect that we will see considerable opportunity as we take advantage of that space on the shelf, as well as working with contractors to be able to convert them away from competitive products, so we’re confident that we’ve got the right strategy as we drive forward on railing.

Amy Fernandez, Senior Vice President, Chief Legal Officer, and Secretary, Trex Company: Okay. Appreciate the color. Thank you.

Bryan Fairbanks, President and Chief Executive Officer, Trex Company: Thanks.

Conference Operator: The next question comes from Matthew Bouley with Barclays. Please go ahead.

Amy Fernandez, Senior Vice President, Chief Legal Officer, and Secretary, Trex Company: Good evening, everyone. Thank you for taking the questions. On the comments that your competitors are out with heavy marketing spend, I’m wondering if that has had an impact on market share at the dealer or contractor level already? Or is it not yet, but you’re seeing the marketing out there and you want to prevent the share shifts? Perhaps your retail partners are asking for more marketing spend. Just kind of help us understand how that lay of the land is playing out. Thank you.

Bryan Fairbanks, President and Chief Executive Officer, Trex Company: As I mentioned to an earlier question, we’ve not seen those share shifts. We do keep a close look from a ground-level perspective. But we also recognize that it is a very competitive marketplace. We’ve got aggressive competitors in the market. They’re spending a lot on marketing, and dialing back when we’re starting to see those consumers come through and see the purchase indicators improving with it, we think, would be the wrong way to go.

Amy Fernandez, Senior Vice President, Chief Legal Officer, and Secretary, Trex Company: Okay. Understood. And then secondly, I think you said earlier that you’re looking for inventory levels to be—I think you said flat year-over-year to end 2025, and correct me if I’m wrong. But is there a scenario where you would look to take down inventory levels depending on how the market is shaping up? Thank you.

Bryan Fairbanks, President and Chief Executive Officer, Trex Company: We saw a really significant shift in the market from a downward perspective. I don’t see indicators of that at this point. But again, I don’t see anything that would cause that to be the case right now.

Amy Fernandez, Senior Vice President, Chief Legal Officer, and Secretary, Trex Company: Okay. Thanks, Bryan. Good luck, guys.

Bryan Fairbanks, President and Chief Executive Officer, Trex Company: Thanks, Matt.

Conference Operator: This concludes our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Bryan Fairbanks for any closing remarks.

Bryan Fairbanks, President and Chief Executive Officer, Trex Company: Thanks for participating in today’s call. We look forward to seeing you at upcoming conferences and meetings. Good evening.

Conference Operator: The conference is now concluded. Thank you for attending today’s presentation. You may now disconnect.

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