Earnings call transcript: U.S. Bancorp Q3 2025 beats expectations, stock rises

U.S. Bancorp reported its third-quarter earnings for 2025, surpassing analysts’ expectations with an earnings per share (EPS) of $1.22 against a forecast of $1.12, marking an 8.93% surprise. The company’s revenue reached $7.3 billion, exceeding the anticipated $7.16 billion. Following the announcement, U.S. Bancorp’s stock rose by 1.45% to $47.25 in pre-market trading, reflecting investor optimism about the bank’s performance and future prospects. According to InvestingPro data, the bank has demonstrated strong momentum with a 25.5% price return over the past six months, while maintaining a conservative valuation with a P/E ratio of 11.3x.

Key Takeaways

• U.S. Bancorp’s EPS increased by 18.4% year-over-year.
• Revenue hit a record $7.3 billion, surpassing forecasts.
• The stock price rose 1.45% in pre-market trading.
• Net interest margin improved to 2.75%.
• The bank is expanding its stablecoin services.

Company Performance

U.S. Bancorp demonstrated strong performance in the third quarter of 2025, with significant growth in both earnings and revenue compared to the previous year. The bank’s strategic focus on innovative products and operational efficiency has contributed to its improved financial results. The introduction of the BankSmartly product and expansion into stablecoin services have positioned the bank for future growth.

Financial Highlights

• Revenue: $7.3 billion, an increase from the previous quarter
• Earnings per share: $1.22, up 18.4% year-over-year
• Return on average assets: 1.17%
• Net interest margin: 2.75%
• Total average deposits: $512 billion, a 1.8% increase from the previous quarter

Earnings vs. Forecast

U.S. Bancorp’s third-quarter EPS of $1.22 exceeded the forecast of $1.12, resulting in an 8.93% surprise. The revenue of $7.3 billion also surpassed expectations, with a 2.37% surprise. This performance is consistent with the bank’s recent trend of surpassing market expectations, reflecting its robust business model and strategic initiatives.

Market Reaction

Following the earnings announcement, U.S. Bancorp’s stock price increased by 1.45% to $47.25 in pre-market trading. This rise reflects positive investor sentiment, driven by the bank’s strong financial performance and optimistic future outlook. The stock remains within its 52-week range, with a high of $53.98 and a low of $35.18.

Outlook & Guidance

Looking ahead, U.S. Bancorp expects net interest income to remain stable in the fourth quarter. The bank anticipates achieving a 3% net interest margin by 2027, with positive operating leverage of over 200 basis points expected in 2025. The bank is also focusing on organic growth strategies and expanding its product offerings. InvestingPro data shows that 9 analysts have recently revised their earnings estimates upward for the upcoming period, suggesting growing confidence in the bank’s execution strategy. The company’s Fair Value assessment indicates it is currently trading near its intrinsic value, based on comprehensive analysis available in the Pro Research Report, which offers detailed insights for over 1,400 US stocks.

Executive Commentary

CEO Gunjan Kedia emphasized the bank’s focus on organic growth, stating, "We are generating organic growth through distinctive interconnected solutions." CFO John Stern highlighted the bank’s path to expanding its net interest margin, expressing confidence in reaching a 3% level by 2027.

Risks and Challenges

• Potential impact of interest rate changes on net interest margin.
• Regulatory challenges in expanding stablecoin services.
• Market competition in the payments sector.
• Economic uncertainties affecting consumer and business lending.
• Dependence on legislative support for sustainable finance initiatives.

Q&A

During the earnings call, analysts inquired about U.S. Bancorp’s stablecoin strategy and its potential revenue opportunities. The bank also addressed questions regarding the dynamics of its credit card portfolio and the impact of First Brands exposure on commercial non-performing loans (NPLs). Additionally, the bank provided insights into the drivers of net interest margin expansion.

Full transcript - U.S. Bancorp (USB) Q3 2025:

Operator/Moderator: Welcome to the U. S. Bancorp Third Quarter twenty twenty five Earnings Conference Call. Following review of the results, there will be a formal question and answer session. This call will be recorded and available for replay beginning today at approximately eleven a.

M. Central Time. I’ll now turn the conference over to George Anderson, Director of Investor Relations for U. S. Bancorp.

George Anderson, Director of Investor Relations, U.S. Bancorp: Thank you, Jean Louis, and good morning, everyone. Joining me today in Minneapolis is our Chief Executive Officer, Gunjan Kedia and Vice Chair and CFO, John Stern. In a moment, Gunjin and John will reference a slide presentation together with their prepared remarks. A copy of the presentation, our press release and all supplemental consolidated schedules are available on our website at ir.usbank.com. Please note that any forward looking statements made during today’s call are subject to risks and uncertainties that can cause our actual results to differ materially from our current expectations.

These factors are described on Page two of today’s earnings presentation, in our press release and in reports filed with the SEC. Following our prepared remarks, Gunjan and John will be happy to answer your questions. I will now turn the call over to Gunjan.

Gunjan Kedia, Chief Executive Officer, U.S. Bancorp: Thank you, George, and good morning, everyone. If I could please turn your attention to slide three. In the third quarter, we reported earnings per share of $1.22 an increase of 18.4% year over year. Our net revenue of $7,300,000,000 was a quarterly record reflecting both strong momentum across our fee businesses and improved spread income. This quarter we generated a very meaningful five thirty basis points of positive operating leverage, a return on average assets of 1.17% and a net interest margin of 2.75%.

John will provide more details on our financial performance in his opening remarks. Importantly, we are making strong progress against each of our three strategic priorities for our company. We are generating organic growth through distinctive interconnected solutions. We are maintaining our expense discipline through sustainable process automation and we are executing on our payments transformation with greater focus and strategic investments. And as we manage the bank for the long run through both positive and uncertain times, our highly diversified balance sheet and foundational risk management capabilities delivered improved credit quality and stronger capital and liquidity levels this quarter.

Moving to Slide four, fee income diversification is a key source of strength for the company. On the left, you will see that fee revenue grew at 9.5% on a year over year basis, reflecting broad based strength across our payments, institutional and consumer businesses. Notably interest rate movements this quarter supported a meaningful acceleration in select capital markets and mortgage revenues. On the right, we highlight five key businesses that have demonstrated strong year over year growth and that we believe present a favorable growth outlook. Collectively these businesses represented approximately two thirds of our total fee revenue this quarter.

Turning to slide five, we spotlight one additional business, Impact Finance. With the Union Bank acquisition, we bolstered our platform bringing improved tax credit syndication capabilities, new talent and increased access to the California market. Currently reported within the other revenue, Impact Finance has grown at a 17% CAGR from 2021 to 2024 and is an important mission driven capability that is core to our fee income portfolio. Over the next several years, we anticipate additional growth from a pull forward of activity tied to some recent executive orders and expect revenue trends across our environmental finance, affordable housing and community finance solutions to remain robust. In addition, the business also supports a net tax benefit to the company, which we believe will continue to be a meaningful driver of bottom line EPS growth.

Slide six showcases our growing consumer franchise and long term deposit strategy. Our deposit base is highly diversified across clients, geographies and products providing strength and stability through the cycle. We are actively working to increase our share of consumer deposits with interconnected products like BankSmartly, branch and client center expansions, partnerships and enhanced marketing and analytical capabilities. Consumer deposits now represent over 52% of total average deposits, up nearly two points from the 2023. Moving to Slide seven.

Our expense discipline over the last two years and execution on four signature productivity programs has resulted in improved organic growth and greater operational efficiencies. As you can see on the left, the outcomes of our efforts have been quite successful as we have seen steady improvement to both the efficiency ratio and positive operating leverage as adjusted. Turning to slide eight. Our payments transformation remains a key strategic priority for our company. As the charts on the left show, we have seen steady improvement and more consistent year over year fee growth over the last several quarters across both our traditional card issuing and merchant processing businesses.

We are looking forward to providing a deeper dive into our payments transformation and strategy at an upcoming industry conference in the fall. Let me now turn the call over to John.

John Stern, Vice Chair and CFO, U.S. Bancorp: Thank you, Gunjan, and good morning, everyone. This is a very strong quarter for us, highlighted by core underlying business momentum and accelerating growth as we made meaningful progress toward our medium term financial targets. If you turn to Slide nine, I’ll start with highlights for the quarter followed by a discussion of third quarter earnings trends. As Gunjan mentioned, we reported earnings per common share of 1.22 and achieved record net revenue of $7,300,000,000 this quarter. Revenue growth versus prior periods benefited from improved spread income driven by enhancements we’ve made to our portfolio mix as well as broad based fee growth as we deepen client relationships across the franchise.

Elevated deposit flows at the end of the quarter in support of more robust client activity and seasonality in our Corporate Trust business resulted in ending assets of $695,000,000,000 As expected, nearly all key credit quality metrics including non performing assets and net charge offs improved both sequentially and on a year over year basis. As of September 30, our tangible book value per share increased 12.7% on a year over year basis. Slide 10 provides key performance metrics. As the slide illustrates, each of our key profitability and efficiency ratios improved this quarter, highlighted by a return on average assets of 1.17% and a return on tangible common equity of 18.6%. Over the last two years, we have increased our tangible common equity approximately 30% while continuing to deliver a high teens ROTCE on steadily improving earnings growth.

Notably, we also delivered an improved efficiency ratio of 57.2% and a net interest margin of 2.75% this quarter. Our sequential margin expansion of nine basis points was driven by fixed asset repricing, strong card and commercial loan growth, as well as strategic balance sheet actions we took in the second quarter. We continue to expect net interest margin expansion in the medium term. Slide 11 provides a balance sheet summary. Total average deposits increased 1.8% linked quarter to $512,000,000,000 as we continued to emphasize growth in relationship based deposits.

Our percentage of non interest bearing to total deposits remained stable at approximately 16%. Average loans totaled $379,000,000,000 up 0.2% from the prior quarter. Adjusting for loan sales last quarter, our underlying growth rate was one point zero percent linked quarter and 2.8% on a year over year basis. Loan yields increased to 5.97%, an eight basis point improvement linked quarter. As we continue to strategically remix our balance sheet with a greater proportion of commercial and credit card loan balances, we increased both commercial and credit card loans 9.54.3% respectively on a year over year basis.

Given the current industry focus on non depository financial institution lending, we included a slide in the appendix of our presentation to provide additional transparency on this loan category. As you will observe, this is a highly diversified portfolio with a balanced and broad composition of borrowers that is underpinned by our proven underwriting capabilities and strong collateral and structural protections. Finally, as it relates to the balance sheet, the ending balance in our investment portfolio as of September 30 was $171,000,000,000 and had an average yield of 3.26%, an eight basis point improvement sequentially driven by the strategic actions we took last quarter and fixed asset repricing. Turning to slide 12. Net interest income on a fully taxable equivalent basis totaled $4,250,000,000 an increase of 4.2% on a linked quarter basis.

Slide 13 highlights trends in noninterest income. Total noninterest income was approximately $3,080,000,000 Excluding security losses, total fee revenue increased 9.5 on a year over year basis, driven by new business momentum and broad based growth across our fee businesses. Turning to slide 14. Non interest expense totaled approximately $4,200,000,000 as we continue to prudently manage our expense base. Slide 15 highlights our improving credit quality performance despite ongoing macroeconomic uncertainty.

Our ratio of non performing assets to loans and other real estate was 0.43% at September 30, an improvement of one basis point linked quarter and six basis points year over year. This quarter, our net charge off ratio of 0.56% improved three basis points sequentially and four basis points year over year. Turning to Slide 16. As of September 30, our common equity Tier one capital as a percentage of risk weighted assets was 10.9%, a 20 basis point increase linked quarter. Including AOCI, our CET1 ratio improved to 9.2%.

At the top of slide 17, we provide a comparison of third quarter results to our previous guidance. This quarter both net interest income and fee revenues exceeded our expectations, while non interest expense was in line with previous guidance which drove meaningful positive operating leverage for the quarter. Let me now provide our forward looking guidance. In the fourth quarter, we expect net interest income on a fully taxable equivalent basis to be relatively stable to our third quarter level of $4,250,000,000 Total fee revenue is expected to be approximately $3,000,000,000 Total non interest expense is expected to increase between 11.5% sequentially. We expect to deliver positive operating leverage of 200 basis points or more on an adjusted basis.

Turning to slide 18. We are now operating within all of our medium term target ranges, one year removed from our twenty twenty four Investor Day, and remain confident in our ability to build on these results over time. Let me now hand it back to Gunjan for closing remarks.

Gunjan Kedia, Chief Executive Officer, U.S. Bancorp: Thank you, John. Third quarter results show that we are beginning to hit our stride on execution. We remain focused on delivering growth, productivity, returns and strong risk management both in favorable and uncertain economic environments. Let me just close by extending my deep gratitude to our clients and shareholders. Our results reflect the power of our strategy, the strength of our franchise and the dedication of our teams across this organization.

We appreciate your trust and your partnership. With that, we will now open the call for your questions.

Operator/Moderator: Thank you. Your first question comes from the line of John McDonald of Truist Securities. Your line is open.

John McDonald, Analyst, Truist Securities: Hi, good morning. I’ll start off with a question for John, just on the outlook. John, what are you seeing for net interest margin trend in the fourth quarter? And can you give us some puts and takes on your outlook for net interest income to be relatively flattish in the fourth quarter?

John Stern, Vice Chair and CFO, U.S. Bancorp: Sure. Good morning, John. Maybe stepping back just to the third quarter, we had a lot of favorable items this quarter that will continue to be sustainable. We had strong fixed asset repricing. We had a healthy mix favorability both on the loan side of the equation as well as on the liability side.

And of course, we had the strategic actions that we talked about last quarter that ended up being favorable as well. So looking forward, if I think about the fourth quarter, we talked about relative stability and we have the favorable items still at our being a tailwind in terms of repricing and mix. However, we have credit card favorability this quarter that is seasonal to a certain extent and that will reverse in some capacity. And so when I think about the quarter, there’s obviously some risks and there’s some opportunities. I would say that we’re biased to the upside both in terms of net interest income and net interest margin from versus our flat guidance because I just see more opportunity than I do risk.

But we’ll see how the quarter plays out, but that’s where we’re at right now.

John McDonald, Analyst, Truist Securities: Okay. And then just following up on that, looking a little further out, what are some of the drivers you have for net interest margin expansion next year in the context of maybe a few rate cuts? And do you still think that you could get towards 3% in 2027?

John Stern, Vice Chair and CFO, U.S. Bancorp: We definitely see a path of net interest margin expansion getting to that 3% level in 2027. The drivers are going to be the ones that we’ve talked about in the past. We have fixed asset repricing that is quite mechanical. We’ve talked about the $3,000,000,000 of investment portfolio and the 5,000,000,000 to $7,000,000,000 of loans that reprice. We still have mix that we have in our control in terms of leaning more into card and commercial type of loans that are helping.

And so I think of those things of having somewhere in that two to three basis points of embedded lift from a net interest margin standpoint. The third component is really going to be on the deposit side and the mix and pricing of that. And that will depend a little bit the speed in which we gain to that 3% margin is going to depend on the curve, depends on deposits competition and how we execute really on DDA and checking and all those sorts of accounts that we need to grow. So we definitely see a path for three percent in 2027, but some of those macro environments might impact the speed in which we get there.

Analyst: Okay. Thanks, John.

George Anderson, Director of Investor Relations, U.S. Bancorp: You bet.

Operator/Moderator: Your next question comes from the line of John Pancari of Evercore. Your line is open. Good morning. Good morning.

John Pancari, Analyst, Evercore: On the positive operating leverage came in particularly solid this quarter, and you’re clearly confident in the 200 basis points plus expectation for ’25. Could you give us just a little more color in terms of your confidence in that front or in that pace as you look into 2026, just given some of the investments that you’re looking at, but also conversely some of the momentum you’re clearly seeing on the revenue side. Could we see positive operating leverage exceed that 200 plus range as we look out?

John Stern, Vice Chair and CFO, U.S. Bancorp: So thanks, John. In terms of our guidance, of course, we’ve been signaling over 200 basis points of operating leverage this year, and we’ve been achieving that. Obviously, we had a lot of strength this quarter, and we continue to expect that in the fourth quarter. As we think about ’26, we haven’t provided formal guidance there. We’re going to in the middle of our planning process of course.

But I think you can kind of see the key drivers here. You can think about net interest income having a good growth trajectory as we think about all the different items I just talked about. The fees, we continue to expect that mid single digit type of growth. And our expenses, we’ve been able to manage quite prudently. So we expect to achieve meaningful positive operating leverage next year.

Gunjan Kedia, Chief Executive Officer, U.S. Bancorp: And John, I’ll just add, this is Gunjan. We are very confident in our expense management disciplines because our four signature programs have runway still to go and the revenue outlook is positive. It does depend on the fee mix. As you know, we are very focused on improving our fee mix and that tends to attract more expense we are very glad to do. So that’s the range.

But the business model lends itself to meaningful positive operating leverage for next year. It’s just a matter of level.

Analyst: Okay. Got it. Got it. And then on

John Pancari, Analyst, Evercore: the fee side, also some clear momentum there, some pretty good upside this quarter. And as you mentioned in your prepared remarks, you’re certainly seeing some of the momentum follow through in terms of your key drivers and in your payments space as well. I mean, guess on the payment side, can you give us a little more color in terms of the drivers of the growth that you’re seeing there and your confidence in that mid single digit expectation? And is there anything from the standpoint of customer acquisition or the benefits of the investments that you’ve made that you’d call out here as being key drivers to what seems to be a more sustainable consistency around your fee performance as of late?

Gunjan Kedia, Chief Executive Officer, U.S. Bancorp: Thank you. We are feeling very confident in the broad based strength of the fees. And let me just share two things, and then I’ll get to the specifics on payments. We have made a lot of progress over the last twelve months on creating an operating model that creates interconnectivity between our product sets. So the fees are lifting each other.

Our relationship teams, our sales and marketing efforts are multiproduct, the product design is multiproduct, And all of that is leading to a measurable lift in effectiveness of marketing dollars. So that gives us some real shift in the trajectory here. What we track internally on payments, for example, is new card acquisitions that we can measure today that have grown nicely from past trends and it takes twelve to eighteen months for that revenue to catch up. We are also seeing material strength in sold but not installed business on businesses like CPS and merchants. So all of that leads us to have confidence in our mid single digit fee guidance across the whole portfolio and payments overall with upside over time as we gain momentum.

John Pancari, Analyst, Evercore: And that upside that would bode well for twenty twenty six I assume there Gunjan above that mid single digit level possibly?

John Stern, Vice Chair and CFO, U.S. Bancorp: Well, we’ve talked about mid single digit in the payment complex and that’s what our objective is with upside. So I think that’s where our starting point is. We’ll have more detail obviously as we think about that in the next call, but mid single digit is a good place to start to the plus.

Gunjan Kedia, Chief Executive Officer, U.S. Bancorp: I do also want to just reiterate that there is a lot of curiosity around payments and in the fall we’re going to bring a deep dive on the merchant business and the card issuing businesses. So I look forward to more dialogue there.

John Pancari, Analyst, Evercore: Got it. Okay. Thank you. Appreciate it.

Operator/Moderator: Your next question comes from the line of Ken Usdin of Autonomous Research. Your line is open.

Ken Usdin, Analyst, Autonomous Research: Hi, thanks. Good morning. I just wanted to follow-up on the payments point and just ask you to dive in a little bit more. 3% year over year is not far from mid single digit, but that corporate piece is still comping negative and credit and debit is still three ish.

Betsy Graseck, Analyst, Morgan Stanley: So I just want to kind of

Ken Usdin, Analyst, Autonomous Research: if you can kind of give us some of the moving parts of the drivers now and across the lines, where do you expect those to inflect?

John Stern, Vice Chair and CFO, U.S. Bancorp: Sure. So your question regarding on the corporate payment side of the house, that has seen negative year over year prints the last couple of quarters. The drivers of that are really on the government side of the equation as well as corporate T and E. So you could think of government spend is about 15% of this line item. Corporate T and

Michael Mayo, Analyst, Wells Fargo: E is kind of about the

John Stern, Vice Chair and CFO, U.S. Bancorp: same thing and those have had some headwinds in those particular areas. Gunjan mentioned uninstalled revenue and strong pipelines that is certainly the case and we expect to see some online versions of that coming on into the fourth quarter. And so we do expect improving trends in our year on year outlook on corporate payments. And merchants has had some strong quarter given success in our key verticals that we’ve been talking about and as well as some of the embedded finance and tech led type of strategies. And card as Gunjan mentioned the marketing and account growth we see is very encouraging.

So those are kind of the items that I talk about from a payment standpoint.

Gunjan Kedia, Chief Executive Officer, U.S. Bancorp: I can add just a line on the debit card where the growth is really about growing your entire consumer franchise. And we are very laser focused on that and see a lot of upside over time with interconnected products between card and the consumer bank. So as we see momentum in the we showed you some data on consumer deposits that was a very favorable set of trends over the last two years. And that creates momentum in the total number of clients and usage of the bank accounts and the debit card revenue line. So we should expect that to come.

But the real payment strategy is focused on the card issuing and the merchant businesses that are the vast majority of our payments businesses. And of course, CPS a very attractive business and we are expecting those trends to reverse in due course here.

Ken Usdin, Analyst, Autonomous Research: Great. One follow-up just related to consumer. It’s great to see the card loss rate come back down now at 3.73% in the third quarter. Are we starting to see that maturation of the portfolio? And kind of where do you expect to see that card loss rate go going forward, assuming a reasonably stable economy from here?

Yes.

John Stern, Vice Chair and CFO, U.S. Bancorp: Our view on credit right now is favorable. We see strong spend trends and credit trends, particularly vast majority of our book is seven twenty or greater. The spend levels have been very good. The loss rates as you mentioned have come down meaningfully this quarter. There’s some seasonality there, but for certain our 2025 loss rate on card will be less than our loss rate in 2024.

So there’s some good momentum there. As we get into 2026, we’ll likely update you there. But it’s we don’t see anything that gives us any concern in this area. And so it’s been a strong result.

Analyst: Thanks John.

Operator/Moderator: Your next question comes from the line of Ebrahim Poonawala of Bank of America. Your line is open. Hey, good morning. Good morning.

George Anderson, Director of Investor Relations, U.S. Bancorp0: I just wanted to as we think about NII margin, think deposit growth and pricing matters. I think, Gunjan, in your opening remarks, you talked about the bank smartly, partnerships, branches, like, all of those from an outside looking in, it’s just very hard to figure out whether whether these are sticky deposits, low lower cost deposits. If you don’t mind spending some time on just the client acquisition that’s happening through these channels and how we should think about either the magnitude of growth they can drive as we look out the next couple of years and the cost structure of these deposits? Thanks.

Gunjan Kedia, Chief Executive Officer, U.S. Bancorp: Let me start and then John will add on. So the consumer clients and the consumer deposits as you pointed out are both sticky and favorably priced according to the total portfolio. And we think about our deposits in three big categories. The consumer deposits, which includes our wealth franchise and our wholesale deposits that you’re very familiar with. And then we have a large trust business that is quite a unique property.

Our ability to drive fee business growth is very helped by the balance sheet presence we have on the wholesale and the trust side. And the pricing there is quite dynamic. So the consumer and our focus on improving the mix of consumer deposits is all about creating stickiness and better funding costs. These clients also then feed enormous growth in other businesses. So we very steadily see a client that might start with us on a core checking account or a core savings account, then deepens with credit card, deepens with wealth and deepens even on the small business side.

So those are the strategies across all of the levers that you point out. And I’ll add to digital acquisitions with marketing which we have really stepped up in terms of our investments and our capabilities there as well. So that’s sort of the story on deposits and the consumer franchise. And John you’ll add some pricing.

John Stern, Vice Chair and CFO, U.S. Bancorp: Yes. A couple of things I would just mention is we feel very good about where the deposit portfolio shaped out this quarter. We saw very strong growth in both consumer as well as on the commercial side of the equation. Our desire as Gunjan just to reiterate what she said, our growth is related to on deposits is to grow where it matters and where it’s conducive to supporting fee growth. And so when we think about Smartly, you mentioned that product Ebrahim for us, we are highly encouraged because it is a product that has three times as much multi products attached to that client when open up this product.

It that in and of itself we know that has more stickiness to it. It brings in a new type of client into our into the bank, which is from a credit card standpoint about half of the cards that open up are new relationships that we have to the bank, which is very encouraging. And so and then on the commercial side of the house, we saw a lot of growth on the deposit side across all sorts of different areas, including treasury management and the investments we’ve been making in that business over the last couple of years really starting to come to fruition. We saw a lot of growth in investment services this quarter. There’s just a lot of business activity, and so we gained a lot of deposits as there’s just a lot of investments moving around and so we house those deposits while that is occurring.

So all this activity that occurs is really beneficial to us. And for that reason, we saw benefits to our fee categories as you saw this quarter. And it’s really all interconnected which is what the point of what Gunjan was saying earlier in the call.

George Anderson, Director of Investor Relations, U.S. Bancorp0: Got it. That’s helpful. And I guess maybe going back to the margin discussion, John. So you’ve talked about it was pretty good expansion this quarter. You’ve talked about the 3%.

I’m just wondering as we think through the journey from $2.75 to $3 is there a point where there’s a pretty material inflection outside of like the back book repricing everything that you talked about? I’m just wondering is there a chance you could hit 3% by this time next year by the fourth quarter? It just very steady state or are there going to be big step ups in the progress towards that 3% NIM?

John Stern, Vice Chair and CFO, U.S. Bancorp: Sure. So I won’t repeat everything I said on the drivers. But to your point on the speed in which you get there, I’ll point out that the curve from a SOFR versus five year treasury is still quite inverted. And so a speed up, if you will, of margin could be the Fed is programmatically cutting. The curve is more upward sloping on that part of the curve and that could really help boost the speed in which net interest margin improves.

The other sides on the asset side are going be a little bit more mechanical and more we are embedded in how we move forward. But it’s really going to be that the macro that’s going to drive the speed in which we get there.

George Anderson, Director of Investor Relations, U.S. Bancorp0: Got it. Thank you.

Operator/Moderator: Your next question comes from the line of Michael Mayo of Wells Fargo. Your line is open.

Michael Mayo, Analyst, Wells Fargo: Hi. I don’t know if we put this in the category of the Loch Ness Monster, Bermuda Triangle and the contents of NDFI, but I’m sure many appreciate your detailing of NDFI. But that’s not really the way you run the business by NDFI. So I guess it’s just connecting regulatory reporting with your business lines. But since you did disclose that, can you just give us a little bit more color?

You say that credit quality is higher on NDFI than your core C and I portfolio, which is interesting. NDFI is 12% of the total loan book. Like where would that have been, say, five or ten years ago? And any loans that you’re not pursuing? I mean the key to good credit quality is choosing to say no a lot.

Thank you.

John Stern, Vice Chair and CFO, U.S. Bancorp: Sure, Mike. Thanks. I think the slide is in there because there’s just been a lot of interest in the industry. You’re right. I mean, there’s a it is a very broad and just set of businesses within there.

Obviously, as you know, mortgage warehouse lending and subscription lines and auto ABS are very different items. We just wanted to show that sort of categories that we have. I think the point that what we’re trying to make is that our risk disciplines and how we think about the diversification of

Operator/Moderator: this

John Stern, Vice Chair and CFO, U.S. Bancorp: book is something that we spend a lot of time on. And it’s not just the category for the category’s sake. It’s just the way we operate in terms of our credit culture. So we think about the multiple ways that there’s repayment. We think about how fees are over collateralized.

We think about the data that is needed to look through on some of these structures and things like that and the risk limits embedded in there. And ultimately, we know these clients a lot over many years. Many of these clients we’ve been servicing in many different products over a vast number of years. And in terms of the growth that we’ve seen, I don’t have a number for you in terms of five or ten year, but it obviously has grown pretty substantially over the last several years. And but we’re very comfortable with it because we again, we know the clients.

Gunjan Kedia, Chief Executive Officer, U.S. Bancorp: And we’d add that these are broad relationships on the fee side in addition to the loan book, and that’s just client selection there.

Michael Mayo, Analyst, Wells Fargo: And my other question is, where would you say you choose to say no a little bit more often than not? In other words, you could have faster loan growth, any bank could. Are there any areas where you say, hey, let’s pay more attention to this?

John Stern, Vice Chair and CFO, U.S. Bancorp: Sure. We have that conversation all the time on our credit committees and things of that variety. We’re talking about line items that and single counterparty limits and things of that variety in a number of different things. We’re careful about certain areas that are have that when we look through have more leverage and things of that variety. We want to make sure we understand it.

It’s all on the credit profile and the client selection is very important. We’re servicing a number of the different large players here that are very well known to the market and we feel very comfortable about the book.

Michael Mayo, Analyst, Wells Fargo: All right. Thank you.

Operator/Moderator: Your next question comes from the line of Saul Martinez of HSBC. Your line is open.

Analyst: Hey, good morning. Just wanted to quickly follow-up on the fourth quarter net interest income outlook being stable. I get that there is a bias to the upside. But John, you did mention that there are some upside sources and there are some risks. And I think you mentioned credit card favorability in 3Q and some other risks.

I’m not sure I understand, but could you just elaborate a little bit on what the card favorability dynamics are and what the other downside risks are? And what are you assuming there for rates in the fourth quarter? And how are you thinking about the rate backdrop in 2026? Are you working with the forward curve, which I think has five cuts in it, which presumably would be good for you. But just any color on how you’re thinking about the rate backdrop next year?

And also, is it what are you assuming for the fourth quarter? And how is it influencing your guidance at all?

John Stern, Vice Chair and CFO, U.S. Bancorp: Sure. Let me go with the assumptions first. I think that’s a good place to start on your questions. From a curve and from a rate perspective, we do include two cuts this year. We also have two more cuts in 2026.

So maybe we’re a little bit late relative to the market in terms of cuts, but that obviously always shifts. We do have longer term yields. I’ll just pick on the ten year treasury as an example, more in the four point two five percent to 4.5% range for the 2026 year. And so as I think about the fourth quarter to get to the more specifics of what you were talking about, we have a lot of upside in terms of the things that have been working for us in the past in terms of fixed asset repricing, the mix is obviously going to be very favorable for us. When I think about the things that are going the other way for the fourth quarter, we did have meaningful pickup in credit card yield this quarter.

There was fees that we picked up as well as just strength in that area. Some of that is seasonality. We expect that to reverse in the fourth quarter just given the trends that we are observing. But all in all, as we put together these things, there’s obviously a lot of moving parts, especially in the fourth quarter. But I’ll reiterate that we see more opportunity than we do risk as it’s embedded into our call.

Gunjan Kedia, Chief Executive Officer, U.S. Bancorp: And so I’ll add that the fourth quarter credit card dynamics are very seasonal and expected. It’s the holiday season dynamics. So we expect that. There’s nothing unique about what we are seeing in that book just at this time. It’s just the holiday season changes the dynamics there a little bit.

Analyst: Okay. Okay. That’s helpful. And then maybe the surprise positively spread, I guess, by the size of the sustainable finance business and the growth you’ve seen there, and it is a pretty big part of the other income line. I just wanted to make sure I understood.

You are expecting continued growth as you see a pull forward of some of this activity and concurrent levels? And if that is the case, I guess, what is it I guess, what does it mean for the other income line? Because that has been moving higher, I guess. I know it could jump around quarter to quarter, but is that should we be thinking that line is going to move higher as well as this business continues to grow?

John Stern, Vice Chair and CFO, U.S. Bancorp: Yes. Our view is that the impact this impact finance the impact finance line item will improve and increase. We’ve had as we saw on the slide a 17% increase. We expect this to be a high single digit type of business over the medium term. There’s not I mean there may be some pull forward given some of the legislative moves and things of that variety.

But I we see the momentum in the business. They’ve been gaining market share. It’s an area that the team has had a lot of focus on. And you look about renewable energy tax credits and you look at low income housing and things of that variety. These are areas that we and new market tax credits, we’re number one in terms of that market share.

And so we’ve been building our capabilities here and we’ve been the additional tailwinds have been the some of the administrative or the legislative areas that have helped us here as well.

Gunjan Kedia, Chief Executive Officer, U.S. Bancorp: And Sol, you’re right. It’s quite a large business today. It started out in the other category and we’ve had some questions from all of you on sort of what really is there. So we wanted to highlight a part of the business that’s actually very core to what we do. It’s ingrained in day to day sort of running of the businesses, but it has become quite sizable also because of Union Bank.

Union Bank acquisition for us is about three years old now and we are just beginning to realize the revenue benefits of some of that client base and the presence in California. And this business is a good example of sort of what a good strong presence in California can do to certain line items. So very attractive business for us, a long, long standing business, which just has become quite large now.

John Stern, Vice Chair and CFO, U.S. Bancorp: Great. That’s very helpful. Thank you.

Operator/Moderator: Your next question comes from the line of Gerard Cassidy of RBC Capital Markets. Your line is open.

George Anderson, Director of Investor Relations, U.S. Bancorp1: Good morning, Gunjan. Good morning, John. Good morning.

George Anderson, Director of Investor Relations, U.S. Bancorp2: Can you guys share with us obviously there’s a lot of talk about Stablecoin and the impact it may have on the payments business. And can you share with us how you’re getting out in front of it and what you’re doing to prepare yourselves for the Stablecoin activity eventually coming into the payments business?

Gunjan Kedia, Chief Executive Officer, U.S. Bancorp: Yes. Good morning, Gerard. So we are working on stablecoins in two very distinct areas. The first is around the capital markets and investments part of it, where the business model is very clear and it’s very favorable to us. So this is custody and safekeeping of the collateral underlying stablecoins or custody and safekeeping of cryptocurrency assets.

These are products that we introduced sometime back have reintroduced with the shift in the supervisory environment and are quite confident in our ability to just provide those products. The other side is stablecoins as a payment rail, where the client demand is more muted, although there are a lot of discussions. And there our efforts are twofold. One is to just be ready to onboard and off board a stable coin into the banking system, and we are working on that in conjunction with the industry consortiums. And then the second is just being ready to provide stablecoin services as a payment vehicle should that market take off within our client base.

So we expect to pilot some stablecoin transactions yet this year with some partnerships in the market. I’m also we’re also very aware that we have a unique franchise in Elon where we provide credit card payment services to 1,200 banks, smaller banks on a white label service. So this is also a question that we’ll get from our smaller bank base. So we are just studying that market and being ready for it if it takes off. But the real momentum from revenues and a clear business case and an economic model is on the custody and investment side.

So it’s a multi dimensional field that’s moving very fast. We’ve just announced some organizational changes to stay current with the industry as it evolves and more to come there.

George Anderson, Director of Investor Relations, U.S. Bancorp2: Very good. Thank you. And then can you remind us when you look out over the next twelve twenty four months as your CET1 ratio with the AOCI included continues to grow, Your views of returning capital to shareholders for years U. S. Bancorp consistently returned 75% to 80% of earnings.

Can you kind of refresh our memories on what you think the long term return will be to shareholders?

John Stern, Vice Chair and CFO, U.S. Bancorp: Sure. Gerard, it’s John here. So we’re obviously continuing to build our capital base. I would consider that we’re in the final lap, if you will, of building out our capital. We were at 8.4 a couple of years ago.

You’ll recall we’re at 10.9 now. Gave you the number with included in AOCI and where we’re attempting to get into. Obviously, we are looking to increase that amount. It may not be this quarter, but as we look into 2026, we certainly have feel that the glide path will be there to increase our pace and get to that 75% area that we that had mentioned on the slide that you’ll see there. And we’re very much committed to that.

And so that along with the things we have to balance like things like loan growth and things like that will take it quarter by quarter, but that just gives you kind of high level how we’re thinking about it.

George Anderson, Director of Investor Relations, U.S. Bancorp2: Great. Thank you. And Gunjan, thank you for bringing Mark to BAB for the details about payments. We appreciate it. Thank you.

Gunjan Kedia, Chief Executive Officer, U.S. Bancorp: Thank you, Gerard. Mark and Kotny. So Kotny will present on the card issuing business which is a big part of our business and Mark will join you for MPS. So look forward to that.

John Pancari, Analyst, Evercore: Thank you.

Operator/Moderator: Your next question comes from the line of Erika Najarian of UBS. Your line is open.

George Anderson, Director of Investor Relations, U.S. Bancorp3: Hi. Just a few cleanup questions, if I may. Just first, I wanted to clarify, John, you said the fixed asset repricing is two to three basis points of embedded lift. I just wanted to clarify if that embedded lift is a per quarter statement. And also, as we think about fixed asset repricing, is that more tethered to the belly of the curve or the ten year range that you mentioned 4.25%, 4.5%?

John Stern, Vice Chair and CFO, U.S. Bancorp: Sure. So, yes, just to be clear, let me and thank you for allowing me to clarify. When I had said the two to three basis points, I was referring to mix as well as fixed asset repricing that we have on a quarterly basis. So think of that as an embedded quarterly type of improvement that should be happening. As we know every quarter there can be movements in balance sheet that can alter net interest margin and we don’t always manage the interest margin as an output.

But directionally obviously we want that to improve and things of that variety. And then in terms of the mix or excuse me the repricing and where we focus on, It’s more the belly of the curve is probably more appropriate. The five year treasury I think is always a good proxy to look at and obviously spreads where those are at whether it’s mortgage spreads or credit spreads just in general. So that’s those are the items that I look at.

George Anderson, Director of Investor Relations, U.S. Bancorp3: Thank you. And my second question is for Gunjan. The stock is clearly reacting favorably today. You had a nice beat to consensus really on the revenue side and it’s really the revenue side that’s driving the positive operating leverage this quarter. As you think forward, how are you balancing some of the embedded momentum that you have been talking about on this call that you’re going to continue to talk about in Boston, you know, in a few weeks, you know, versus what seems to be, you know, a lot of questions and, you know, pressure on larger management teams in terms of questions on scale and having a relatively short inorganic growth window under this current administration?

Gunjan Kedia, Chief Executive Officer, U.S. Bancorp: Erika, good morning and thank you for the question. When I stepped into my role now six months back, we had very clearly articulated three priorities, and they were connected to each other. The first more urgent from a sequencing and timing standpoint was expenses. Our opportunity was very real there. We had finished embedding Union Bank.

We had finished all of the work we were doing to restore our capital positions. And it was appropriate to bring the efficiency ratio back to what the business model requires it to be, which is mid to high 50s. Having done that, we exceeded what we wanted to do from the efficiency ratio and positive operating leverage standpoint and released a fair amount of investment to invest in organic growth. And you’re beginning to see that show up now. And you’ll see payments show up sequentially a little bit behind that just because the sales cycles and the revenue models take time.

That’s why we talk about leading indicators. So it’s less a matter of balancing between them, but one fueling the other with the ultimate goal being EPS growth that is also accompanied by very high attractive returns. And you’ll know John pointed out that we have increased our we have maintained and increased our return on tangible capital very specifically. So going forward, you’ll see the growth side of the equation become more present in our strategies. First with all of the fee businesses, our evolution to a more attractive asset side with more leaning in on C and I and credit loans and on deposits more attractive balance sheet leaning in on the consumer side.

So you see NII growth and you see fee growth and then you’re going to start seeing the strategies for payments. So we are feeling very good about the momentum organically over time and certainly see very real opportunity and quite a lot of runway on organic growth for us.

George Anderson, Director of Investor Relations, U.S. Bancorp3: And just to clarify, Gunjan, given how you answered that question, USP’s focus and obviously, like John said, you’re sort of in the final phase of rebuilding capital. Your focus is inward and not outward in terms of bank acquisitions. Just want to be clear that that’s the message that you’re giving us.

Gunjan Kedia, Chief Executive Officer, U.S. Bancorp: Our focus is very much on organic growth.

George Anderson, Director of Investor Relations, U.S. Bancorp3: Thank you.

Operator/Moderator: Your next question comes from the line of Betsy Graseck of Morgan Stanley. Your line is open.

Betsy Graseck, Analyst, Morgan Stanley: Hi, good morning. I just wanted to circle back to the discussion earlier on the impact financing and the implication for tax rate. Because I think you mentioned that you will be leaning into this effort that you have and that as you do lean into it, it should have some impacts on tax. Could you help us understand how much and over what kind of time frame is this? And I bring it up relative to the Slide 32 that talks about key assumptions for medium term include current tax policy, and I wasn’t sure if current tax policy meant current tax rate or the expectation for tax rate to come down as you increase Impact Finance.

John Stern, Vice Chair and CFO, U.S. Bancorp: Sure, Betsy. So I think when I think about the impact finance components from a the tax benefit that we’ve received is likely not going to change much from where we sit today. So there’s probably a three or so plus or minus point benefit to us in our tax rate that has been there for some time and will continue. The growth that we’re talking about here in the fee side is related to transferability and syndications and things of that variety where we have been very good where the tax policy changes have allowed that market to flourish with more freedom. And I think that is where we have our ability to grow and where do we get to see more fee revenues that I’ve been talking about there in terms of our assumed growth rate.

So that’s really where it’s at. And the tax rate will continue that favorability as we mentioned on the tax rate as well.

Betsy Graseck, Analyst, Morgan Stanley: Okay. So right now it’s about 3% benefit to tax rate and even with increasing this business you expect it to hover in that range?

John Stern, Vice Chair and CFO, U.S. Bancorp: I would that’s exactly right.

Betsy Graseck, Analyst, Morgan Stanley: Okay. Thank you.

Operator/Moderator: Your next question comes from the line of Chris McGrady of KBW. Your line is open.

Analyst: Great. Good morning, everybody. Looking at Slide 19,

George Anderson, Director of Investor Relations, U.S. Bancorp4: I guess eighteen, nineteen together, the building upon medium term targets comment. Several larger banks have either put out revised targets or hinted at targets this quarter. I guess my question is given that you’re more or less there, is that something that we might think is on the horizon over the near to intermediate term?

John Stern, Vice Chair and CFO, U.S. Bancorp: Thanks, Chris. I appreciate the question. Obviously, we’re pleased to be where we’re operating here in terms of where we sit in terms of our medium term targets. There’s nothing formal, but you’ll note in my prepared comments about how while we’re pleased this isn’t the end we anticipate to improve and that’s really what our focus is. So there’s no change to any of the medium term targets.

We think those are appropriate and right, but we do expect improvement of ourselves over time.

George Anderson, Director of Investor Relations, U.S. Bancorp4: Okay. And then John, if I could just push I guess what would it take for you to revisit them? Is it just staying here for a bit of time and the operating environment staying good or what would specifically need to change?

John Stern, Vice Chair and CFO, U.S. Bancorp: Yes. Think it would be those two things that you just mentioned. I mean it’s that the operating environment improves our execution exceeds even our own expectations and then those are going to be triggers that we would look to.

Gunjan Kedia, Chief Executive Officer, U.S. Bancorp: I would just add, we need to just consistently stay in the range and then start hitting the upper end of each range and then we’ll think about changing the ranges.

Operator/Moderator: Okay, great. Thank you. Your next question comes from the line of Matt O’Connor of Deutsche Bank. Your line is open.

George Anderson, Director of Investor Relations, U.S. Bancorp5: Good morning. Just a quick clarification. You talked about assuming slightly higher rates in the forward curve in 2026. If the forward curve plays out versus your rate assumptions, would that be directionally positive or negative for your net interest margin?

John Stern, Vice Chair and CFO, U.S. Bancorp: Yes. I think the as I mentioned, we have four cuts in our forecast. I think the market is a little bit wider than that. So if the forwards actually transpire, then that would be a net benefit. If I think our longer term rates are probably a little bit more higher than where the forwards are at this point.

And so we would need to see a little bit more improvement there to get additional benefit on the fixed accessory pricing. So it’s a little bit of a mix. On balance, it’s about equal, I would say.

George Anderson, Director of Investor Relations, U.S. Bancorp5: Okay. So positive on the short end, get back on the long end and when you put all together,

Analyst: they’re about the same?

John McDonald, Analyst, Truist Securities: Exactly.

Operator/Moderator: Your next question comes from the line of Vivek Juneja of JPMorgan. Your line is open.

George Anderson, Director of Investor Relations, U.S. Bancorp6: Thank you. Given that a lot of the bigger picture questions have been asked in the realm of some cleanup, John, I have a question for you. What is included in your other earning assets where the yield went up 300 basis points linked quarter with an interest income increase of $100,000,000 which is over 60% of the increase in your NII linked quarter and the yield is almost 8%. It’s higher than any other asset on the balance sheet. What drove that?

And how sustainable is that, John?

John Stern, Vice Chair and CFO, U.S. Bancorp: Sure. Thank you. So we have to look at that line item along with the short term liability line item. And so those two things have a little bit more of a have a gross up of yield. And so if I step back and what’s going on, we’ve increased our capacity and ability in the capital market space on tri party repo and our volumes have picked up quite a bit.

We do have the ability to net those balances. So the balance sheet is smaller to your point about $1,000,000,000 or so on that particular line item. And but we keep the grossed up amount on the yield. And so that differential is going to show up in those two line items. If you net those things out, there’s really no meaningful change to NII or net interest interest margin.

You just have to look at the two of those items together. You’ll note that short term borrowings dropped about $7,000,000,000 That wasn’t really repo related. That’s about again about that $1,000,000,000 Most of it was just short term borrowings that we had used the prior quarter given the asset sales that we had and we had obviously strong deposit growth. So we could just reduce that balance there.

George Anderson, Director of Investor Relations, U.S. Bancorp6: Okay. Thanks. And another one for either of you. Your C and I NPLs were up 30% linked quarter. Any color on what you’re seeing, which industry sectors, what’s the lost content like, any color on that?

John Stern, Vice Chair and CFO, U.S. Bancorp: Sure. So a couple of things. It’s obviously there are some things that can be lumpy from time to time. We do have some exposure to First Brands. It’s not material to our financials as it’s already contemplated in the reserve, but that partially explains the rise in commercial NPAs that you referenced.

George Anderson, Director of Investor Relations, U.S. Bancorp6: And have you taken any kind of a loss or provision therefore for First Brands? And in what form was that exposure to First Brands,

John Stern, Vice Chair and CFO, U.S. Bancorp: It’s just our secured borrowings that we have with them and it’s already any of the losses contemplated in our reserve already within the provision.

George Anderson, Director of Investor Relations, U.S. Bancorp6: Okay. And are there other similar structures structures like this that we should be worrying about given I would presume that the First Brand stuff showed up under your NDFI?

John Stern, Vice Chair and CFO, U.S. Bancorp: No. This is on the bank side of the equation. And no, the answer is no. There’s We see a lot of strength in the commercial side of the equation as well as on the retail side as we talked about with cards. We continue to look to see if there are things and we just are not seeing it.

George Anderson, Director of Investor Relations, U.S. Bancorp6: Gunjan, for you, what are you thinking of doing differently? Because First Brands is obviously a big surprise for the market.

Gunjan Kedia, Chief Executive Officer, U.S. Bancorp: I don’t think we’ll do anything differently. We have very, very strong underwriting capabilities. I mean, you have a large book, you have one or two issues. You have to be very appropriately reserved for it, which we are. You have to be diligent to to learn lessons from it, and we have a lot of confidence in the quality of the credit book and our underwriting process.

So I’m not

George Anderson, Director of Investor Relations, U.S. Bancorp0: sure

Gunjan Kedia, Chief Executive Officer, U.S. Bancorp: there’s there’s anything to be done differently, but be very but to remain very vigilant and rely on your strong traditional underwriting strength.

George Anderson, Director of Investor Relations, U.S. Bancorp6: Okay. Thank you both. Your

Operator/Moderator: next question comes from the line of Scott Siefers of Piper Sandler. Your line is open.

George Anderson, Director of Investor Relations, U.S. Bancorp1: Thanks guys. Good morning. I think most have been asked and answered. But maybe John, know we’ve had a little noise in the loan growth numbers this year with some of the actions you took earlier in the year. Are we kind of at a point where we could expect to start to see more visible momentum?

I know you saw some modest end of period growth in the aggregate, but just curious on your thoughts from here and what you’re seeing in terms of overall demand.

John Stern, Vice Chair and CFO, U.S. Bancorp: Scott, just to clarify, are you talking about in the period, were you talking about deposits there or loans or you’re just in general?

Michael Mayo, Analyst, Wells Fargo: No, loans. Loans. See.

John Stern, Vice Chair and CFO, U.S. Bancorp: Got it. Okay. Yes. So I think we had an opportunity in the second quarter as we had already talked about. And so I think that was something that we found attractive and acted on.

It’s obviously given us a benefit here in the third quarter. I don’t see anything in particular on the horizon for that. But obviously, you’re always looking at opportunities as they come about. And so it’s just something that we keep a pulse on. But we’re focused obviously on the organic side, growing accounts, making sure leaning into growth with our clients and that sort of thing.

Operator/Moderator: Got you.

George Anderson, Director of Investor Relations, U.S. Bancorp1: Okay. I think that actually does it. So thank you very much.

Michael Mayo, Analyst, Wells Fargo: Thank you, Scott.

Operator/Moderator: We have a follow-up question from the line of Ebrahim Poonawala of Bank of America. Your line is open. Ebrahim, perhaps your line is on mute. My apologies. There are no further questions at this time.

Mr. Anderson, I turn the call back over to you.

George Anderson, Director of Investor Relations, U.S. Bancorp: Thank you, Gianluiboui, and thank you to everyone who joined our call this morning. Please contact the Investor Relations department if you have any follow-up questions. You may now disconnect the call.

George Anderson, Director of Investor Relations, U.S. Bancorp6: This

Operator/Moderator: concludes today’s call. You may now disconnect.

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