British Columbia’s credit rating remains ’AA+’ but outlook shifts to negative at Fitch

Published 06/05/2025, 14:56
British Columbia’s credit rating remains ’AA+’ but outlook shifts to negative at Fitch

Investing.com -- On Monday, Fitch Ratings maintained the ’AA+’ long-term foreign and local currency issuer default ratings (IDRs) for the Province of British Columbia, Canada. However, the rating outlook has been revised to negative from stable. The province’s short-term foreign currency IDR was also affirmed at ’F1+’, as were its senior unsecured bonds.

The ’AA+’ IDR is a reflection of British Columbia’s standalone credit profile (SCP), which has been assessed at ’aa’. This is a decrease from the previously assessed ’aa+’ level due to large projected operating deficits and rapid debt accumulation. These factors have led to a significant worsening of debt metrics that Fitch takes into consideration when assessing financial profiles.

The negative outlook is based on the expectation that the province’s economic and fiscal performance will weaken in the future, leading to a significant structural increase in debt. Several fiscal setbacks are anticipated beginning in fiscal 2026, including tariff-induced economic and revenue weakness, the cancellation of the carbon tax, a sudden halt in population growth, and the budget impact of upcoming collective negotiations.

British Columbia’s ’Stronger’ risk profile reflects a minimal risk compared to international peers that the province’s ability to cover debt service from operating balances may weaken unexpectedly over the forecast horizon, which extends through fiscal 2029. This is due to potential lower-than-expected revenues, higher-than-expected expenditures, or an unforeseen rise in liabilities or debt-service requirements.

Fitch also affirmed the province’s short-term debt at ’F1+’. The short-term IDR of ’F1+’ corresponds with British Columbia’s long-term IDR of ’AA+’ as provided in Fitch’s local and regional governments (LRG) rating criteria.

The province’s net adjusted debt totals CAD65.4 billion in fiscal 2024. This includes direct debt of CAD73.2 billion plus CAD2.8 billion in public-private partnership and capital lease debt, offset by CAD10.6 billion. This figure consists of cash, temporary investments, and other investments on the province’s balance sheet, net of CAD1 billion in net payables.

British Columbia’s ’AA+’ IDR reflects a SCP assessed at ’aa’, lowered from ’aa+’ at the last review. The SCP combines the risk profile, at ’Stronger,’ and financial profile metrics in the ’a’ category under Fitch’s rating case scenario through fiscal 2029.

Factors that could lead to a negative rating action or downgrade include an ELB metric that exceeds 90% of GDP over the rating case scenario or persistent weakness in secondary metrics. Factors that could lead to a positive rating action or upgrade include an ELB metric that stabilizes between 80-90% of GDP, with improving operating balances supporting a payback ratio of at least 18x.

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