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Investing.com -- Fitch Ratings affirmed Abu Dhabi's Long-Term Foreign-Currency Issuer Default Rating at 'AA' with a Stable Outlook on Monday.
The rating reflects Abu Dhabi's high GDP per capita and strong fiscal and external metrics. Government debt remains among the lowest of Fitch-rated sovereigns at 17.4% of GDP at the end of 2024, well below the peer median of 48.8%. Sovereign net foreign assets are among the highest at an estimated 255% of GDP.
Fitch projects a budget surplus of 7.0% of GDP in 2025, down from 9.9% in 2024, based on an oil price forecast of $65 per barrel and production of 3.2 million barrels per day. The surplus is expected to widen to 8.0% in 2026 due to higher oil production, modest spending growth, and the start of corporate income tax receipts.
The emirate's fiscal breakeven oil price for 2025 is estimated at $42.6 per barrel, highlighting the resilience of public finances to lower oil prices. In case of price drops, authorities have various tools including fees, taxes, and adjustments to Abu Dhabi National Oil Company activities.
Non-oil growth reached 6.2% in 2024, with headline growth at 3.8%, held back by oil production that dropped modestly in line with OPEC+ quotas. Headline growth is forecast to reach 6.3% for 2025 and 4% for 2026 as OPEC+ production quotas unwind.
The rating is constrained by high dependence on hydrocarbons, a relatively weak but improving economic policy framework, and lower governance indicators compared with peers. Regional geopolitical risks remain elevated, with Fitch assuming the current military conflict between Israel and the US on one side, and Iran will remain contained.
Abu Dhabi's government-related entities (GRE) debt was estimated at 48.3% of GDP in 2023. While GRE borrowing is expected to gradually increase to fund development of the non-hydrocarbon economy, Fitch views these contingent liabilities as manageable given Abu Dhabi's fiscal buffers and profitable GREs.
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