Retail sales are the perfect example of how inflation can distort the data. Here are the results over the last 4 years:
- April 2021 - April 2025
- Total (EPA:TTEF) retail sales: +19%
- Real (inflation-adjusted) retail sales: -1%
This means that we are paying more for the same amount of goods. And this is against the backdrop of most retailers (like Walmart (NYSE:WMT) announcing price hikes in the near future.
April’s results were slightly better than expected. The street was expecting no change, but we were able to squeak out a gain of 0.1%.
Only 5 of 13 categories gained for the month. The gain in building materials (+0.8%) is probably related to the tariff issue. I was surprised to see Food services & bars (+1.2%) lead the gains, since that is considered more of a discretionary category, and not something you typically see when consumers are pulling back.
Not much resistance left for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq (QQQ). We hit a resistance level in the small caps (IWM) at $209, which was the March 25th swing high. The next resistance level comes in around $215.