Can anything shut down the Gold rally?
Japan’s dawn opened not to the clang of temple bells but to the hum of money machines. Sanae Takaichi, the incoming prime minister and Japan’s first woman to hold the post, arrived not with rhetoric but with resonance — a promise that fiscal taps may stay open long enough for the Nikkei to bathe in stimulus sunlight. The market needed no further cue: stocks leapt nearly 3% in a single bound, the Japanese yen sank toward that familiar and haunted shoreline of 150 per dollar, and traders across Tokyo screens reached for the same playbook that’s guided them for decades — when policy bends toward largesse, the path of least resistance is higher equities and a softer yen.
Markets, of course, don’t wait for inauguration ceremonies; they front-run them. And this one’s moving fast. With Takaichi’s victory, Japan seems poised to reopen at least parts of the Abenomics playbook — fiscal expansion, monetary patience, and a wink at a weaker yen. She campaigned on keeping rates low, calling last year’s BoJ tightening talk “stupid.” Even her toned-down version this year still signals resistance to hawkish drift. The immediate implication is simple: any lingering expectation of a BoJ hike on October 30 has just been slashed — from 60% odds to perhaps 25% or less. The USD/JPY sensing that the leash has slackened, could surge two big figures higher when markets open on Monday. A test of 150 USD/JPY is no longer taboo; it’s practically on the table.
It’s not just about leadership, it’s about liquidity. Takaichi, known for her pro-stimulus tilt and a fondness for what she calls “demand vitality,” is viewed as a continuity candidate for Japan’s long experiment in fiscal accommodation. Where Koizumi would have flirted with normalization, she offers comfort — a bridge between Abenomics nostalgia and Ueda’s cautious recalibration. The yen’s selloff was instantaneous, the kind that comes not from panic but from alignment — a consensus trade reaffirmed. In FX terms, this wasn’t a regime change; it was a liquidity vote of confidence.
Bond traders were quick to parse the nuance. Japanese government bond futures jumped, but yields still sat within familiar confines. It’s a subtle dance: equity bulls get their sugar high, while fixed-income desks squint toward the yield curve, watching for signs of steepening. Japan’s “Iron Lady” may not be Thatcher, but she’s certainly capable of shifting the fulcrum between fiscal heat and monetary restraint.
Gold, meanwhile, continued its defiant march — climbing above $3,900 per ounce to yet another record. If Japan’s move symbolized faith in liquidity, gold’s surge embodied the erosion of it — traders hedging not just against inflation but against a world where central banks and sovereigns alike are writing checks faster than growth can keep up. The metal’s rise isn’t about fear; it’s about saturation. Every stimulus narrative, from Tokyo to Washington, adds another drop to the overflowing basin of global liquidity. Bitcoin joined the party too, setting new highs as if to remind us that all stores of value now dance to the same tune — scarcity wrapped in speculation.
The numbers tell their own story: gold is already up more than 40% in 2025 and is barreling toward a third straight year of double-digit gains. Goldman’s team sees the metal reaching $4,000 per troy ounce by the middle of next year, built on two structural pillars: official sector demand and a Fed pivot that continues to ease financial conditions. For traders, that’s the script — gold no longer trades just as a hedge; it trades as an asset in its own right, with central banks as the ultimate whale on the bid.
Oil markets played their own rhythm. OPEC+ agreed to revive only 137,000 barrels per day of halted production — a symbolic gesture that sounded more like a whisper than a roar. These are “paper barrels,” as traders say — promised flows that seldom fully materialize. The restraint keeps crude supported, feeding the broader narrative that inflation hedges, from gold to energy, are still in vogue. In early Asia trading, U.S. equity futures ticked higher — part algorithm, part reflex — extending the global rotation toward risk on the back of a Japanese surprise.
Beyond Japan, the world continued to wobble on familiar fault lines. The U.S. government shutdown dragged on, a theatre of dysfunction now entering its second act, with unions suing to block potential mass layoffs. Payroll data never even saw daylight, leaving traders flying blind on employment while relying on the market’s internal rhythm to judge direction. Yet the absence of data is its own kind of stimulus — when uncertainty reigns, the path of least resistance is still through the liquidity door. Nvidia’s (NASDAQ:NVDA) partner Hon Hai reported an 11% bump in sales, AI still humming like a perpetual engine of growth in an otherwise data-starved world.
In Europe, the political script read differently. Macron’s unchanged cabinet lineup met immediate resistance, setting French bond traders on edge as questions over budget passage and parliamentary fractures deepened. The euro edged lower, its weakness another tributary feeding the broad greenback’s strength — a river that runs from political discord to fiscal fatigue.
As Asia opens this Monday, traders face a paradox that feels oddly familiar: Japan embracing fiscal warmth, the U.S. locked in political frost, and Europe muddling through its own stagnation. Yet through it all, one constant shines — the markets’ unwavering belief that liquidity, once unleashed, rarely retreats quietly.
Takaichi’s arrival may symbolize a historic milestone, but for traders it’s something even more tangible: the confirmation that Japan remains the world’s quiet champion of easy money. The “Iron Lady of Liquidity” hasn’t even taken office, and yet she’s already moved markets — not with words, but with expectation. And in markets, expectation is the most potent currency of all.