Bitcoin: Can It Reach $42000+?

Last week, see here, we found using the Elliott Wave Principle (EWP), Bitcoin (BTC) made an almost picture-perfect Fibonacci-based impulse pattern on several wave degrees, and we were looking for:

“a W-2/b pullback to ideally $25600-26200, … and then the next rally should target at least $28000 but preferably $29500+ for green W-3/c.”

Moreover, we communicated:

“Thus, if we see five green waves up from last week’s low develop to ideally around $30500 over the next few days to weeks, then we know those five are only W-i of W-c of W-B. For now, we take it step by step at this stage and focus on green W-2/b and 3/c. Once complete, we will monitor for the potential, albeit highly likely, green W-4 and W-5.”

Fast forward, BTC dropped to $26260 for W-2 ($25600-26200 forecasted), rallied to $30776 for green W-3 ($29500+ forecasted), and topped on June 23 at $31413 (around $30500 forecasted) for green W-5. Proving how well the EWP works to predict BTC’s price movements. See the blue box in Figure 1.

Figure 1

Daily Candlestick Chart of BTC With Several Technical Indicators

Thus, BTC presented us with the anticipated five green waves, reaching their forecasted targets. Therefore, our view from last week (see below) means the caveat can now be removed, and BTC should be getting ready for that (black) C-wave rally.

“Bigger picture-wise, the larger (black) b-wave we have been tracking –[see Figure 2 below] - has likely bottomed, and a C-wave rally to $36-48K, with $42K as the optimal middle, should be underway, with the only caveat that this is a smaller counter-trend (a-b-c) bounce staying below the April high.”

Figure 2

Monthly Candlestick Chart of BTC With Several Technical Indicators

From the EWP, we know C-waves comprise five waves. In this case, red waves W-i, ii, iii, iv, and v. Red W-i has now topped as it formed five smaller green waves, and red W-ii should now be underway, targeting ideally $27750-29000. But corrections can also move more through time than price, and we may see the blue support zone ($29K+/-500) hold. See Figure 1.

Regardless, thanks to the EWP, we know:

“after five (green) waves up, expect three waves down (red W-ii) and another five waves back up (red W-iii).”

And that is what we will be tracking over the next few days to months.