Bitcoin Outlook Improves Significantly, U.S. Dollar Strength Drives Gold Lower

Bitcoin

Bitcoin seems to be the flavor of the day, and everyone seems to be talking about it once again. The thing is that fundamentals have started to shift for Bitcoin in terms of news flow. For instance, Binance, which is the largest crypto exchange, seems to have settled its case with the US over its US assets. This is really good not only for the exchange but also for the crypto space, as the less time you spend with the SEC arguing this matter and focusing more on growth, the better.

In addition to this, retail investors who have been flushed out a number of times, mainly due to the whipsaw moves in the bitcoin price and also due to the adverse news flow over the past number of months, are feeling FOMO once again. Basically, they are looking at the news flow, such as that Fidelity has filed for the Bitcoin ETF and BlackRock (NYSE:BLK) has filed for the spot Bitcoin ETF, and then scratching their heads, wondering why they didn’t remember these fundamentals for the space, as this is not that they just decided overnight that they were going to file for the spot Bitcoin ETF.

This matter has been in play for a while, but the fact that institutions like BlackRock have filed for the ETF at a time when the SEC started to clamp down on all other players who weren’t playing by the rules is sort of a big thing to consider. Traders know that BlackRock has a great history of succeeding with the SEC, and they know that the spot Bitcoin ETF was the way forward for the institute to come together on this matter.

In addition to this, we strongly believe that this is not an incident that is more like buy the rumors and sell the news. We are highly optimistic that this particular event is actually going to help the fundamentals and the price action of Bitcoin. Thus, this may be the last time we see the price where it is trading, and it is certainly the time to bag some bargains.

In terms of technical price, the only level that matters the most is the 50K price mark, but in between that, we have small resistance levels like 30K and 40K, which, once cleared will only build more momentum for the price.

Gold

Gold prices continue to travel in one direction and one direction only, which is mainly to the downside. There are two major fundamentals that are hurting the price: the strength in the dollar index and the risk-on rally.

The question that many traders are asking themselves is whether the price is going to continue to move in this direction. The simple answer is that it is likely that we will see more moves to the downside, and it is highly possible that the price may test the level of 1,900 in the coming days.

In terms of today's price action, traders will be very much looking at Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s testimony today, and they will be searching for clues with respect to the Fed’s future monetary policy. We believe that the Fed Chairman is going to give the message simple and loud and that is that he is not going to move away from the general view, which is that the Fed is highly data dependent, inflation is way too sticky, but improvements are taking place, and there are higher chances for more rate hikes this year as that is the necessary thing to do.

But it is all about reading between the lines, which means that everything is data-dependent, and this means that if the data improves, the interest rates are likely to stay where they are. In fact, there are chances that we may begin to talk about bringing things back to normal, which may mean moving the rates lower as early as next year.