Nvidia shares pop as analysts dismiss AI bubble concerns
Bitcoin (BTC-USD) endured one of its sharpest corrections of 2025, plunging below $90,000 for the first time in seven months before staging a limited recovery to around $93,575. The world’s largest cryptocurrency is down nearly 30% from its October peak of $126,000, wiping out most of its yearly gains and sending shockwaves through the broader digital asset market. The market capitalization now stands at $1.86 trillion, with 19.95 million BTC mined, representing more than 95% of total supply.
The latest decline erased over $350 billion in crypto market value and pushed the Crypto Fear & Greed Index to 15, signaling deep panic sentiment unseen since early 2025. Despite the steep drawdown, analysts note that Bitcoin’s pattern mirrors previous late-cycle sell-offs, often followed by recovery phases leading to new highs. Since 2017, BTC has experienced over ten drops greater than 25%, with six exceeding 50%, each time preceding a powerful rebound.
According to Geoff Kendrick, Head of Digital Asset Research at Standard Chartered, the current correction is the third significant retracement since the launch of U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs in 2024, calling it a “fast, painful version” of prior cycles. He maintains a year-end rally as his base case, supported by deeply oversold on-chain indicators.
The bank’s analysis highlights that MicroStrategy’s modified NAV (mNAV) has collapsed to 1.0, signaling potential exhaustion among leveraged sellers. Similarly, data from on-chain analyst Ali Martinez show Bitcoin’s realized loss margin at -16%, below the -12% historical threshold typically associated with cyclical bottoms. In prior cases, such readings preceded rallies exceeding 40% within three months.
However, technical warning signs remain. The SuperTrend indicator on the weekly chart has flipped to a sell signal, historically leading to average drawdowns of 61%. Applying that metric would imply a possible decline toward $40,000, underscoring the fragility of sentiment despite bullish institutional forecasts.
Despite an expansion of global M2 money supply by $7 trillion since late 2024, Bitcoin has failed to fully benefit from rising liquidity. Analysts at EndGame Macro describe the current environment as one of “taxed liquidity,” where government debt issuance and 5% short-term yields absorb much of the available capital that previously flowed into risk assets.
This macro backdrop has created a scenario where Bitcoin’s non-yielding nature becomes a liability. As Treasury bills and money-market funds offer safe 5% returns, speculative capital is less willing to chase volatility in digital assets. This shift has contributed to BTC’s choppy price behavior, with rallies swiftly reversed by macro-driven selling pressure. The combination of tight liquidity, cautious positioning, and fading retail euphoria suggests Bitcoin’s recovery will depend on renewed institutional inflows rather than speculative retail demand.
Contrary to widespread fear, some institutional players and sovereign entities are viewing the decline as a strategic entry point. El Salvador, continuing its dollar-cost averaging strategy, purchased 1,098 BTC, valued near $100 million, bringing its total holdings to 7,474 BTC worth approximately $688 million. Meanwhile, MicroStrategy (NASDAQ: MSTR) expanded its position aggressively, acquiring 8,178 BTC for $835.6 million at an average of $102,200 per coin.
These purchases demonstrate that institutional conviction remains intact even amid short-term volatility. However, Bitcoin ETFs have shown weakness, with cumulative outflows of $1.38 billion over the past three weeks, marking the sharpest withdrawals since February 2025. Analysts note that retail redemption and macro hedging by hedge funds may have accelerated outflows from BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (NASDAQ: IBIT), despite strong long-term inflows earlier this year.
The downturn in Bitcoin has coincided with sharp declines across major equity benchmarks. The Nasdaq 100 fell 4% this month, echoing the cryptocurrency’s correction. Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) has tumbled nearly 9%, Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) lost 3%, and Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN) slid 3.1%, amplifying risk aversion across speculative assets.
Mike O’Rourke, chief strategist at Jones Trading, emphasized that “the correlation between Bitcoin and tech stocks is undeniable,” noting that moves in the $1.8 trillion crypto market now influence sentiment in the $32 trillion equity market. Crypto-linked equities reflect similar pain: Coinbase Global (NASDAQ: COIN) is down 23% this month, and Robinhood Markets (NASDAQ: HOOD) has plunged 21%, while MicroStrategy (MSTR), despite being up 8% intraday, remains 27% lower for November.
From a technical perspective, Bitcoin’s breakdown below $94,000 marked a critical shift in structure. The asset is now trading 5% above its 7-day low of $89,188, but 1% below the 7-day high of $94,212, trapped in a narrowing channel. The $96,000 zone—previously strong support—has turned into immediate resistance, followed by $101,000, $106,000, and $114,000–$116,000.
Analysts at Bitcoin Magazine Pro identify a potential broadening wedge formation, typically a bearish continuation pattern suggesting increased volatility. Should BTC lose the $83,000–$84,000 support band—aligned with the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement—the next significant demand zone lies at $69,000–$72,000, corresponding with the 2024 consolidation floor.
Momentum oscillators confirm bearish control. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains subdued near 38, while the MACD histogram is deeply negative, reflecting persistent selling pressure. Despite short-covering rallies, volume-weighted data show that institutional buying remains limited.
Interestingly, while BTC-USD remains range-bound, altcoins are showing relative strength. Ethereum (ETH-USD) is up 5.4% to $3,156, Solana (SOL-USD) trades near $141, rising 6.8%, and Ripple (XRP-USD) jumped 2.7% to $2.23. The Bitcoin Dominance Index has slipped below 49%, signaling that capital rotation into altcoins is occurring even as the broader market remains cautious.
Still, analysts warn that such altcoin resilience during Bitcoin weakness often precedes renewed downturns. Historical data from 2019–2022 show that when BTC dominance drops sharply during corrections, the broader crypto market typically follows with higher volatility and deeper liquidations.
Institutional data reveal growing bifurcation between ETF investors and direct holders. While spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $1.38 billion in redemptions, on-chain accumulation addresses have increased their net holdings by 42,000 BTC in the past 10 days. This divergence suggests that long-term believers are using the downturn to increase cold storage reserves while short-term traders exit ETF products.
At the same time, Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS) sold $104 million in structured notes tied to BlackRock’s IBIT, five times larger than any other crypto-linked product. Analysts interpret this as a sign of renewed institutional structuring around Bitcoin exposure rather than outright exit—suggesting that sophisticated investors may be hedging, not abandoning, the asset.
Market historians point out that Bitcoin’s multi-cycle structure has consistently featured mid-halving corrections of 25–40% before entering late-cycle accelerations. The ongoing decline fits this pattern closely, with similarities to 2016 and 2020 setups. The next halving, due in April 2028, continues to shape long-term supply dynamics, while over 95% of the 21 million cap has already been mined.
The repeated failure to sustain prices above $100,000 reflects not just speculative exhaustion but also rising macro headwinds. With U.S. yields still elevated and global liquidity constrained, Bitcoin’s function as an “inflation hedge” remains under scrutiny. Nonetheless, the structural scarcity and institutional adoption trajectory—reflected in Harvard’s recent Bitcoin ETF purchase, which made it the largest university holder—suggest that the long-term foundation remains intact.
Investor sentiment has turned deeply negative, with social and derivatives data pointing to extreme fear. Open interest in Bitcoin perpetual futures has dropped 17% in one week, and funding rates across major exchanges turned sharply negative, indicating that short sellers dominate. However, analysts view these metrics as precursors to short squeezes rather than evidence of sustained bearish conviction.
The Crypto Fear & Greed Index at 15 mirrors conditions observed during March 2020 and June 2022, both of which preceded powerful 80% rallies within a quarter. Volatility data from Deribit also show 30-day implied vol above 70%, consistent with cycle trough formations.
After synthesizing technical, on-chain, and macro data, Bitcoin (BTC-USD) appears trapped in a near-term corrective phase, with resistance at $98,000–$101,000 and potential downside to $83,000. The structure remains bearish short-term, as liquidity and sentiment constraints limit upside momentum.
However, the deep negative realized margins, institutional accumulation, and Standard Chartered’s forecast for a year-end rebound toward $120,000–$150,000 imply that the broader cycle remains constructive. Long-term holders continue to dominate, and with 19.95 million BTC mined, scarcity is becoming more visible than ever.
Verdict:
- Short-Term (2–4 weeks): SELL / Neutral Bias
- Medium-Term (3–6 months): HOLD / Base Formation Likely
- Long-Term (12+ months): BUY / Upside Potential $120K–$150K
That’s TradingNEWS.com