- Bitcoin holds above $100,000 as low spot volume meets strong ETF and long-term support.
- Traders await July Fed meeting and possible September rate cut to revive risk appetite.
- Break above $110,000 may confirm trend reversal; downside risk remains near $100,000.
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Bitcoin is on track to finish the second quarter of 2025 with a return of nearly 30%. Even with global market uncertainty and geopolitical tensions, the cryptocurrency has held up well after hitting a record high of $111,980 in May.
For the past two months, the most popular cryptocurrency has been trading between $100,000 and $110,000. Trading volumes have been low in both spot and futures markets, and individual investors are being cautious. This has reduced the chances of a sharp move upward. Still, the overall outlook remains positive, with a 15% gain since the start of the year.
Low Volume Signals Long-Term Accumulation
Bitcoin’s spot trading volume is currently just $7.7 billion, according to Glassnode. That is much lower than what was seen during the 2021–2022 bull markets. This low activity suggests that retail investors have not yet returned to the market in large numbers. On the other hand, long-term holders are still buying. In fact, illiquid supply—Bitcoin held in wallets with little or no selling history—now accounts for 75% of the total supply. This limited available supply is one of the key reasons prices have not dropped.
Meanwhile, US-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs have attracted over $2.9 billion in net inflows over the past 13 trading days. iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (NASDAQ:IBIT) is leading the way. However, since most of these inflows come from institutional and over-the-counter (OTC) channels, they do not immediately impact the spot market. Even so, the strong demand from ETFs signals ongoing long-term confidence.
Also, the SEC’s constructive stance on ETF applications tied to other cryptocurrencies—like Solana, XRP, Litecoin, and Dogecoin—may be a sign of further market expansion ahead.
Monitoring F&O Market Closely
Deribit data shows that the largest Bitcoin options expiry of the year is set for June 28, with contracts worth $15 billion coming due. The max pain point—where the most losses would occur—is at $102,000. Despite the size of this expiry, implied volatility has dropped below 38, its lowest level since October 2023. This suggests that traders do not expect major price swings in the near term.
Open interest in the market has also fallen by 7% in recent days, signaling a cautious outlook. The put-to-call ratio is at 0.73, meaning slightly more traders are buying put options than calls. This points to mild bearish sentiment, but not enough to suggest a sharp drop. After the expiry, however, we could see a pickup in market volatility.
What’s in Store in Q3?
Historical data shows that Bitcoin tends to perform weaker during the third quarter. This suggests that the current period of price consolidation may continue through the summer. Investors are also watching the US Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision in July, as its policy direction has a strong impact on Bitcoin’s price.
The market currently sees a low chance of a rate cut in July, but the probability of a cut in September is close to 90%. If that happens, it could lead to increased volatility toward the end of Q3.
A Fed rate cut could act as a positive trigger by boosting risk appetite, as it would signal confidence in the economy. Additional factors such as rising global liquidity—particularly from China—and a weaker US Dollar are also supporting demand for crypto assets that have a limited supply.
Still, the market is not without risks. While the recent ceasefire between Israel and Iran brought some relief, attention has now turned back to trade tensions. US President Trump has started hinting at the possibility of renewed tariff hikes. If new tariffs are announced after July 9, this could increase market volatility. Rising geopolitical tension and safe-haven demand could weigh on Bitcoin’s price if investors grow more risk-averse.
While the recent decline in the US dollar index is somewhat positive for Bitcoin, the two assets have a weak correlation, so a weaker dollar does not always lead to higher Bitcoin prices. However, rising commodity prices and better conditions in emerging markets could help boost demand for riskier assets like Bitcoin.
In summary, Bitcoin is currently trading within strong support levels. Spot trading activity remains low, but continued inflows into Bitcoin ETFs and steady buying from long-term holders are helping to stabilize the market. For a new rally to begin, stronger demand from individual investors is needed. Key triggers for this could include interest rate cuts and progress on trade agreements, both of which would likely improve market sentiment and risk appetite.
Technical Outlook for Bitcoin
Bitcoin briefly dipped below $100,000 during last week’s decline, but improving geopolitical conditions helped prevent a deeper drop. This allowed the price to hold above the key $100,000 level.
At the start of this week, Bitcoin bounced back from its lows and moved higher, but momentum slowed near the $106,000 resistance zone. Since yesterday, it has been trying to turn this resistance—centered around $106,500—into a support level. If the price holds above this level, there could be another push toward recent highs.
Looking at the chart, Bitcoin appears to be trading within a downward-sloping channel based on the lower highs and lows formed over the past month. If Bitcoin can close above $110,000 on a daily basis, it would break this pattern and potentially confirm the start of a new upward trend to new highs.
However, if the price gets rejected again near the upper band of the channel, the first support zone to watch is between $105,500 and $106,500. If this range fails to hold, the price may once again head toward the $100,000 mark.
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Disclaimer: This article is written for informational purposes only. It is not intended to encourage the purchase of assets in any way, nor does it constitute a solicitation, offer, recommendation or suggestion to invest. I would like to remind you that all assets are evaluated from multiple perspectives and are highly risky, so any investment decision and the associated risk belongs to the investor. We also do not provide any investment advisory services.