On Thursday, stablecoin issuer Circle Internet Group (NYSE:CRCL) made its public trading debut on the NYSE under the ticker CRCL. Having filed its initial public offering (IPO) prospectus in January 2024, Circle’s launch has been a huge success.
The company’s IPO shares were priced at $31, but the trading on the NYSE opened at $69, going all the way up to $103.75, and closing at $83.23 per share.
The 235% CRCL stock surge, from $31 to the $103.75 peak, shows that AI failed to fully overshadow the cryptocurrency sector, even though the interest over time for “blockchain” effectively flatlined. This is more of an indicator of crypto’s deeper integration into legacy systems, rather than waning interest.
Innovations from the crypto sector have become normalized as opposed to the excitement around AI, with its rapid performance development and new use cases.
After all, as long as the federal government is addicted to profligate spending beyond its means, Bitcoin will be there to paint a different picture of what money could look like. And if Bitcoin is there, it will keep pulling the wider crypto sector into relevance, regardless of market cycles.
Following the institutionalization of Bitcoin itself through spot-traded ETFs and Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, Circle is now the fourth pure-play crypto company, after Bitcoin miners MARA Holdings (NASDAQ:MARA), Riot Platforms (NASDAQ:RIOT) and Coinbase Global (NASDAQ:COIN) exchange.
However, the high interest in CRCL stock points to a particular direction for the crypto industry. But first, let’s examine what it took to get to this point and why crypto is still an exciting investment niche despite its downfalls.
Penetrating the Space Between Fraud and TradFi
Every innovation emerges to tackle a specific problem. Bitcoin did so just a year after the massive banking bailouts during the Great Recession of 2007-2008. Although Dodd–Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act, worth $475 billion from taxpayers, seems minor compared to today’s multi-trillion deficits, it was enough to rile up technological solutions to entrenched monetary problems.
The excitement around Bitcoin’s fixed scarcity, transparency, and proof-of-work (PoW) mechanism carried over to 2017’s initial coin offering (ICO) boom, centered around Ethereum (ETH) as it expanded smart contract functionality into decentralized finance (DeFi). However, the 2017 ICO boom also carried the foreshadowing of future crypto projects.
It soon became obvious that the bulk of blockchain projects of that era were fraudulent. Although cumulative gains were often in triple-digit figures post-listing, the survival rate of tokens after 120 days was only 44.2%, according to the Boston College study published in mid-2018.
To this day, the theme of inordinate short-term gains followed by deflated and inert crypto bags has been persistent, culminating in memecoins. Moreover, as the benefits of DeFi became obvious – a way to remove legacy intermediaries and open access to financial instruments with self-custodial wallets – the sector was hit with centralization.
From BlockFi and Celsius to Three Arrows Capital, Terra (LUNA) and FTX, these projects erected a centralized layer of interconnected, over-leveraged fragility. Their eventual collapse sent shockwaves through the industry, dragging down broader enthusiasm for crypto.
From these lessons, we can see the trend more clearly:
- By remaining conservative in its smart contract functionality, alongside PoW security and exertion of computing resources, Bitcoin erected a bulwark against volatile innovation of the broader crypto sector and its cascading liquidations.
- The shift from proof-of-work (PoW) to proof-of-stake (PoS) lowered the barrier to entry for new chains, tokens, and DeFi case uses, but also fragmented the crypto ecosystem.
- The fragmentation and ever-surging flood of new tokens made it more difficult to discern the fundamentals of blockchain projects.
- In turn, this fragmenting flood shifted the focus on tokenized gambling via memecoins for short-term gains.
The memecoin trading then attracted a new layer of fraudster specialists as they kept degrading the reputational capital of the entire crypto sector.
Yet, it is within this space that crypto also endures, owing to its inherent benefits over the legacy systems. As the bridging mechanism between DeFi and traditional banking services, USD-denominated stablecoins are the most successful product of crypto innovation.
Unfortunately, it wasn’t until the Trump administration that such innovation began receiving substantial acceptance.
Regulatory Onslaught Against Crypto Innovation
In parallel to malicious actors such as Sam Bankman-Fried and Do Kwon, the crypto sector suffered from systemic debanking. Just as the 2017 ICO boom foreshadowed the fraud of memecoins, so did the cancellation of Facebook’s Libra (Diem) project foreshadow the heavy resistance against stablecoins and DeFi.
The idea is simple and enduring. Given that blockchain virtually ensures transparency and security, and smart contracts facilitate interoperability, one-to-one stablecoins like Diem would make sending money as easy as sending a text message via apps. And these apps could interact with DeFi apps.
This level of frictionless, programmable finance threatened the very underpinning of TradFi, under the umbrella of fractional reserve banking. Effectively, every smartphone could turn into a borderless wallet, and every app into a financial hub, making banks redundant in the process.
Consequently, the entire federal apparatus went full gear into debanking mode, as outlined in Cooper & Kirk’s Operation Choke Point 2.0 paper. The first major victim to fall was Silvergate Bank in early 2023, one year after it acquired Facebook’s Diem stablecoin project. Signature Bank followed suit, also having served the crypto sector.
“I think part of what happened was that regulators wanted to send a very strong anti-crypto message…We became the poster boy because there was no insolvency based on the fundamentals.”
Barney Frank, Signature Bank (OTC:SBNY) Board member and co-author of Dodd-Frank Act
Simultaneously, SEC Chair Gary Gensler kept the pressure on the entire crypto sector with nebulous standards and enforcement, later noted as much by Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong.
“Warren and Gensler tried to unlawfully kill our entire industry, and it was a major factor in the Dems losing the election.”
Yet, the potential rollout of central bank digital currencies (CBDCs), as the government’s take on tokenized dollars, also became wildly unpopular and controversial. So much so that Fed Chair Jerome Powell eventually had to concede that no USD-denominated CBDC will launch.
After President Trump’s inauguration, the role of stablecoins has become clearer.
Integration of Stablecoins as Tokenized Dollars
By market cap, Tether (USDT) is the world’s largest stablecoin, at $154.2 billion, followed by Circle’s USDC at $61 billion. Both companies have fully integrated the federal government’s oversight. Case in point, whenever the Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) lists sanctioned individuals or organizations, Tether and Circle voluntarily and swiftly block and freeze USDT/USDC addresses.
This means that USDT/USDC can already perform as CBDCs, but without CBDC’s political baggage and backlash. Moreover, privately held Tether had already become the largest non-sovereign holder of U.S. Treasury bills and bonds. As of Q1 2025, attestation, Tether outpaced Germany with nearly $120 billion in Treasuries.
As a reminder, the entire U.S. monetary edifice and its profligate spending rely on constant demand for U.S. debt. And as Tether generates $1 billion in operating profit, largely due to exposure to Treasuries, the company bolsters that monetary system. Likewise, Circle’s holdings are largely composed of short-dated Treasury Bills.
Given the obvious importance of stablecoins to generate U.S. debt demand, these tokenized dollars are the most likely to receive a favorable legislative framework first.
Consequently, as USDC and USDT interact with DeFi apps, such as Aave, Sky (MakerDAO), Uniswap or Compound Finance, this gives the federal government leverage over the crypto sector but without the heavy-handed approach of the previous administration.
Ultimately, exposure to CRCL stock is an exposure both to the creditworthiness of the world’s only hegemon and to the innovative DeFi sector. And as comprehensive crypto legislation is ironed out, and DeFi engagement eventually surpasses memecoin gambling, it is likely that CRCL shares will surge to new highs.
Disclaimer: The author does not hold or have a position in any securities discussed in the article. All stock prices were quoted at the time of writing.
Neither the author, Tim Fries, nor this website, The Tokenist, provide financial advice. Please consult our website policy prior to making financial decisions.
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