Crude Oil: Supply-Side Pressures, Tariff Risks May Trigger Break Below Key Support

• US pressure on India and rising OPEC+ output weigh on crude price outlook.
• WTI crude tests key support near $64, with $60 and $55 as next targets.
• Market shrugs off lower US inventories, staying focused on global supply risks.
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This year, several factors are shaping oil prices across different grades. Along with the usual indicators like production levels, inventory data, and global demand, the ongoing trade war has emerged as a key variable. Despite some agreements being signed, tensions remain high and could escalate further.

India is currently in focus. The US, under Donald Trump, has imposed 50% secondary tariffs in response to India’s continued imports of Russian oil. India has made it clear it will not stop buying Russian oil, leading markets to assume the current situation will hold for now. However, pressure on the Indian government may continue to build.

On the supply side, OPEC+ has ramped up production. This increase could put downward pressure on prices, potentially pushing WTI crude below $60 per barrel again.

Customs Tariffs and OPEC+ Moves Shape Oil Market Sentiment

India, alongside Brazil and China, ranks among the largest buyers of Russian oil. But it is now drawing heightened attention from Washington. Since 2022, India’s crude imports from Russia have surged, reaching as high as 40% of total oil imports—roughly 2.15 million barrels per day, out of a national consumption of 5.5 million barrels. That makes Moscow Delhi’s top oil supplier by a wide margin.

If US pressure succeeds in pushing India to scale back purchases, Delhi could turn to other OPEC+ nations, which recently announced a fresh supply increase of 547,000 barrels per day. That would deliver a two-pronged hit to supply expectations—potentially pushing oil prices below the $60-per-barrel mark again.

Markets will also be watching closely for any similar pressure on China and Brazil, Moscow’s other major customers.

Drawdown in US Inventories Fails to Lift Bulls

US oil inventories came in below forecasts, but prices kept sliding. The market seems more focused on demand concerns than supply signals.

The US remains the world’s largest oil producer, with room to ramp up output if needed. In Q2 2025, ExxonMobil (NYSE:XOM) and Chevron (NYSE:CVX) raised production to 4.63 million and 3.40 million barrels per day, respectively. One soft data point is unlikely to shift the broader picture.

WTI Oil Approaches Major Support Zone

WTI crude has resumed its downward trend, testing key support near $64. A sustained break below this level could clear the path toward the next major threshold at $60, reinforcing the broader bearish momentum in oil markets.

If pro-supply pressures persist and WTI dips below $60, sellers may aim for the next key support near $55. On the upside, $70 remains the key resistance zone and the primary line of defense against further downside.

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