Eli Lily Q2 Earnings Preview: Future Depends on Mounjaro and Zepbound Performance

Eli Lilly’s (NYSE:LLY) upcoming earnings report will be closely watched as it solidifies its lead in the weight-loss drug market. Lilly’s Zepbound now captures 59% of U.S. prescriptions, surpassing Novo Nordisk’s (NYSE:NVO) Wegovy at 40%. Since a guidance cut on July 29, Novo’s ADR has declined over 34%.

Lilly shares have also declined, though not as sharply. The stock is down approximately 4% this year and over 20% since late last summer, when it reached intraday highs above $970.

Key Highlights

• Expanding Medicare coverage for obesity treatments could significantly boost the market for Eli Lilly’s Zepbound and other obesity drugs, leading to higher volume sales and better reimbursement rates.
• Eli Lilly’s robust pipeline includes promising candidates like orforglipron, an oral GLP-1 receptor agonist that could revolutionize the market, enhance patient compliance, and expand market potential.
• Risks surrounding the safety and efficacy of GLP-1 agonists could trigger regulatory scrutiny and impact patient and physician confidence.
• The company was on track to become the first pharmaceutical company to reach a trillion-dollar valuation a year ago, but it has yet to surpass that milestone. A series of weak earnings, setbacks for its obesity drug, and tariff threats have caused volatility, with the stock dropping 21% from its August high.
• A trial of Eli Lilly’s diabetes drug Mounjaro did not meet expectations for outperforming Trulicity in preventing heart attacks and strokes. While Mounjaro effectively reduced the risk of heart attacks, strokes, and cardiovascular death, it did not show a significant advantage over Trulicity, according to Lilly’s announced results.

LLY Q2 2025 earnings pre-market Thursday August 7, 2025

Technical Analysis Perspective

• In October 2024, LLY broke a 33-month rising trendline, initiating a larger consolidation pattern. The stock is currently trading within the 935 to 677 range.
• The stock is near a key support area between 750 and 734 and is facing overhead resistance in the 832 to 850 zone.
• From a technical standpoint, earnings serve as a strong catalyst for a breakout and can help determine the stock’s direction.
• A break below 734 pre or post earnings could open the door for a sharper decline towards the April 2025 low of 677.50 and further lower.
• Otherwise, sideways price action is expected to continue above the 750–734 support area, with potential movement toward the 832–850 zone after earnings.

Weekly Candlestick Chart

LLY Seasonality Chart

Since 2006, LLY has gained in August 45% of the years with an average increase of 2.4%, while September has seen a small gain of 0.2% in 47% of the years.

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