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In our previous update, we showed that per the Elliott Wave (EW) Principle, Ethereum (ETH) was completing five waves lower for the red Wave-c (W-c) as part of the large black W-4. See Figure 1 below. In this case, the 4th wave is a running flat where the red W-c failed to go below the red W-a. Besides, from a technical pattern perspective, we also showed Ethereum is most likely forming a Bull flag pattern (black dotted lines). The flagpole was the rally from the 2020 low to the 2021 ATH. The flag is the sideways 4th wave pattern, and a breakout can then target $6000+, assuming last month’s low holds, which we believe it will. See below
Figure 1. Our preferred long-term EW count for Ethereum.
Zooming in on the path since the December 2023 high, we were tracking a final wave lower for the completion of the red W-c to ideally around $1085, where the green W-5 would equal the length of the green W-1, measured from the green W-4 high: green dotted arrow. Moreover, that level was the 2.618x extension of W-1 measured from W-2. However, the bears could not push the price of Ether lower, and we were left with a failed 5th wave. This is why we stated,
“However, if ETH moves above at least the 50-d SMAs, the DT line, and $2093 without making a lower low first, we must consider the four-month-long downtrend complete and look towards the low $6000s over the next several months. As such, there’s an increasingly favorable risk/reward setup in the making for those who would like to have exposure to Ethereum, contingent on holding above its 2019 high at $356.”
Figure 2. Our detailed, short-term EWP count for Ethereum.
Yes, we don’t sweat the small stuff as it prevents one from seeing the forest for the trees. Knowing that a larger correction is completing, and will be followed by a >400% gain, is much more important than focusing on the last few percentage points lower.
In our last update, ETH was in a strong downtrend. What a difference a month makes as it is now in an uptrend:
- above the (red dotted) downtrend (DT) line, which has held all upside in check since the December high
- above its ascending 20-day simple moving average (20-d SMA), which is above the (blue) 50-d SMA.
- above the now-increasing Ichimoku Cloud
The only obstacle in its way is the (red) 200-d SMA.
Thus, Ethereum has most likely wrapped the more significant (black) 4th wave and should be on its way for a five-wave move to at least $6100+.