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In our last update from three weeks ago, when Ethereum was trading at around $3400, we shared our primary Elliott Wave (EW) Principle view, where we expected that
“… the first short-term top to form from around the red 100% Fibonacci extension, approximately $3600, for the gray W-iii—a typical target for the third of a third of a third wave. The subsequent multi-day gray W-iv correction should ideally stall around the 76.4% level ($3250ish) before the gray W-v targets the 123.6-138.2% extensions ($3955-4175), etc. We don’t expect a more severe (multi-week) correction until the red W-iii is finished, ideally at the 161.8% level: ~$4525.”
Ether reached a peak of $3859 on July 21, then fell to $3510 on July 24, rallied to $3941 on July 28, and is currently trading around $3675. See Figure 1 below. Therefore, the gray W-iii, iv, v completed relatively close to their ideal targets, demonstrating that the EW accurately forecasted each move and wave, confirming its reliability for every trader, investor, and especially our premium newsletter members.
Figure 1. Our preferred short-term EW count for Ethereum.
Assuming Sunday’s $3356 low marked the end of the green W-4, we can then set up the gray W-i, ii as shown in Figure 1 above. The ideal W-ii target zone is $3450-$ 3555, so Tuesday’s low at $3546 got close enough. Now, Ethereum is breaking above Monday’s $3737 high, strongly suggesting the gray W-iii of the green W-5 is underway, with confirmation above $3878. Thus, although the warning levels for the Bears are still shown, because W-5 has not yet been confirmed, those for the Bulls are now set at: 1st at $ 3737, 2nd at $ 3648, 3rd at $ 3546, and 4th at $ 3356.
Note that the ideal red W-v target at the red 200% extension of roughly $5100 is significantly below the breakout/symmetry target of about $6140. See Figure 2 below. Therefore, we may see an extended fifth wave, which is quite common for cryptocurrencies. Additionally, the 200% log-based Fibonacci extension indicates a target of around $6200, while a linear-scaled 300% Fibonacci extension targets the $6190s. All of these align.
Figure 2. Our preferred long-term EW count for Ethereum.