EUR/USD – Mild Recovery but Fragile Momentum; Bulls Need Break Above 1.1750

The EUR/USD closed at 1.1712, with an intraday high of 1.1713 and a low of 1.1695. The pair has rebounded modestly after a multi-session pullback, supported by soft U.S. yields and improving euro sentiment. However, momentum remains cautious, and the recovery is yet to confirm a sustained bullish reversal.

Key Technical Observations

Moving Averages in Neutral Alignment:
The 15-day moving average (1.1671) and 20-day moving average (1.1690) are nearly flat and have just converged — reflecting a short-term equilibrium between buyers and sellers. A clear break above both averages could shift control back to the bulls.

Trend Structure:
The pair remains range-bound within 1.1550–1.1800, showing a lack of directional conviction. Price action over recent sessions has stabilized above the 1.1650 level, forming a potential short-term base, but the broader trend remains mixed.

RSI Momentum:
The RSI stands at 52.94, slightly above the neutral 50 mark, indicating mild bullish momentum but not yet strong enough to confirm a trend reversal. The RSI’s gradual recovery from sub-40 levels signals improving sentiment but without significant momentum.

Price Action Behaviour:
Buyers are slowly regaining control, but the pair continues to face resistance near 1.1750, which coincides with the upper range of recent consolidation. A daily close above this threshold would be an early sign of a bullish breakout.

Macro & Market Context

Monetary Policy Divergence:
The ECB’s cautious tone, coupled with weak European growth data, has capped upside in the euro. Meanwhile, the US dollar’s recent strength is moderating as the Fed’s hawkish rhetoric softens, balancing the macro picture.

Inflation & Growth Outlook:
European inflation pressures are easing, while U.S. data continues to point to resilience, limiting the pair’s ability to sustain rallies. Markets are watching upcoming PMI and CPI releases for directional cues.

Risk Sentiment:
Improving global equity sentiment and lower volatility have supported moderate euro buying, but any resurgence in U.S. yields or risk aversion could quickly stall gains.

Key Levels to Watch

• Immediate Resistance: 1.1750 – key short-term pivot and range top.
• Next Resistance: 1.1850 – swing high and psychological barrier.
• Immediate Support: 1.1650 – short-term base and 15-day SMA zone.
• Deeper Support: 1.1550 – previous range low and structural support.

Bias: Neutral to Mildly Bullish

The short-term bias turns cautiously bullish as long as the pair holds above 1.1650, but the pair needs a firm break above 1.1750 to confirm an uptrend. Failure to do so may trap price within the ongoing sideways channel.

Traders should watch for buy setups above 1.1700, targeting 1.1750–1.1800, with stops below 1.1650. Until price decisively clears resistance, range trading between 1.1650–1.1750 remains the dominant strategy. RSI momentum supports gradual accumulation but warns of limited near-term upside without strong follow-through.