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EUR/USD is trading at 1.1667, after hitting an intraday high of 1.1675 and a low of 1.1652. The pair continues to hover just above short-term moving averages, with the 15-day moving average at 1.1659 and the 20-day moving average at 1.1662, both flattening out, reflecting consolidation after a strong rally.
Key Technical Observations
- Moving Averages Neutral: Price remains tightly coiled around the 15- and 20-day moving averages, showing equilibrium between buyers and sellers.
- Range-Bound Action: The pair has been capped below 1.1700 for several sessions, while holding support around 1.1600, creating a sideways channel.
- RSI at 55.40: Momentum leans slightly bullish, but still below overbought territory, suggesting room for upside if buyers gain traction.
- Trend Context: Despite recent stalling, the broader structure remains bullish after the breakout above 1.1400 earlier this year.
Macro & Market Context
- ECB vs. Fed Divergence: Softer US data has weighed on the US dollar, while ECB’s cautious stance continues to support the euro.
- Risk Sentiment: Global equity stability has helped the pair maintain bids, though geopolitical or rate surprises could trigger volatility.
- Catalysts to Watch: U.S. inflation prints and Eurozone PMI data will be critical to decide the next directional breakout.
Key Levels to Watch
- Immediate Resistance: 1.1700 (psychological and near-term ceiling)
- Breakout Target: 1.1800 – 1.1850 (recent highs)
- Immediate Support: 1.1630 (20-day moving average)
- Breakdown Support: 1.1600 (horizontal floor)
Bias: Mild Bullish Consolidation
As long as the pair holds above 1.1600, the pair remains biased to the upside, with 1.1700 the level to beat. A clean breakout would open the way for a push toward 1.1800. Conversely, a sustained break below 1.1600 could trigger deeper pullbacks to 1.1500.
Patience may be key. Buying dips near 1.1630–1.1600 with tight stops could offer favourable setups, while momentum traders should wait for a confirmed break above 1.1700 before chasing higher. Range-trading strategies remain valid until a catalyst drives resolution.
