EUR/USD Slips as Downtrend Resumes — Can Bulls Defend 1.15?

The euro continues to lose ground as EUR/USD dips to 1.1538, trading below key short-term moving averages and showing clear signs of bearish momentum. With the RSI sliding toward oversold territory and the trend turning negative, traders are watching the 1.1500 level closely — a major psychological and technical battleground.

Technical Outlook: Momentum Turns Bearish Again

The daily chart now reflects a decisive shift back into bearish structure:

• The 15-day and 20-day moving averages have turned downward, reinforcing a short-term downtrend.
• The pair is trading below both moving averages, signalling that rallies are being sold rather than accumulated.
• The RSI (14) is at 42.29, showing a steady loss of bullish momentum but still not oversold — leaving room for further downside.

This technical profile suggests continuation pressure toward 1.1500, with bears firmly back in control.

Macro Drivers: ECB Softness Meets Lingering Dollar Strength

A combination of euro-zone weakness and dollar resilience is fuelling the decline.

Bearish Drivers for the EUR

• Eurozone data continues to point to sluggish growth and cooling inflation
• The ECB remains cautious, with markets expecting fewer rate hikes ahead
• Demand for euro-denominated assets has not meaningfully recovered

Dollar Dynamics

• The U.S. dollar remains supported by higher relative yields
• Fed policy remains more hawkish compared to ECB outlook
• Risk sentiment still occasionally favours USD as a safe haven

With both fundamentals and technicals aligned, downward pressure on the pair remains credible.

Key Technical Levels to Watch

A break below 1.1500 would likely accelerate bearish sentiment and open the path toward 1.1440.

A reclaim above 1.1560 is needed to neutralize the immediate downtrend.

Sentiment Check: Traders Are Turning Cautiously Bearish

Current trader sentiment shows:

• Retail traders increasingly positioning long, trying to call a bottom
• Institutional flows remaining net-neutral to slightly bearish
• Options markets pricing greater downside risk over upside volatility

This divergence suggests contrarian pressure, where retail catching falling knives may fuel further declines.

Takeaway

The pair has slipped into a clear bearish configuration, with declining moving averages, weakened momentum, and price action pressing key support levels.

Unless bulls can reclaim the 1.1560 area, the path of least resistance remains lower.

A breakdown below 1.1500 likely triggers a deeper drop toward 1.1440.

Only a firm close above 1.1585 would signal a real shift in momentum.