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The EUR/USD pair closed at 1.1679, with an intraday high of 1.1682 and a low of 1.1658. After a strong rally earlier in the year, EUR/USD is now consolidating below key resistance, showing signs of potential profit-taking pressure.
Key Technical Observations
Moving Averages Mixed: The 15-day moving average (1.1754) is slightly above the 20-day moving average (1.1735), showing recent momentum loss as the two averages flatten and converge.
Trend Structure: Despite the recent pullback, the broader structure remains bullish with higher highs and higher lows. However, the failure to sustain above 1.1800 highlights that upside momentum is weakening.
RSI Neutral-to-Bearish: The RSI is at 46.40, below the midpoint, suggesting momentum has shifted toward sellers. This reflects caution as the pair struggles to maintain bullish momentum.
Resistance Rejection: Price has been rejected from the 1.1780–1.1800 zone multiple times, making this a strong ceiling. Repeated failures to clear it could lead to deeper retracements.
Macro & Market Context
- ECB vs Fed Divergence: The euro’s rally was driven by the ECB’s relatively hawkish outlook, but fading momentum suggests markets are now weighing weaker Eurozone data.
- USD Context: The DXY remains subdued near multi-month lows, but if the index stabilizes, the pair may face added pressure.
- Risk Sentiment: Global equities remain firm, but safe-haven flows into the USD could return if risk-off triggers emerge.
Key Levels to Watch
- Immediate Resistance: 1.1750 – 1.1800 (major rejection zone).
- Next Resistance: 1.2000 (psychological round figure).
- Immediate Support: 1.1600 – recent swing low.
- Deeper Support: 1.1500 – key structural level.
Bias: Neutral-to-Bearish
The medium-term uptrend is intact, but short-term momentum has weakened. Unless the pair can sustain above 1.1750–1.1800, risk skews toward consolidation or a pullback toward 1.1600–1.1500.
- Bullish Setup: Only valid if price breaks and sustains above 1.1800, opening room toward 1.2000.
- Bearish Setup: Watch for a rejection at resistance with downside toward 1.1600 as a near-term target.
- Neutral Play: Range trading between 1.1600–1.1780 is possible until a decisive breakout occurs.
