EUR/USD likely to find a peak near 1.25: UBS
GBP/USD is trading at 1.3481, after an intraday high of 1.3486 and a low of 1.3462. The pair is hovering just above its short-term moving averages, with the 15-day moving average at 1.3426 and the 20-day moving average at 1.3414, suggesting mild bullish momentum but no decisive breakout.
Key Technical Observations
- Moving Averages Aligned: Both the 15-day and 20-day moving averages are upward-sloping, reflecting steady but moderate bullish bias.
- Range-Bound Action (WA:ACT): Price is consolidating between 1.3420 support and 1.3520 resistance, with momentum capped near the psychological 1.3500 zone.
- RSI Neutral at 51.91: Momentum is balanced, showing neither overbought nor oversold conditions.
- Trend Pause: After a strong rebound off 1.3200, price is now stalling, indicating the market is awaiting fresh catalysts.
Macro (BCBA:BMAm) & Market Context
- US Dollar Drivers: Fed rate expectations and Treasury yields remain the biggest factors for near-term direction.
- GBP Sensitivity: UK inflation data and BoE policy shifts could trigger a breakout from consolidation.
- Risk Sentiment: Global equity performance and risk appetite may further dictate GBP/USD flows.
Key Levels to Watch
- Immediate Resistance: 1.3520 (range top & psychological level)
- Next (LON:NXT) Resistance: 1.3600–1.3650 (multi-week highs)
- Immediate Support: 1.3420 (aligned with SMAs)
- Breakdown Support: 1.3350 (horizontal pivot zone)
Bias: Neutral / Range-Bound
Until the pair clears 1.3520 or breaks below 1.3420, sideways trading remains the base case.
Patience may be key in the current setup. A clean breakout above 1.3520 could unlock upside toward 1.3600–1.3650, while dips into the 1.3420–1.3400 zone offer potential buying opportunities. Trading inside the narrow 1.3420–1.3520 band risks being caught in choppy consolidation.
