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The GBP/USD pair closed at 1.3352, with an intraday high of 1.3354 and a low of 1.3320. The pound continues to face selling pressure against the US dollar as the recent downtrend deepens, driven by a stronger greenback and fading optimism around U.K. economic resilience. Price action now hovers just above a critical short-term support zone near 1.3300.
Key Technical Observations
Moving Averages Turn Bearish: The 15-day moving average (1.3401) has crossed below the 20-day moving average (1.3426), confirming a near-term bearish crossover. Both averages are gradually sloping downward, suggesting sellers remain in control.
Trend Structure: The pair remains below its prior swing highs near 1.3600, maintaining a pattern of lower highs and lower lows. This structure underscores sustained bearish sentiment unless a decisive rebound above 1.3450 occurs.
RSI Momentum: The RSI stands at 42.68, firmly below the neutral 50 level. Momentum indicators show continued weakness, though not yet in oversold territory — implying room for further downside before potential exhaustion.
Price Action Behavior: The recent consolidation around 1.3300–1.3350 reflects hesitation but not reversal. Sellers are likely to press for a retest of 1.3250 if the pair fails to reclaim 1.3400 in the next sessions.
Macro & Market Context
U.K. Economic Outlook: Soft growth data and lingering inflationary pressures have limited the Bank of England’s flexibility, while cautious forward guidance has weighed on sterling sentiment.
US Dollar Strength: The broad-based dollar recovery, supported by resilient U.S. economic data and rising Treasury yields, continues to undermine the pair.
Interest Rate Differentials: The yield spread remains in favour of the U.S., sustaining pressure on the pound as the market anticipates a slower rate-cut path from the Federal Reserve relative to the BoE.
Key Levels to Watch
- Immediate Resistance: 1.3450 – neckline of the recent breakdown.
- Next Resistance: 1.3600 – upper range high and key psychological barrier.
- Immediate Support: 1.3300 – current pivot and short-term floor.
- Deeper Support: 1.3250 – prior swing low and potential breakdown point.
Bias: Bearish
The short-term structure remains bearish while the pair trades below 1.3450. A sustained break under 1.3300 would open the door toward 1.3250–1.3200, whereas a recovery above 1.3450 would neutralize near-term downside risk.
Momentum favours the bears. Traders can look for sell rallies toward 1.3400–1.3430, targeting 1.3250, with stops above 1.3470. Until RSI or moving averages show reversal signs, rallies are likely to be capped and met with renewed selling pressure.
