Analyzing the movements of the gold futures on Friday, I find that the extended rally in gold futures is likely to evaporate in today’s session. This only reflects a sudden reaction after Israel launched a major pre-emptive strike on Iran, hitting dozens of military and nuclear targets that provided a knee-jerk reaction on the U.S. dollar and other safe-haven currencies.
Undoubtedly, this conflict could extend some more.
Still, most of the nations will come forward to lessen this tussle at the earliest, as US President Donald Trump could take the lead as the surging bearish pressure on gold futures above $3444 is quite visible in today’s move as this is a pivotal point where the big bears remain on the top since the gold futures tested this level for the first time on Apr. 21, before hitting a new high at $3510 on Ap. 22, 2025.
A massive sell-off was seen above this rally despite escalating geopolitical concerns due to the imposition of tariffs and trade tussles that disrupted global economic growth all over the world, including the U.S.
On Friday, gold futures tested a high at $3466.74, after the day’s opening at $3416.85, currently trading at $3436.84, indicating a surge in bearish pressure above the immediate resistance at $3444, where the gold futures are sustaining above the 9 DMA in a daily chart.
I anticipate that if the gold futures are not able to defend the immediate support at $3380 on Friday, bearish pressure could extend the selling spree during the next wee,k as some positive steps are expected to come out shortly to lessen this tussle between Iran and Israel.
Undoubtedly, the Israel-Iran strike heightening the chance of a broader regional conflict, gold’s upward momentum could persist until clarity emerges as the U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio has said that Israel carried out its military action against Iran independently, citing self-defense as the driving motive behind the strikes.
On the other hand, US-China trade uncertainty still remains in focus despite signs of progress, making the gold bulls remain skeptical before loading fresh shorts.
But, I anticipate that the recent high tested by the gold futures has defined the limits for the gold bulls while the bears could turn extremely aggressive soon the currently prevailing geopolitical concerns are likely to ease as the U.S. and Iranian officials were due to hold a sixth round of talks in Oman on Sunday on Tehran’s uranium enrichment program.
Disclaimer: Readers are advised to take any position in gold at their own risk, as this analysis is based only on observations.