Gold at the Crossroads: Harmonized Technicals Signal a Climactic Resistance

Published 08/09/2025, 07:36
Updated 08/09/2025, 08:20

Gold futures have extended their advance into $3,639.8 on September 5, 2025, marking a near $200 surge from the August 28 pivot low at $3,442.5. This rally has now reached a critical resistance confluence, where price, time, and probability converge.

The VC PMI Sell 1 Daily ($3,659), Sell 2 Daily ($3,696), and Sell 1 Weekly ($3,704) frame a tight supply zone, with probabilities of 90–95% favoring mean reversion from these levels. At the same time, the weekly mean ($3,605) and daily mean ($3,631) serve as pivots of equilibrium, while Buy 1 Daily ($3,613) and Buy 2 Daily ($3,574) offer downside targets if a corrective wave emerges.Gold 5-Day 15-Min Chart

From a Fibonacci perspective, the $3,554 level (38.2%) coincides with Weekly Buy 1, and $3,455 (78.6%) aligns with Weekly Buy 2, forming a harmonic retracement corridor that strengthens the case for mean reversion. The structure suggests that if resistance holds, the $3,574–$3,554 zone will be a natural magnet for price.

Overlaying the Square of 9 spiral, the August 28 low at $3,442.5 projects forward precisely into the $3,627–$3,642 range, which coincides with the September 5 high of $3,642.8. This direct harmonic confirmation signals a completed upward rotation. The next resistance arc on the Square of 9 emerges at $3,696–$3,704, matching the VC PMI Sell 2 Daily and Sell 1 Weekly zones. This geometric convergence of resistance arcs underscores that gold is operating within a completed phase of the spiral.

The Gann cycles now add the time dimension to this price alignment. The 30-day cycle, anchored to the August 2 pivot low at $3,339, projected a crest into the September 3–5 window, which has been fulfilled with the recent rally into resistance.

The next 30-day trough is due October 3–5, suggesting that any decline into the $3,574–$3,554 zone could align with this time target. Expanding the horizon, the 360-day cycle that began with the September 28, 2024 low projects a crest into late September 2025. This positions the current advance as a major cyclical culmination point, where both the annual and monthly cycles crest into resistance.Gold Futures Technical Chart

Momentum indicators confirm the theme of exhaustion. The MACD (14,3,3) is positive but flattening, hinting that bullish energy may be peaking. Taken together, the VC PMI probabilities, Fibonacci retracement clusters, Square of 9 arcs, and Gann cycles all converge into the same conclusion: gold has reached a time-price window of resistance with a high likelihood of mean reversion before the next sustainable advance.

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