Gold: Bulls and Bears Brace for September Shake-Up

Published 14/08/2025, 09:00
Updated 14/08/2025, 10:24

After reviewing the movements of the gold futures in different time chart, I anticipate that the bulls and the bears seem to be waiting for a definite clue to move further.

After testing a low at the significant support at the 50 DMA, gold futures are constantly facing stiff resistance at $3422 in a daily chart due to currently prevailing indecisiveness on trade tariff front.

Undoubtedly, President Trump’s move to keep the gold bars out of the tariff ring ticked the gold higher for three consecutive days after a sharp decline at the start of this week.

After extending the tariff trade deadline for China this Wednesday for another 90 days to avoid a three-digit tariff, on Thursday, the US President warned of “severe consequences” for Russia if Vladimir Putin blocked progress toward peace in Ukraine ahead of their summit, which is scheduled for this Friday.

Undoubtedly, gold’s advance has been tempered by such geopolitical developments as the outcome of Friday’s summit between President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin in Anchorage will provide a definite clue for the further directional moves of the gold futures.

I anticipate that a constructive outcome of this summit could reduce demand for gold as a safe-haven, and will like to trigger a selling spree in gold futures, while any signs of failed negotiations or heightened tensions could boost bullion prices.

On the other hand, mild data has strengthened the case for the Fed to cut its benchmark interest rate at its September meeting. Markets now price in a 95% probability of a reduction next month, and the lower interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets such as gold, making bullion more attractive to investors.

Levels to Watch

Gold Monthly Chart" src="https://d1-invdn-com.investing.com/content/a72957266ef935b1833f503b7bfb99aa.jpg" alt="Gold Monthly Chart" align="bottom" border="0">

In a monthly chart, gold futures have been constantly facing stiff resistance at $3506 since May, after testing a high at $3543 in April 2025, while every upward rally was sold, resulted in the formation of bearish hammers despite testing a low at $3305 in June 2025.

I anticipate that if the body of this month’s bearish hammer turns from green to red could raise the probability of the formation of a long bearish candle in September 2025, where the gold futures are expected to find a breakdown below the significant support at $3305.
Gold Futures Weekly Chart

In a weekly chart, gold futures are trying to hold above the immediate support at the 9 DMA at $3394, after facing stiff resistance at $3469 this week, which resulted in the formation of a bearish hammer.

I anticipate that if the gold futures find a breakdown below the immediate support at the 9 DMA, next support can be tested at the 20 DMA at $3335, where a breakdown below this significant support could push the gold futures towards the next significant support at the 50 DMA at $2987, from where some reversal could be seen.
Gold Futures Daily Chart

In a daily chart, gold futures are trying to defend the immediate support at the 20 DMA at $3413, from where a breakdown could push the gold futures back to test the next significant support at the 50 DMA at $3379.

Disclaimer: Readers are advised to take any position in gold futures at their own risk, as this analysis is only based on observations.

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