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After reviewing the movements of gold futures in different time frames, I find that exhaustion will likely follow the surging strength of the US dollar, as stronger-than-expected US consumer inflation has dented bets that interest rates will fall in the near term.
On Wednesday, gold futures showed some strength but faced stiff resistance at the immediate resistance level of $3389, as safe-haven demand for gold remained relatively underpinned by persisting concerns over U.S. President Donald Trump’s trade tariffs.
On the other hand, growing uncertainty over the Federal Reserve’s independence, amid growing calls from Trump and his allies for Chair Jerome Powell’s ouster, also factored into haven demand, as did tensions between Russia and Ukraine.
Undoubtedly, the yellow metal struggled to make headway amid increased speculation that gold prices were overbought after hitting record highs in April, as the gold futures remained squarely within a specific trading range $3300-$3500/oz, despite seeing some gains this week.
And now, this trading range going to be narrowed down this month to $3251-$3389, resulted in closure of the Bollinger Bands in the daily chart which confirms a downward bust soon as the gold futures are only teetering to defend the immediate support at the 50 DMA at $3338 and a breakdown below this could push the gold futures to test the next support at the 100 DMA at $3235.
Undoubtedly, if the gold futures break down below this significant support at 100 DMA, the next support at the 200 DMA at $2980 can be tested soon once Trump’s tariff deadline ends on August 1, 2025.
Levels to Watch
In the monthly chart, gold futures are trying to hold the closing level of the last month, when the volatile movements by the gold futures resulted in the formation of a bearish candle where the upper wick was too large while the lower wick was too small, which could surge bearish pressure in gold futures this month.
Undoubtedly, if the gold futures find a breakdown below the immediate monthly support at $3389, the next support will be seen at $3251, where a breakdown could push the gold futures to test the next support at the 9 DMA at $3048 in the monthly chart.
In the weekly chart, gold futures are trading below the immediate support at the 9 DMA at $3352, which confirms the persisting weakness in gold futures, which could push the gold futures to test the next significant supports at $3292 and $3248 shortly, as the upside seems to be capped at a significant resistance at $3388.
In the daily chart, gold futures are trying to hold the immediate support at the 50 DMA at $3338, while the formation of a bearish crossover with a downward move by the 20 DMA below the 50 DMA is likely to push the gold futures to test the next support at the 100 DMA at $3235 shortly.
Secondly, a bumpy move by the US dollar in the daily chart could be supportive for the gold bears.
In the hourly chart, gold futures have come down below the significant support at 200 DMA at $3340 after the formation of two bearish crossovers with a downward move by the 50 DMA below the 100 DMA while the 9 DMA and 20 DMA have moved below the 50 DMA that confirms the advent of a steep slide by the gold futures.
Disclaimer: Readers are advised to take any position in gold futures at their own risk, as this analysis is based only on observations.