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Gold futures have advanced sharply to $3,516, staging an impressive recovery from the weekly low of $3,362.8. This rally has been technically significant, carrying the market through multiple VC PMI daily and weekly pivot levels, Fibonacci retracements, and now into the Sell 1 Daily resistance zone at $3,536. This zone aligns with a confluence of cyclical and geometric resistance, making it a high-probability turning point for mean reversion.
VC PMI and Fibonacci Alignment
The VC PMI framework identifies $3,536 as Sell 1 Daily, directly above the VC PMI Daily Mean at $3,499 and Buy 1 at $3,480. From a probability standpoint, the further the market extends into the Sell 1–Sell 2 band, the higher the odds of reversion to the mean. This aligns with the Fibonacci grid, where price is pressing against the 78.6%–100% extension zone from the $3,362.8 low. The overlap of Fibonacci resistance with VC PMI Sell zones amplifies the likelihood of a corrective phase.
30-Day Gann Cycle
- Green line = simulated path of Gold Futures for visualization.
- Red dashed line = Sell 1 Daily ($3,536) resistance.
- Blue dashed line = VC PMI Daily Mean ($3,499).
- Cyan dashed line = Buy 1 Daily ($3,480).
- Purple dashed line = Buy 1 Weekly ($3,435).
- Orange dotted lines = Square of 9 harmonic projections from the $3,362.8 low.
- Gray vertical lines = 30-day Gann cycle markers.
- Black vertical line (not shown yet in this short window) would represent the 360-day Gann cycle, anchored from the September 28, 2024 pivot.
This chart above shows how the Sell 1 Daily zone ($3,536) aligns with Square of 9 resistance and sits inside a maturing 30-day Gann cycle crest. The next major 360-day cycle date is coming into alignment, further elevating this as a high-probability time/price turning point.
The 30-day Gann cycle, often associated with intermediate swings, projects a turning point window into early September (around September 4–5, 2025). Gold’s current strength is occurring just ahead of this cyclical crest. Historically, price advances into the 30-day window often exhaust momentum and reverse back toward equilibrium levels.
This suggests that the current test of $3,516–$3,536 could represent the culmination of the short-term cycle, with reversion likely toward $3,499–$3,480 first, and possibly deeper toward $3,435 if profit-taking accelerates.
360-Day Gann Cycle
The longer 360-day Gann cycle, anchored to last year’s September 28 pivot, reinforces the importance of the current time/price window. We are now approaching the 360-day anniversary cycle, which historically has coincided with major turning points in Gold. The confluence of this dominant cycle with the maturing 30-day swing increases the odds that late August into early September will mark a primary cyclical pivot.
Square of 9 Projections
Overlaying the Square of 9, the $3,536 level corresponds closely with a harmonic projection from the $3,362.8 low. This geometric alignment underscores the resistance structure now being tested. If the market decisively clears $3,536, the next Square of 9 harmonic opens a pathway toward $3,575–$3,600. However, failure here would validate the mean-reversion scenario toward $3,480–$3,435.
Conclusion
Gold is now at a time/price convergence, where the VC PMI Sell 1, Fibonacci resistance, the 30-day cycle crest, and the 360-day Gann anniversary overlap. This confluence strongly favors a pause or reversal. A decisive breakout above $3,536 would be highly bullish, but until confirmed, traders should prepare for mean reversion retracements toward $3,499–$3,480, and potentially $3,435.
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