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Gold continues to hold firm near $4,140, consolidating just below recent highs after an impulsive breakout.
Institutional price action suggests the metal is currently undergoing a controlled retracement phase within its broader bullish expansion — a textbook setup for re-accumulation before the next drive toward external liquidity above $4,180.
4H Anchor Context — Structure and Bias
- Trend Structure: Bullish (series of higher highs and higher lows).
- Active Range: $4,085 – $4,190 (Equilibrium ≈ $4,137).
- Market Phase: Retracement phase after a displacement-led expansion.
- Bias: Long positions favored within discount arrays below EQ; short-term liquidity sweeps likely in premium above $4,170.
The 4H chart identifies two active POIs:
- A continuation demand near $4,115–$4,130 (fresh, unmitigated).
- A supply trap around $4,165–$4,175 (potential liquidity sweep).
These POIs serve as anchors for 1H refinement and entry execution.
1H Execution Refinement — Precision Zones
Priority 1 Buy Zone – “Golden Zone of the Day”
- Refined Range: $4,118 – $4,128
- Type: Continuation Demand (1H refined from 4H OB)
- Confluence Score: 6
Rationale:
1. 4H continuation OB refined to a nested 1H OB within open FVG.
2. Aligns with the 61.8–78.6 % OTE retracement of the recent 1H impulsive leg.
3. Liquidity sweep below $4,130 acts as inducement for smart money re-entry.
4. Strong displacement candle confirms institutional origin.
5. Round-level magnet ($4,120) offers defense alignment.
6. Volume confirmation favors expansion post-manipulation.
Execution Plan: Wait for 1H CHoCH + bullish engulf confirmation within zone.
Stop Loss: $4,108
Targets: $4,168 / $4,218 / $4,268 / $4,318 / Open.
Priority 2 Buy Zone – “EQ Rebalance Pocket”
- Range: $4,090 – $4,100
- Confluence Score: 5
A refined 1H OB and partial FVG overlap sit at 4H equilibrium.
This mid-range liquidity pocket acts as a secondary buy area if the Golden Zone fails.
Stop Loss: $4,080 | Targets: standard ladder.
Priority 3 Sell Zone – “Liquidity Sweep Resistance”
- Range: $4,165 – $4,175
- Confluence Score: 4
Above $4,160 lies equal highs with resting buy-side liquidity.
A 1H supply OB + Inversion FVG creates a potential reversal zone for short-term scalps.
Stop Loss: $4,182 | Targets: $4,150 → $4,125 → $4,105.
Priority 4 Buy Zone – “Deep Discount Defense”
- Range: $4,062 – $4,070
- Confluence Score: 4
A fresh unmitigated 1H OB forms near the base of the 4H discount range.
This serves as the final defense zone before a structural invalidation occurs.
Stop Loss: $4,050.
Session and Correlation Outlook
- Asia: Building internal liquidity above $4,145.
- London Killzone: Potential liquidity sweep into $4,118–$4,128 for institutional re-entry.
- New York: Expansion expected toward external liquidity near $4,175–$4,190.
Cross-Market Alignment
Market |
Bias |
Effect on Gold |
Weak |
Favors bullish gold continuation |
|
Sideways |
Neutral-to-bullish metals bias |
|
Silver (XAG) |
Slight lag |
SMT divergence confirms re-accumulation |
S&P 500 |
Mildly risk-on |
Limited headwind for gold |
The combination of weak DXY and steady yields keeps gold’s higher timeframe narrative intact.
Institutional Summary
Gold remains in a retracement-to-continuation sequence with high-probability demand zones between $4,118–$4,128 and $4,090–$4,100.
The Golden Zone ($4,118–$4,128) provides the most technically aligned re-entry setup — a 1H OB + FVG + OTE cluster perfectly nested in 4H continuation demand.
A confirmed defense here should lead to expansion above $4,175, targeting $4,218 and beyond.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Trading gold carries risk; only use capital you can afford to lose and confirm setups independently.