Gold: Convergence of Resistance May Challenge Current Rally

Published 09/09/2025, 06:01
Updated 09/09/2025, 09:02

Gold futures settled at $3,673.8 on September 8, 2025, after reaching a high of $3,685.7. At first glance, the market appears stable, holding just above the VC PMI Daily pivot of $3,672.

However, beneath this surface strength lies a powerful confluence of cyclical and structural signals that suggest Gold may have reached an important top and is preparing to reverse lower.

The 30-day Gann cycle has been the guiding rhythm of this advance. Anchored from the August 2 low at $3,339, the projection called for a cycle crest in the September 3–5 window. True to form, Gold surged into $3,685 right on schedule, confirming the alignment of price and time.

With the crest window now behind us, the cycle is projecting a downward trajectory into the October 3–5 trough, opening the door to a multi-week corrective phase.

This bearish outlook is reinforced by the 360-day annual cycle, which has been building toward a major crest for late August into early September 2025. Anchored from the September 28, 2024 low at $2,286, this longer framework identifies the current rally as a culmination of a year-long cycle.

Gold pressing into the $3,701–$3,726 resistance band not only fulfills the VC PMI Sell 1 and Sell 2 levels but also matches the expected long-term turning point. This creates a rare cycle convergence, where both the short-term and annual cycles signal exhaustion simultaneously.

Gold Futures Price Chart

The VC PMI framework provides the execution roadmap. With the market hovering near equilibrium at $3,672, the next decisive move will set the tone. If Gold fails to break and hold above $3,701, probability strongly favors a reversion to the mean. First downside targets lie at $3,637–$3,598 (Daily Buy 1 and Buy 2).

A deeper retracement would test $3,605–$3,554, aligning with the weekly pivot and Buy 1 levels. Should bearish momentum accelerate, the $3,455 zone becomes the ultimate magnet into the October cycle trough.

Gold 5-Day 15-Min Chart

In summary, Gold is standing at a critical juncture where time and price harmonics align in a bearish configuration. The 30-day crest has passed, the 360-day annual cycle has reached its peak, and VC PMI resistance has capped the advance. Unless bulls can decisively clear $3,726, the path of least resistance is down, with mean reversion targeting progressively lower support levels into early October.

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