Gold Demand Surges as Moscow Turns Into a Captive Buyer

Published 20/11/2025, 07:09
Updated 20/11/2025, 07:56

Russia’s central bank isn’t just nibbling on gold anymore — it’s backing the flatbed right up to the loading dock and sweeping every bar the domestic market can cough up. And in a world where sanctioned reserves can’t move, dollar assets are frozen, and geopolitics keeps rewiring the global plumbing, the Kremlin has decided there’s only one reservoir that still flows freely: bullion.

What’s happening beneath the headlines is more than Moscow’s familiar “buy gold, shun dollars” mantra. The liquidity dynamics inside Russia’s own gold market have quietly transformed, allowing the central bank to scale up operations well beyond what was possible a few years ago. This isn’t some chest-thumping stunt; it’s a structural shift, and it’s one more quiet tailwind beneath a market already living on fear, deficits, and de-dollarisation drift.

For years, the domestic market was simply too thin for sustained accumulation. Russia may be the world’s second-largest producer, but miners can only sell as fast as local liquidity allows. Sanctions cut off international channels, yet ironically forced the system to mature — turnover is now high enough that the central bank can conduct equivalent-volume ops in both yuan and gold, rotating assets for the National Wealth Fund with the precision of a trader rebalancing an LDI portfolio into strength.

And here’s the kicker: the NWF — now split roughly 60% yuan, 40% gold — has become a fiscal shock absorber for Moscow’s budget deficit. That means every rally in global gold prices doesn’t just pad reserves; it increases the usable liquidity Moscow can tap without touching frozen Western assets. Rising market cap equals rising political optionality.

In other words, Russia isn’t just buying gold; its entire reserve architecture now flows through gold. The market may have fixated on the frozen $300-plus billion held abroad, but inside Russia, the unfrozen pieces are being weaponised in real time.

For global traders, this matters. You have a major producer with no access to international financial rails, a sanctions-driven pivot that turbocharges domestic liquidity, and a reserve manager that now uses bullion as a policy tool — not just a macro hedge. When a central bank with nearly $720 billion in reserves (frozen portions included) decides gold is its only clean clearinghouse, that’s not a flow you fade.

That’s a slow-burn structural bid that shows up exactly when gold’s other drivers — sliding real yields, fragile geopolitics, and the ever-present de-dollarisation hum — are already pushing the metal into new valuation regimes.

Russia has basically become a captive buyer. China is quietly hovering. The Global South keeps accumulating. Western investors remain underweight. And every time the market tries to declare gold “tired,” another sovereign reminds us that in this fractured system, metal is the one asset no one can freeze.

This is why dips feel scarce and liquidation windows get immediately met with physical demand. Gold isn’t just a trade right now; it’s becoming a settlement layer for a world where trust is evaporating faster than liquidity.

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