Upon analysis of the movements of the gold futures in an hourly charts, I find that the gold futures ripe enough to see a $100 fall before the U.S. President Donald Trump’s deadline for higher tariff rates end on July 9 as optimism over the resilience of the US economy, after much more robust than expected monthly payrolls figures, has been quickly overshadowed by a cloud of uncertainty.
Despite initial confidence from Trump and his team that there would be a flurry of deals, an agreement with Vietnam announced on Wednesday takes the total so far to just three, including framework agreements with Britain and China.
Undoubtedly, Trump’s approach on tariffs has shifted according as he says letters will start going out to trading partners on Friday with the duties they will pay on trade with the United States, ensures one more steps back by him if the deals are unreached before his deadline as the bullish vibes in gold prices seems to be fading due to long Independence Day weekend, leaves a little space to complete this task before July 9 deadline.
On the other hand, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has said a deal with India is close, but talks with Japan and South Korea, which had been touted as likely early successes, have been stalled for weeks.
I anticipate that such a scenario is likely to trigger selling in the gold futures on Friday, as the upside appears to be capped at $3377, but the lower side seems vulnerable to a steep fall, given that gold futures are facing stiff resistance at $3354 on Friday.
In a daily chart, gold futures are trying to hold the immediate support at the 50 DMA at $3335 where a breakdown could push the gold futures to test the next support at the 100 DMA at $3198 during the upcoming weeks as the 9 DMA is about to form a bearish crossover by piercing the 50 DMA shortly.
Secondly, the advent of the bearish engulfing since July 1, 2025, looks evident enough to generate a bearish reversal for gold futures.
In a 1-hour chart, gold futures, gold futures are trying to hold above the lower end of the Ichimoku Clouds, which could generate a bearish reversal in today’s trading session.
I anticipate that if the gold futures find a breakdown below the immediate support at $3321 within the next few hours, the slide could be steep enough to push the gold futures to test the next support at $3270 on Friday.
Disclaimer: Readers are advised to take a position in gold at their own risk, as this analysis is based only on observations.