TSX higher amid U.S. government shutdown
Gold futures (/GC) continue to demonstrate a strong mean-reversion dynamic as price hovers around $3,876, holding above both daily and weekly pivot levels. The market has rallied sharply from lows near $3,749, and after briefly testing resistance at $3,899, it has retraced to retest the daily VC PMI mean ($3,862). This area now serves as a key inflection point for near-term direction.
VC PMI Structure
The daily framework establishes critical price zones:
- Sell 2 Daily: $3,914
- Sell 1 Daily: $3,884
- Mean Daily (VC PMI): $3,862
- Buy 1 Daily: $3,805
- Buy 2 Daily: $3,756
On the weekly scale, equilibrium aligns closely:
- Sell 2 Weekly: $3,904
- Sell 1 Weekly: $3,857
- Weekly Mean: $3,787
- Buy 1 Weekly: $3,744
- Buy 2 Weekly: $3,670
This confluence around $3,857–$3,904 highlights a resistance cluster that has capped recent rallies, while the $3,744–$3,805 zone provides a robust layer of demand.
Cycles & Square of 9
Overlaying the 30-, 90-, 180-, and 360-day Gann cycles reveals that gold is in a critical timing window. The 30-day cycle points to short-term retracement probabilities, while the 90-day harmonic suggests a mid-cycle crest forming. The 180-day window, aligned with seasonal tendencies, supports higher volatility into Q4. Longer-term, the 360-day cycle projects potential acceleration in trend moves as the market aligns with Square of 9 price harmonics between $3,914 and $3,670.
These harmonics suggest that a break beyond $3,914 could extend toward higher Square of 9 projections, while failure to hold above $3,787 risks a retest of the $3,670 level.
Momentum & Market Psychology
The MACD momentum indicator confirms a short-term bearish crossover, with the histogram turning negative. This signals that the rally has lost immediate strength, and traders should be cautious about chasing breakouts until momentum re-aligns. Still, volume patterns indicate strong accumulation near $3,750–$3,805, suggesting institutional support.
Outlook
The near-term battle remains between $3,862 support and $3,884 resistance. A close above $3,884–$3,914 would validate bullish continuation toward new cycle highs. Conversely, a break below $3,805 could open the path to $3,744–$3,670, completing the mean reversion sequence.
In essence, gold remains locked between strong buy and sell zones, with cycles suggesting heightened volatility into October. Traders should remain disciplined, using VC PMI levels and cycle harmonics as risk management anchors for entries and exits.
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TRADING DERIVATIVES, FINANCIAL INSTRUMENTS AND PRECIOUS METALS INVOLVES SIGNIFICANT RISK OF LOSS AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR EVERYONE. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.