Gold Futures Stall With US Tariff Deadline Adding Pressure

Mushrooming uncertainties every day with a new face diverts the focus of investors and analysts alike, causing them to overlook certain methodologies for calculating the price direction of precious metals, especially at a time when a political leader attempts to influence the price of every single commodity in a desired direction.

Currently, gold prices look to be a victim of the circumstances, challenging the global analysts to adopt new methodologies to calculate the directional moves of the gold prices both for the short and long term as the traditional tools as the demand and supply, interest rates, inflation levels and the moving average remain clueless about the next directional move of the gold futures due to their movements turn against all odds. In contrast, the gold prices look clueless right now.

Despite losing its safe-haven potential at such higher prices, gold futures are sustaining at the current level and declining to go down as the surging uncertainty over U.S. tariffs and interest rates keeps haven demand strong.

Gold futures remained largely on edge over the U.S. tariffs as the August 1 deadline for their imposition draws closer, while the risk sentiment was rattled by waning hopes for an EU-U.S. trade deal, with the European Union seen preparing retaliatory tariffs in the face of reportedly higher-than-anticipated US tariffs.

On the other hand, Trump’s administration also recently signaled that it was unlikely that it would extend the August 1 deadline further but I anticipate that this tariffs deadline will have to be extended or the U.S. administration will have to come with more sophisticated option to lessen trade confrontations at this crucial time if the US President Donald Trump want the global trade according to directional path.

Gold futures are currently trading in a narrow range, waiting for a clue from the resultant trade equations, which will be defined once this tariff deadline ends. And if this deadline sees further extension, gold futures will meet with a selling spree that could push them to test $3000 levels in August.

On the other hand, some analysts are too optimistic over the gold price to hit new highs at $3,700 an ounce in 2026, well above the current Wall Street consensus at $3,073 as the technical formations support the advent of a bearish trend in gold futures as the looming uncertainty will end with a strong US dollar as the U.S. President will remain focused to keep dollar strong at any cost.

Levels to watch

In the daily chart, gold futures are facing strong bearish pressure well below the immediate resistance at $3421, despite yesterday’s bumpy move from the immediate support at 9 DMA at $3361 and the 50 DMA at $3345.

I anticipate that if the gold futures find a breakdown below the significant supports at 9 DMA and the 50 DMA in today’s session, the next important support at $3314 could be tested.

Inversely, only a sustainable move above the immediate resistance at $3421 will provide a good opportunity for bears to load fresh shorts above $3455 with a stop loss at $3477, as the formation of a bearish doji in the daily chart confirms a downward move by the gold futures.

Secondly, dollar Index futures look ready for a strong reversal from the current level that will support the gold bears this week.

Disclaimer: Readers are advised to take any position in gold at their own risk, as this analysis is based only on the observations.