Gold: Lagging Rally Signals Caution Amid Fed Cuts and Trade Policy Swings

Published 10/11/2025, 09:44
Updated 10/11/2025, 09:54

Gold’s performance this week reveals deep uncertainty. Stocks and bonds surged, but gold’s rally lagged, reflecting market skepticism and unease. Investors remain caught between headline news—such as Congress’s rush to prevent a US government shutdown—and ongoing doubts about inflation, even after a US-China trade truce eased some concerns. In this market, hope clashes with hesitation. Gold’s hesitation is telling.

If inflation proves more persistent than markets expect, the effects could be significant. We saw such implications in last week’s Fed decision, which followed the fastest rate cuts outside a recession since the 1980s.

Undoubtedly, U.S. President Trump is still working to calm the currently prevailing uncertainty by adopting flexible policies on the imposed trade tariffs on China and other trading partners.

Technical Levels to Watch

Gold Futures Daily Chart

In a daily chart, gold futures moved higher on Monday while bonds and equities have rallied extends the skepticism over the strength of this rally as the sustainability of this rally yet to get confirmation with its sustenance above the immediate resistance at $4114 in today’s session where any further attempt to test the next resistance at $4124.94 could attract big bears to load fresh shorts with a stop loss at $4236.55 for the immediate target at $3906, and the second and third targets at $3716 and $3426 till this year ends.

Gold Futures 1-Hr. Chart

In an hourly chart, gold futures look ready for a steep pullback to move below the immediate support at $4077.84, and where a sustainable move below this could push the futures well back below the significant support at the 200 DMA ($4018).

Disclaimer: Readers are requested to take any position in gold at their own risk, as this analysis is based only on observations.

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