- Gold retreats slightly after record highs, but broader upward trend remains intact despite risks.
- Trade tensions, recession concerns, and economic data could spark renewed volatility, lifting gold prices.
- Gold’s key support levels near $3,245–$3,283; breaks could lead to tests of $3,167 and $3,100.
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Gold has started the new week down about 1.2% at the time of writing by mid-morning London trade. The precious metal took a breather last week after repeatedly hitting record highs, as stock markets found their footing with the S&P 500 and other global indices all marching higher.
As traditional safe havens took something of a breather, gold prices, having previously hit a record peak of $3,500, fell sharply to a weekly low of $3,260, before managing a respectable recovery to close around $3,319. Despite the drama, the end result was a relatively flat week for bullion. For now, the broader gold price direction remains constructive despite the slight loss of haven allure.
Yet, until we see definitive signs of lower highs, lower lows, and real trade agreements rather than yet more political posturing from Trump, I cannot rule out the possibility of new highs for the precious metal.
Temporary Calm, but Risks Still Loom Large
Although the broader markets showed signs of stabilising last week, and we have seen a calmer stock market thus far in today’s session, genuine confidence remains elusive. Beneath the surface, familiar threats — namely trade tensions, recession anxieties, and monetary policy uncertainties — continue to simmer, any of which could easily reignite volatility.
Of particular concern are the ongoing US-China trade negotiations. Should Washington refuse to ease tariffs, or if talks fall apart entirely, investors may swiftly seek refuge once again, lifting the gold price in the process.
Could Incoming Economic Data Alter the Gold Price Trajectory?
While trade disputes have dominated the headlines, economic fundamentals and company earnings will return to centre stage this week. It’s a packed calendar: GDP figures from major economies, China’s all-important April PMI readings, and earnings updates from the so-called ‘Magnificent 7’ tech giants. Trade war impacts will also be assessed via US ISM manufacturing data and economic updates from Canada and Mexico.
Although the first-quarter US GDP print may already feel dated, consumer confidence surveys and corporate results should offer a sharper lens into current sentiment. Topping it off, Friday’s US labour market report looms large — a potential trigger point for fresh market turbulence. Against this backdrop, caution remains the order of the day, and the medium-term gold price outlook stays firmly tilted to the upside.
Technical View on Gold Price: Key Levels in Focus
Gold’s sharp retracement after the $3,500 milestone underscores the significance of that level as major resistance. Still, the overarching bullish structure remains intact.
The immediate question is whether buyers will emerge as the gold price approaches critical support zones. Watch the $3,245–$3,283 area closely; this was a key battleground last week and could again attract demand. Should that level give way, though, eyes will turn to $3,167 — the prior breakout high from earlier this month.
For my part, the real "line in the sand" lies near the rising trendline around $3,100. A retreat that far would be notable, yet could also offer an appealing bounce opportunity. It would take a decisive break of that threshold, accompanied by lower highs and lower lows, to meaningfully tarnish the longer-term bullish narrative for the gold price, insofar as technical analysis is concerned.
As for resistance, initial hurdles now reside around $3,366, followed by $3,430. Should momentum reassert itself, a re-test of the all-time high at $3,500 could well be on the cards.
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