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Investing.com -- Bank of America warned that the Federal Reserve risks committing a policy mistake if it begins cutting rates next month, despite Chair Jerome Powell’s dovish tone at Jackson Hole.
“Barring further deterioration of the labor market, we think that the Fed would risk a policy error if it were to cut rates,” the bank wrote.
“We see signs that economic activity has picked up after the soft patch in 1H. If that is correct, the labor market will likely also rebound. Meanwhile, the underlying inflation picture – excluding of tariffs – has not improved since the Fed started cutting last year.”
BofA noted that while housing-related inflation has eased, other categories have stayed flat or moved higher.
Powell, speaking in Wyoming, said “the balance of risks appears to be shifting” toward the labor market, citing concerns about payroll revisions and the possibility of rising unemployment.
“The baseline outlook and the shifting balance of risks may warrant adjusting our policy stance,” he added.
BofA said those comments were more dovish than it and markets expected, and that Powell was “clearly spooked by the downward revisions to payrolls.”
Markets reacted by increasing bets on a September cut, adding nearly 4 basis points of easing into futures. BofA, however, maintains its call for no move.
The bank said a 4.2% unemployment rate with job growth of 70,000 or more could keep a hold in play, though a weaker outcome would tilt toward easing. Inflation data, including August CPI and PPI, will also be critical.
BofA contrasted Powell’s tone this year with 2024, when he declared “the time has come for policy to adjust” and telegraphed the start of the cutting cycle.
Now, with policy rates already 100 basis points lower and inflation higher, the bank argued the Fed’s risks are tilted to the upside, making premature easing more dangerous.
Barclays (LON:BARC) said yesterday it has revised its outlook, bringing one of its projected 2026 cuts forward to September, while noting that the threshold for back-to-back or larger moves remains high.