Gold: October Setup Suggests Binary Outcome: $4,000 Breakout or Deep Reversion

Published 03/10/2025, 18:14
Updated 03/10/2025, 18:16

Gold futures last at $3906.8, marking a gain of +$38.70 (+1.0%) as the market continues to consolidate near a critical inflection zone. The confluence of VC PMI levels, Square of 9 harmonics, and Gann cycle time markers makes October a decisive period for price direction.

On the VC PMI framework, gold is trading in the upper resistance band defined by Sell 2 Weekly ($3904) and Sell 2 Daily ($3958). The market remains bullish as long as it sustains closes above the Daily Pivot ($3878). Below this pivot, downside risk expands toward Buy 1 Daily ($3833) and the deeper Buy as I write this Weekly ($3787) and Buy 2 Weekly ($3740) supports.

Gold Futures

The Square of 9 geometry adds further weight to this inflection. Resistance pivots at $3951.8 and $3996.8 align closely with Sell 2 Daily, creating a harmonic resistance ceiling. On the downside, supports at $3861.8 and $3816.8 reinforce the VC PMI buy levels, suggesting strong reversion potential if the market retraces.

From a time cycle perspective, October is highly significant. The 360-day cycle, anchored from September 28, 2024, is aligning now, indicating a major long-term pivot. Additionally, the 30-day Gann cycle projects into early November, signaling a window for volatility and potential reversal. The convergence of these cycles with resistance geometry suggests a potential turning point by late October.

Gold Futures - Gann Cycle

  • Orange Line: Gold price trajectory extended into late October.

  • VC PMI Levels: Clearly labeled Buy/Sell zones for both daily and weekly.

  • Square of 9 Harmonics: Key resistance ($3951.8–$3996.8) and support pivots ($3861.8–$3816.8).

  • Gann Cycles:

    • 30-day cycle (purple): early November pivot.

    • 360-day cycle (red): long-term anchor from Sept 28, 2024.

  • Green Marker: Current price at $3906.8.

This chart now gives you a complete October roadmap, where both price geometry (VC PMI + Square of 9) and time geometry (Gann cycles) converge into a high-probability inflection.

Interpretation:

  • Sustained closes above $3958 would confirm a breakout and open the path toward $4000+, a psychological and harmonic target.

  • Failure to penetrate resistance could trigger a reversion back into the $3833–$3740 range, which aligns with both VC PMI and Square of 9 supports.

In summary, October marks a high-probability inflection zone for gold, where both time and price geometry converge. Traders should prepare for heightened volatility and use the VC PMI levels to frame reversion opportunities.

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