Gold Rally Tests Vibrational Resistance as Annual Cycle Tops Out

Published 01/10/2025, 15:51
Updated 01/10/2025, 15:56

 A unified trading framework combining VC PMI pivots, Gann cycles, and Square of 9 projections toward the 4000–4100 zone.

Gold futures have staged a decisive rally off last week’s low of 3749.7, reaching a peak at 3922.7. The market is now consolidating near 3894, just under the critical resistance cluster formed by Sell 2 Daily (3922) and Sell 2 Weekly (3904). The convergence of these higher-level pivots reflects a zone of strong supply where profit-taking and distribution are expected.

From a VC PMI mean reversion perspective, the daily pivot at 3864 remains the first line of support. A close below it could initiate reversion toward Buy 1 Daily (3830) and potentially Buy 2 Daily (3786). On the weekly horizon, the pivot sits at 3787, aligning closely with this daily demand cluster. This symmetry creates a reinforced support band between 3786–3787, making it a critical inflection point.

Gold Futures Chart

Cycle Analysis

The 30-day cycle indicates shorter-term oscillations of accumulation and distribution. The recent rally coincided with a 30-day cycle upswing, suggesting momentum could remain positive into early October before a corrective pause. The 360-day cycle, however, represents the broader annual rhythm, currently in a topping phase after its bullish crest. This implies that while gold may extend higher in the near-term, the probability of a cyclical reversal increases into late October–November, where longer-term resistance zones converge.

Gold Futures - Cycle Analysis

Square of 9 Harmonics

The Square of 9 places the recent high at 3922 within a harmonic range tied to earlier pivots around 3740–3780. This price structure suggests that 3922 is not only a resistance zone, but also a vibrational point connected to prior lows. If gold sustains above this harmonic barrier, the next geometric expansion points project toward 3956–3980. Conversely, failure here could reinforce the reversion targets at 3830–3786, completing the harmonic swing.

Interpretation

  • Bullish case: Sustained closes above 3904–3922 would confirm breakout potential, with Square of 9 extensions targeting 3956–3980 and eventually the 4000 psychological milestone.

  • Bearish case: Failure to hold 3898–3904 invites a pullback toward 3864, with a break below triggering a mean reversion decline into the 3830–3786 demand zone.

  • Cycle confluence: Short-term (30-day) momentum favors the bulls, but the annual (360-day) topping phase warns of increased risk of reversal as October progresses.

Strategic View: Gold is at a critical harmonic juncture. Traders should monitor the 3898–3922 cluster as a decisive control zone. Above it, momentum aligns with cycle expansion; below it, reversion toward 3830–3786 dominates. The Square of 9 reinforces that 3922 is a vibrational resistance, demanding caution at current levels.

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