TSX jumps amid Fed rate cut hopes, ongoing U.S. government shutdown
Gold futures are currently trading at $3,600, after peaking at $3,640.1 earlier in the session. This rally carried the market directly into the Sell 1 Daily ($3,652) and Sell 2 Daily ($3,671) zones while simultaneously touching the Sell 2 Weekly ($3,599) level. From a VC PMI probability framework, this represents an extreme overbought condition where 90–95% odds favor a mean-reversion decline back toward equilibrium levels.
The VC PMI daily mean sits at $3,622, which has already acted as a magnet in the last few hours. If this level cannot hold, then the path opens toward the weekly mean at $3,477, aligning with deeper corrective potential. Stronger support layers remain at Buy 1 Weekly ($3,435) and Buy 2 Weekly ($3,328), both of which coincide with Fibonacci retracement zones between $3,467–$3,420. These levels offer high-probability buy setups if the market flushes lower.
Gann Cycle Analysis
The 30-day Gann cycle, measured from the August 2, 2025 low at $3,339, projected a crest into the September 3–5 window. The market’s test of $3,640 aligns perfectly with this projection, suggesting a cycle top has been registered. If the cycle continues to unfold in symmetry, the next 30-day trough window falls on October 3–5, positioning the market for a potential mean-reversion decline into that period.
The 360-day master cycle, anchored from the September 28, 2024 pivot low, is also exerting influence. This longer-term structure anticipates a major cyclical turning point into late September 2025, increasing the probability that the current rally has marked an intermediate-term peak. The confluence of these cycle dates underscores the importance of the $3,640–$3,671 price/time cluster as a pivotal inflection zone.
Square of 9 Harmonics
The Square of 9 projections from the $3,339 pivot highlight harmonics at $3,599, $3,671, and $3,722. Gold’s rejection from the $3,599–$3,640 band validates these resistance harmonics, suggesting that unless the market can break decisively above $3,671, the probability favors a rotational move lower.
Conclusion
Gold futures are entering a correction phase after testing extreme overbought zones at $3,640–$3,671. The VC PMI framework signals a likely mean reversion toward $3,622 initially, then $3,477. The 30-day cycle crest adds timing confirmation, with the next trough window (Oct 3–5) suggesting that downside pressure may dominate into early October. Long-term harmonics and the 360-day cycle reinforce this outlook, indicating that $3,640 may represent more than a short-term high—it could mark an intermediate cycle peak.
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