Gold Stalls Below $3,900 as Cyclical Resistance Caps Momentum

Gold futures (GC) closed at $3,878.5, down $19 (-0.49%), after testing highs near $3,923.3 and rejecting the Sell 1 Daily zone. The session was characterized by strong volatility as buyers attempted to push through the $3,900 pivot cluster, but selling pressure capped advances. The intraday low at $3,878 sits directly in the Buy 1 Daily zone, a critical short-term support.

The broader pattern highlights gold trading within a compressed supply-demand box framed between $3,857–3,904 (Weekly Sell 1 vs. Buy 2 Daily) with momentum swinging rapidly inside this band.

VC PMI Framework

Daily Levels:

• Sell 2: $3,943
  
  
• Sell 1: $3,923
  
  
• Pivot: $3,900
  
  
• Buy 1: $3,878
  
  
• Buy 2: $3,857
  
  

Weekly Levels:

• Sell 2: $3,904
  
  
• Sell 1: $3,857
  
  
• Pivot: $3,780
  
  
• Buy 1: $3,740
  
  

The convergence of Weekly Sell 2 ($3,904) with the Daily Pivot ($3,900) makes this the dominant resistance barrier. Conversely, $3,857–3,878 remains the tactical support band to watch.

30-Day Cycle

The current 30-day cycle peaked into late September, aligning with the high at $3,923. Historically, this mid-cycle top is followed by 5–7 sessions of consolidation/pullback before the next up-leg resumes. If this rhythm holds, gold may retest $3,815–3,786 (Fibonacci 50%–61.8%) before stabilizing.

360-Day Cycle

The long-term 360-day cycle bottomed at $3,740 (Sept 28, 2024 anchor low) and projects forward to Aug 28, 2025 as a cycle top window. With gold sustaining above $3,780 weekly pivot, the cycle bias remains bullish into Q4 2025, with projected targets above $4,150–4,200 by year-end if momentum confirms.

Square of 9 Harmonics

Using the Square of 9 wheel, the pivot $3,900 resonates with harmonic levels at $3,786 (support) and $4,188 (resistance). This aligns precisely with Fibonacci retracements and VC PMI levels, reinforcing that $3,786–3,815 is the key mean-reversion zone.

Momentum & MACD

The MACD remains positive (14.15 vs. 10.04) but with a narrowing histogram, signaling weakening momentum. A bullish crossover continuation above $3,900 would validate a fresh push toward $3,943–3,988. A failure below $3,857 shifts the bias toward $3,815–3,786.

Outlook: Gold is consolidating under heavy resistance at $3,900–3,943. A breakout confirms upside continuation toward $4,150+ in alignment with the 360-day cycle. Failure to hold $3,857 opens a mean-reversion decline toward $3,786–3,740.

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