Gold prices just lower; monthly gains on track
Gold futures are currently trading at $3438.5, consolidating gains after a sharp advance that brought prices above both the Daily VC PMI pivot (3423) and the Weekly pivot (3398). This dual alignment of price above equilibrium levels confirms a short-term bullish bias, supported by structural momentum and cycle positioning.
Short-Term Technical Outlook
The market is holding firm just below the Sell 1 Daily level (3452), which coincides with the Weekly Sell 1 level (3444). This clustering of resistance establishes a critical profit-taking zone, where contrarian sellers are likely to emerge. If price action breaks and sustains above $3452–$3468, it would project an advance toward Sell 2 Daily (3471) and potentially open the way for higher-timeframe extensions.
On the downside, the VC PMI Daily pivot (3423) and Buy 1 Daily (3405) form the first support band, reinforced by the Weekly pivot (3398). A failure to hold this zone could shift the market back into neutral or even bearish territory, with downside objectives toward 3377 (Buy 2 Daily) and 3353, the 78.6% retracement level that aligns with a recent swing low.
Cycle Analysis – 30-Day & 360-Day
From a 30-day cycle perspective, Gold is emerging from a mid-cycle trough, with the current upswing projected to mature into early September. This suggests that the bullish momentum seen above the pivot levels is not only tactical but also aligned with the broader rhythm of market timing.
The 360-day cycle, a major Gann framework, places us in the latter stages of an accumulation phase that began earlier this summer. The alignment of short-term pivots with this long-term cycle backdrop suggests the market may be preparing for a more significant breakout into the fall quarter, provided resistance bands are decisively cleared.
Gann Square of 9 Alignment
Using the Gann Square of 9, the pivot at $3398 resonates with harmonic angles that map to $3452 and $3471, reinforcing the Sell 1 and Sell 2 zones as key inflection points. Conversely, the downside harmonic aligns with $3353, confirming it as a strategic support where long-side re-accumulation is favored if tested.
Directive Strategy
- Long Bias: Maintain longs above 3423–3398, targeting 3452–3471.
- Profit-Taking Zone: Use 3452–3468 to scale out or hedge positions.
- Risk Management: A sustained close below 3398 negates the bullish setup, shifting the focus to 3377–3353 as the next accumulation band.
- Gold remains in a cycle-supported bullish posture, with near-term resistance likely to be tested into the September 30-day cycle top.
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