Gold Trading at Cycle Crest? Resistance Cluster Suggests Potential Exhaustion

Gold futures are trading at $3,694, following a strong test of the $3,704–$3,715 resistance cluster, defined by the Sell 1 Weekly ($3,704) and Sell 2 Daily ($3,715) pivot levels. This convergence of daily and weekly resistance represents a high-probability inflection point within the VC PMI framework, signaling that price has entered a zone of overextension. The inability to sustain trade above this cluster in early sessions highlights the possibility of short-term exhaustion and sets up conditions for a mean reversion move.

On the downside, the VC PMI Daily supports lie at $3,673 (Buy 1) and $3,659 (Buy 2), while deeper retracement levels converge with Fibonacci anchors: $3,644 (38.2%), $3,607 (50%), and $3,573 (61.8%). The confluence between VC PMI Buy 1 Weekly at $3,557 and the 61.8% retracement strengthens the case for a powerful support zone in the $3,575–$3,557 region. From a probability standpoint, should the market fail to hold above $3,673, the odds of a reversion into these lower Fibonacci supports increase significantly.

Overlaying Gann’s 30-day and 360-day cycles, we observe a harmonic rhythm aligning with the September 28 cycle anchor date. The market’s rally into early September coincided with the culmination of a 30-day cycle window, suggesting that the high at $3,715 may represent a short-term cycle crest. The larger 360-day cycle also indicates a pivotal turning point this month, raising the probability that resistance near $3,704–$3,715 will act as a ceiling unless decisively broken.

The Square of 9 geometry adds another layer of validation. Projecting from the $3,572 anchor low, harmonic rotations align with $3,644 and $3,704 as natural resistance points, which the market has now tested. If the resistance holds, the Square of 9 spiral suggests potential downside harmonics toward $3,607 and $3,573, creating symmetry between price and time. Conversely, a decisive breakout above $3,715 would project higher harmonics at $3,742 and $3,781 as upside targets.

In summary, Gold is at a critical juncture. Sustaining trade above $3,704–$3,715 would unlock another wave higher into $3,742–$3,781, supported by bullish momentum. Failure to break this cluster, however, tilts probability toward mean reversion, first into $3,673–$3,659, then deeper toward $3,607–$3,573 where VC PMI, Fibonacci, and Gann cycle supports converge. Traders should closely monitor the daily pivot at $3,673 as the fulcrum for immediate directional bias.

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TRADING DERIVATIVES, FINANCIAL INSTRUMENTS AND PRECIOUS METALS INVOLVES SIGNIFICANT RISK OF LOSS AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR EVERYONE. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.