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Amid changing face of prevailing concerns, it might be a difficult task to map the next move by the gold bulls and bears as both are struggling hard at this pivotal point where the developments on tariff deals look evident enough to dent the global economy, like a double edge sword, as the US stance on this front is still unclear while dealing with Iran, Saudi Arabia, Russia and China.
Undoubtedly, any hard stance to impose higher tariffs and penalties by the US on its trading partners, which could divert these tariff trade tussles to form new trade setups where the de-dollarization could be on the top of the agenda for every trading partners by accepting local currencies while they trade with each other in new trade setups.
Any further steps by US President Donald Trump to halt their efforts could increase the likelihood of escalating this trade war into an actual war, which would not be a preferable outcome. In contrast, these trade disputes could be resolved through more accommodating trade policies by the trading partners.
After reviewing the movements of the gold futures since April 7, 2025, when the gold futures tested a low at $ 2,970 before the advent of an uptrend that pushed the gold futures to test a new high at $ 3,510 on April 22, 2025.
Undoubtedly, this 10-trading session’s journey kept the bulls in amazing courage, but since then, bears have capped the upside at this point as one more attempt by bulls on July 23, 2025, resulted in a sharp selloff that pushed the gold futures to test a low at $3322 on July 30, 2025.
I anticipate that amid growing anxiety over the trade tariff August 1 deadline, gold futures bumped up from the lows of $3320 on July 30 and attempted to test the significant resistance at $3421 on Aug. 1 while trying to sustain at this pivotal point amid surging expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts following weak U.S. labor data and heightened trade tensions under President Trump.
Last week, the dollar weakened after nonfarm payrolls increased by 73,000 jobs last month, after rising by a downwardly revised 14,000 in June, which revived hopes of a Fed rate cut in September.
I anticipate that even if the gold futures find a sustainable move above this pivotal point at $3421, selling could start in case of any attempt to test the next resistance at $3468, where the big bears will load fresh shots with a stop loss at 3512 with a target at $3292 for this week.
Disclaimer: Readers are advised to take any position in gold at their own risk, as this analysis is only based on observations.