Government-Backed Stocks Have Exploded 80%–Here’s How Small Investors Can Benefit

Imagine the US government taking real ownership in major companies, not just giving loans or tax breaks, but buying actual shares. That’s exactly what’s happening right now, and the results have been impressive. Stocks like Intel (NASDAQ:INTC), MP Materials (NYSE:MP), Lithium Americas (NYSE:LAC), and Trilogy Metals (NYSE:TMQ) have all skyrocketed, up between 80% and 150% this year. The government’s portfolio is now worth over $17 billion, and it’s outperforming most hedge funds on Wall Street.

This isn’t a traditional industrial policy. When Washington shifted from handing out grants to taking direct equity stakes in strategic companies this year, it created a major shift in how these stocks trade. Federal backing transformed speculative mining plays into de-risked investments with guaranteed revenue streams. And while the big moves may have happened, the multi-year trend of reshoring critical supply chains is just beginning, creating opportunities for everyday investors who understand the playbook.

The Portfolio: What Jumped and Why

• Intel (INTC) saw the government convert $8.9 billion in CHIPS Act funding into a nearly 10% stake at about $20 per share in August. The stock surged roughly 80% to over $37 as investors priced in multi-year factory funding and federal commitment to domestic chip production. For Intel bulls, government backing provides concrete support for what was previously a speculative turnaround story.
• MP Materials (MP) secured a $400 million Department of Defense investment for a 15% stake, but the real value was in the deal structure. The DoD guaranteed a $110 per kilogram price floor for rare earth oxides and committed to purchasing 100% of magnet production for ten years. This transformed commodity uncertainty into predictable cash flows, sending shares up over 380% year-to-date as the market revalued America’s only rare earth mine with defense-contract revenue certainty.
• Lithium Americas (LAC) saw the Department of Energy take a 5% equity position by converting deferred loan payments into penny warrants. The Nevada Thacker Pass project (expected to become the Western Hemisphere’s largest lithium source by 2028) rallied over 200% on government validation before consolidating.
• Trilogy Metals (TMQ) received a $35.6 million investment for a 10% stake plus warrants, combined with an executive order fast-tracking permits for Alaska’s mineral-rich Ambler district. Shares tripled overnight on the dual catalyst of capital and regulatory acceleration.

These figures come from official company announcements and Reuters/CNBC disclosures between August–October 2025. Total government portfolio value today: ≈ $17.2 billion.

Why This Matters for Everyday Investors

Government investment changes how the market values these companies. Here’s why:

1. Less Risk, More Certainty
   When the government guarantees purchases or price floors, it removes much of the uncertainty around future sales. That makes these stocks more stable and attractive.
2. Faster Progress
   Projects that usually take years to get approved move faster when federal agencies are directly involved. This means companies can start generating cash sooner.
3. Stamp of Approval
   When Washington takes a stake in a company, it sends a clear message to the market: this business is essential for America’s future. That tends to attract big-money investors and boost stock prices.

How Small Investors Can Play This

The Conservative ETF Approach

For most retail investors, sector ETFs offer the cleanest exposure without single-stock risk. The VanEck Rare Earth and Strategic Metals ETF (NYSE:REMX) provides broad access to rare earth producers including MP Materials and global peers. The Global X Lithium & Battery Tech ETF (NYSE:LIT) captures the entire lithium supply chain with over $2 billion in assets. For semiconductor exposure, the iShares Semiconductor ETF (NASDAQ:SOXX) tracks chipmakers and equipment suppliers benefiting from federal fab construction.

ETFs deliver 60-70% of the sector upside with 20-30% less volatility than individual mining stocks, the right tradeoff for investors who want thematic exposure without betting everything on permitting delays or technical failures.

Tactical Direct Positions

Risk-tolerant investors can allocate 3-5% to individual government-backed names, buying on pullbacks rather than chasing headlines. Intel around $37 offers multi-year semiconductor reshoring exposure with federal downside support. MP Materials, despite its massive run, maintains appeal through its price floor protection and upcoming magnet production milestones.

The key discipline: use stop-losses 15-20% below entry, limit any single position to 5% of portfolio value, and buy weakness after announcements rather than strength during them.

The Supply Chain Play

Semiconductor equipment manufacturers like Applied Materials (NASDAQ:AMAT)  and Lam Research (NASDAQ:LRCX) provide indirect exposure with lower volatility. When the government backs domestic chip production, equipment orders follow with multi-year visibility. These companies trade at premium valuations (15-20x forward earnings versus 10-12x for chipmakers) but deliver more predictable revenue as the picks-and-shovels of the reshoring trend.

Options for Defined Risk

Long-dated calls (LEAPS) expiring in 2027 on Intel or MP Materials let investors capture multi-year rerating while capping downside to the premium paid. Alternatively, covered calls on volatile holdings generate 2-4% monthly income during consolidation periods between major announcements. Put spreads work well for hedging around binary events like permitting decisions or production starts.

The Risks You Can’t Ignore

Government backing doesn’t eliminate operational reality. MP Materials’ magnet production has faced delays, with commercial output now expected "later this year" versus earlier projections. Price floors only protect production that actually occurs. Permitting delays, construction overruns, or technical failures still create losses.

Watch for dilution from warrants. Trilogy’s deal includes warrants for an additional 7.5% ownership that will dilute existing shareholders when exercised. Read SEC filings to understand conversion terms.

Valuation matters, even with federal support. Lithium Americas pulled back sharply when analysts questioned whether fundamentals justified the rally. The initial "government stake premium" reverses quickly if companies miss execution milestones.

Commodity exposure persists for uncontracted production. Not all output has government price protection; anything sold on open markets faces normal cyclical volatility, including potential Chinese dumping to undercut U.S. producers.

The Practical Game Plan

Conservative investors should allocate 5-7% to sector ETFs for diversified exposure. Moderate risk-takers can split 6-8% between 3-4% direct positions in established government-backed companies and 3-4% in ETFs. Aggressive traders might deploy up to 10% across tactical positions plus speculative bets on potential next targets like USA Rare Earth or Energy Fuels.

Universal rules: Never exceed 10% total allocation to this theme. Dollar-cost average rather than lump-sum investing. Monitor Department of Defense procurement announcements and Commerce Department press releases for early signals of new investments. Use limit orders given extreme volatility.

What’s Coming Next

The government has hinted it will expand into new areas soon, especially quantum computing, advanced materials, copper mining, and even battery recycling. These future deals may offer the same kind of jumpstart opportunities seen in Intel or MP Materials earlier this year.

As this trend continues, investors should keep an eye out for announcements involving federal stakes or partnerships. These news events have consistently sparked big moves, often within hours.

Key Takeaways

Government-backed stocks are creating a unique moment for investors. Federal money has turned risky industries into potential growth powerhouses by guaranteeing sales, speeding up projects, and signaling long-term support.

For new investors, the smart move is to start small, stay diversified, and focus on companies or ETFs tied to critical U.S. industries. The early numbers speak for themselves: when Washington takes a stake, the market listens, and so should you.

This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Always conduct independent research before making investment decisions.