Home Depot Earnings Preview: Results Under Pressure From Housing Slowdown, Tariffs

Demand for home-improvement products is closely aligned with housing-market fundamentals. Because many homeowners renovate prior to listing a property or soon after purchase, the current stagnation in the housing market has adversely affected The Home Depot (NYSE:HD). The company’s sales growth has been lackluster for several years, and the second quarter is unlikely to diverge from this trend.

Key Highlights:

• Foot-traffic data from Placer.ai show Home Depot store visits fell 2.2% year over year in the second quarter.
• FactSet consensus estimates same-store sales will rise 1.3% for the quarter—an improvement from a 0.3% decline in the April quarter, but still below the level that would indicate a sustained recovery in home improvement.
• Analysts forecast that Home Depot will report adjusted second-quarter earnings of $4.72 per share on $45.4 billion in sales according to FactSet consensus estimates.
• According to credit card purchase data from Affinity Solutions, Home Depot sales remained approximately flat year-over-year in May and July, while experiencing a 3% decline in June.
• An analyst from Stifel reaffirmed a ’buy’ rating for Home Depot, raising the price target from $425.00 to $432.00. Prior to this update, Home Depot held 25 buy ratings, 11 hold ratings, and 1 sell rating.

HD Q2 2025 earnings before market at 6:00 AM Tuesday August 19, 2025

Technical Analysis Perspective

• Home Depot broke through a declining trend line from 439.37, recorded in November 2024.
• The stock declined to 326.31 in early April 2025, forming a weekly hammer-like candlestick, indicating potential bullish sentiment.
• The candlestick pattern suggests a technical bullish bias.
• The stock rebounded strongly, surpassing 380–390 resistance, reaching a high of 407.82 last week.
• Post-earnings, HD may retrace to 387–386 to test the falling trendline.
• A sustained hold above 387–386 could target a move higher toward 415, with potential to reach 420–425, possibly filling an opening price gap from November 2024 after the US elections.
• Conversely, failure to hold 387–386, followed by a drop below 379, would invalidate the bullish outlook, possibly sending the price lower to support zones around 350–340.

Weekly Candlestick Chart

HD Seasonality Chart

Since 2006, Home Depot has experienced an average increase of 2.6% in August, with positive performance in 55% of those years, and an average rise of 0.6% in September, occurring in 47% of years.

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Ali Merchant is a seasoned financial market professional with expertise in Technical Analysis, Treasury & Capital Markets, Trading, Sales, Research, Training, Fund & Relationship Management, Fintech, and Digitalization. He is a CMT charter holder and an active member of CMT Association, USA, American Association of Professional Technical Analysts, and CMT Association of Canada. He has worked on various roles and organizations in North America and the GCC, such as ABN Amro bank, Thomson Reuters, Refinitiv, MAK Allen & Day Capital Partners (WA:CPAP), and Bridge Information Systems.

He is the founder of TwT Learnings, provides financial market training.

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