Raytheon awarded $71 million in Navy contracts for missile systems
The Nasdaq 100 Futures market is at a decisive crossroads — both technically and fundamentally — as we move through a new Gann time cycle and brace for mounting macro volatility under the reinstated Trump administration.
After peaking at 23,845 on July 28th, the market declined sharply to 22,775, marking the end of a precise 9-day Gann corrective window. This pivot low is now giving way to what appears to be the early stages of a bullish 3-day rally cycle into August 9th.
Technically, /NQ has reclaimed the Daily VC PMI of 23,002 and is holding above the Weekly pivot at 23,168, suggesting short-term bullish momentum. However, price has encountered strong resistance between 23,430 and 23,619, a cluster of Fibonacci retracements and Square of 9 harmonic arcs — which have thus far capped the rebound.
But beyond the charts, the macro and political landscape has dramatically shifted — and markets are recalibrating to the new tone out of Washington.
Trump Administration Recalibrates Markets Ahead of September Fed Meeting
With President Donald Trump back in office, the administration has revived a more aggressive stance on tariffs, deregulation, and central bank pressure, all of which are now shaping Nasdaq price behavior.
- The White House is reportedly preparing a new round of technology-focused tariffs on China, including AI chips, green tech, and robotics components — citing national security concerns and intellectual property violations.
- This has heightened geopolitical uncertainty, especially for mega-cap tech names with global supply chains and exposure to Chinese manufacturing.
- Meanwhile, President Trump has openly criticized the Federal Reserve, suggesting that elevated rates are unnecessary and counterproductive. However, the Fed — still chaired by Jerome Powell — remains independent and data-dependent, with a key policy decision looming at the September 17–18 FOMC meeting.
Fed Watch – September Hike in Play?
- As of today, Fed Funds Futures are pricing in a 40% chance of a rate hike at the September meeting.
- The rebound in job growth and uptick in wage inflation are giving the Fed justification to remain hawkish — even in the face of political pressure.
- If upcoming CPI data on August 13 surprises to the upside, the probability of a September hike could jump sharply, increasing pressure on growth stocks and Nasdaq valuations.
Macro Risks Under Trump 2.0
- Geopolitics: Increased risk of trade war escalation — specifically in semiconductors, cloud infrastructure, and AI exports.
- Tech Sentiment: The Trump administration’s “America First” push is creating policy uncertainty for multinational tech firms, especially those involved in cross-border licensing and intellectual property.
- Bond Yields: The 10-year yield remains elevated above 4.45%, tightening financial conditions and weighing on forward earnings multiples.
Technical + Fundamental Outlook
From a technical standpoint, /NQ remains in a recovery phase, but faces a tall wall of resistance at 23,619. This level represents both the 405° harmonic on the Square of 9 and the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement from the recent high. A sustained breakout above this level would clear the path for a re-test of 23,845 — and potentially new highs if momentum aligns.
However, the macro headwinds under the Trump administration’s assertive policy reset — combined with hawkish Fed undertones — are creating a fragile, headline-sensitive environment for Nasdaq stocks.
Trade Strategy Summary
- Bias: Cautiously Bullish above 23,002
- Breakout Trigger: 23,619
- Targets: 23,845 (prior high)
- Failure Trigger: Below 23,002 → Targets: 22,657 and 22,429
- Cycle Timing: Bullish window through August 9 (Gann time)
Final Thoughts
The Nasdaq is caught between technical momentum and macro policy friction. On one side, we have powerful time-cycle support and bullish VC PMI structure. On the other, we have rising geopolitical tensions, a hawkish Fed, and a Trump administration pushing for major shifts in trade and economic policy.
This confluence demands clarity, discipline, and readiness. Let the charts guide your entries — and let the macro steer your position sizing.
This is not just a market. It’s a battlefield of policy, money, and timing.
***
TRADING DERIVATIVES, FINANCIAL INSTRUMENTS AND PRECIOUS METALS INVOLVES SIGNIFICANT RISK OF LOSS AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR EVERYONE. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.