NVIDIA expands Microsoft partnership with Blackwell GPUs for AI infrastructure
- US stock futures showed little direction after the government reopened, with traders staying cautious.
- Tech stocks appear overextended after months of strong gains, prompting rotation toward defensive names.
- Nasdaq 100 remains in a bullish trend, though short-term weakness may test key support levels.
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US stock index futures, including Nasdaq 100 futures, struggled this morning to make headway, with traders seemingly unsure which way to turn now that the longest government shutdown in history has finally come to an end. Was this priced? Was it ever a bearish factor, given that stocks largely rallied during the shutdown?
But one clear thing is that after a stunning rally that kicked off in April, technology stocks have started to look a bit overcooked over the past few weeks, a period marked by data droughts and mounting nerves over tech valuations, and a lack of any fresh catalysts. Don’t be surprised if markets remain range-bound for a while, although it is too early to say we have seen the peak in this cycle.
Fed’s Rate Path To Become Clearer With Government Reopening
Now, as the government reopens, we will hopefully have some economic data releases to delve into. Although, as per the While House, we probably won’t see any data for October, including CPI and payrolls, we will likely have the November data released early in December.
There is still more than half a month to go until then. So, for now, volatility induced by data should stay subdued, but other factors, such as profit-taking amid valuation or other concerns, could spice things up. In terms of what’s the Fed’s next move? Well, markets still can’t quite make up their mind with 15 basis points of rate cuts priced, meaning there is more room for dovish pricing.
Tech Stocks Lag
Tech stocks, the darlings of Wall Street’s AI-driven boom this year and in recent years, are starting to lag a little bit. It’s becoming clear that investors may be growing uneasy about how far, and how fast, the AI narrative has carried prices. In recent sessions, it looks like traders have rotated out of growth and back into the safety of defensive and value names.
Is this a sign that risk appetite is wearing thin, or just normal rotation you find in a bull market? I guess time will tell, but as always, take nothing for granted and be on your toes when trading these markets. We have seen lots of insider selling in tech, and that is usually not a great sign.
Nasdaq 100 Technical Analysis
Looking at the chart of the Nasdaq 100, there is no question about the long-term trend, which remains bullish. But in the short term, we have seen a few lower highs form as the index hit an exhaustion level at the end of October. That was around the 26,100-26,400 area. The lower end of this range marks the 161.8% Fibonacci extension level of the last significant downswing, as shown on the chart.
In terms of short-term levels to watch, the lows from the last couple of days have been around the 25,500 zone, which makes it an important level to monitor today. Break that, and the hammer head from last Friday’s range at 25,355 is the next stop.
The low of that day’s range comes in at 24,709, which is now the line in the sand for me. That’s because if we get to that area, we will have broken a bullish trend line that has been in place since May. Ahead of that level, 25,000 is another important support to watch, should we get there.
On the upside, the short-term resistance trend comes in at the 25,700-50 area, above which 25850 and 26,000 are the next potential resistance levels to watch, before the focus turns to the aforementioned range between 26,100 and 26,400.
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Disclaimer: This article is written for informational purposes only; it does not constitute a solicitation, offer, advice, counsel or recommendation to invest as such it is not intended to incentivize the purchase of assets in any way. I would like to remind you that any type of asset, is evaluated from multiple perspectives and is highly risky and therefore, any investment decision and the associated risk remains with the investor.